The Official Ames Straw Poll Thread

Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll -- decisively

In a presidential race scrambled a few hours earlier by the entry of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the results of the Republican straw poll in Ames, Iowa, Rep. Michele Bachmann convincingly blew away her eight competitors Saturday.

Of the 16,892 votes cast during the day-long convention/carnival, Bachmann received 4,823 votes, edging out Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who received 4,671. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty came in third with fewer than half of the votes for Bachmann, garnering 2,293.

In a contest that had been cast as a head-to-head battle between Minnesota's two very different candidates, the results showed that Pawlenty's big-bucks tortoise strategy over the past two years wasn't able to surmount Bachmann's zippity hare-like strategy that has made her the new media's political figure of the week. For all of Pawlenty's careful groundwork, the obvious grassroots enthusiasm for Bachmann was too much to overcome.

In a quadrennial poll that is essentially a fundraiser for the Hawkeye State's GOP and has come to wield an inordinate amount of influence in Republican presidential politics. Although rarelly predictive of the party's eventual nominee, the poll has had the ability to drive candidates out of the race.

Pundits in recent days said that Pawlenty's survival depended on a strong showing in the poll, that unless he came in the top three finishers, his campaign was finished. There was no immediate reaction from the Bachmann campaign, but Pawlenty told the Associated Press that "we have a lot more work to do. We are just beginning and I'm looking forward to a great campaign."

In the days leading up to the poll, it was increasingly billed as a two-candidate showdown between an Iowa native (Bachmann) and the governor of the state just up the interstate (Pawlenty). But the big-footed entry of Perry into the race Saturday afternoon complicated the campaigns of both Minnesotans.

But Perry -- who received 718 write-in votes, good enough for sixth place in the poll -- is widely expected to peel off an unknown number of Bachmann's conservative evangelical supporters while undercutting Pawlenty's argument that his governmental executive experience makes him the most electable Republican candidate. Perry is the nation's longest-serving governor.

Even as the results of Saturday's straw poll are being digested (and regurgitated) by the nation's pundit class, Bachmann and Perry are headed for Waterloo, Iowa, Sunday -- which just happens to be Bachmann's hometown.
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Granted, this is a Minnesota paper so they're more interested in the Minnesota candidates, but come on.
 
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nocompromises said:
I am not pessimistic.

I am realistic.

I think we can win the nomination, but we will not win it with second place finishes.

A second place finish is NOT bad, but it is NOT what we need.

We need to start willing straw polls with a big margin. We can do this now, but we need to work harder.

The fact is...

The mainstream media is against us.
The majority of Republican and Democrat politicians are against us.
The other candidates are against us.

Last time around, we saw how hard things were. The media brought out the stupid racist card and they played all sorts of stupid tricks. Do you remember how they played laughter in the debates when Ron Paul answered questions? Do you remember how they turned off his ear piece so that he could not hear questions?

Things are going to get even worse for us now, because we are doing even better.

If you think they were unfair last time, they are going to be even WORSE this time.

The only way we are going to win this nomination, is if we work harder than ever before!
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+rep when you're unbanned
 
orenbus said:
This is exactly what I was talking about. Although It's great we got Ron got 2nd place we can't assume based on speculation that we will win these types of contests and overestimate our chances when it comes to primaries. We need to underestimate our chances to the point where we are doing a lot more work than what is actually needed to win. Imagine if some people knew ahead of time that it was going to be this close, I don't I just feel if we concentrate more on things like Buses, transportation, temporary housing, supplies, etc. It will have more of an impact on this campaign actually winning. We were talking about 200 people, when it comes to the early primaries we need to learn from this lesson and make sure we are prepared and under estimate our chances so that we can exceed expectations, including our own.
Click to expand...

I'd like a serious debate on this as well. I'd like to talk about what worked and what didn't. Not really this thread necessarily.

Would our own rock concert, separate from the straw poll, but close enough to bring in bodies, would that have helped? We discussed this idea, but it appeared that the consensus was "too risky". Many ideas were shot down as too risky.

I'm not going to say that our outcome was any worse than it would've been if we had pulled out all the stops. I would've enjoyed a 1st place finish more than the close 2nd we got. So my pleasure level is below where it would've been. A close 2nd is great. If we did the concert, or the festival, bringing in the very demographic where we're strongest - young, male, independent, and transporting them to the straw poll, we probably could've picked up 152 votes from that.

The risk of a local paper trying to get us, by paying close attention to every word every rock band said on stage was thought to be too great.

Whatever votes we could've got from there were irrelevant. Because it's possible that someone on stage at the grassroots event could have sworn. And in fantasy land (where some of us live) a singer in a rock band swearing is a very big news story, and it's just too risky to attempt.

Now, many think that we lost because we were beat by BETTER MUSIC. We were assured that a grassroots rock concert was unecessary, because the official campaign had it covered.

I'm pleased with the results. Bachmann won't be there in 2012. Which means we're first. The results also say "Iowa loves Tea Party". Bachmann and Paul 1 and 2, Those 2 candidates, the tea party candidates, with 56% of the vote. No establishment RINO did at all well. Pawlenty, with no competition on the ground from Romney, did nothing.

Tea Party Is Strong - is the real message coming out of Iowa.
 
wgadget said:
Nah. Shouldn't it be 152/16892 x 100 ? Which comes out MUCH MUCH SMALLER.

I don't have my calculator with me.
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I'm just talking about the spread between them. I guess when you do it the other way 152/16892 x 100 = .89%

If I remember my learnins' right, that's what they call statistically insignificant.
 
Look guys, Bachmann ain't shit. True story. If you want to talk "unelectable", she defines it. People will remember her for country music and ranting about Obama. They will remember RP for talking about peace, the value of human life, and reclaiming our freedoms. I predict a lot of team Bachmann ends up on Team Paul when she inevitably flames out.
 
tfurrh said:
Michelle has no chance of winning the nomination. The front runners now are Paul, Perry, and Romney. The cool thing is Perry and Romney will split the establishment vote. We just have to double our efforts in spreading the Ron Paul message.
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palin
 
svobody said:
"Former George W. Bush advisor Matt Dowd said the results show that the field is wide open in Iowa and elsewhere, especially since Ron Paul -- "a pro-drug, apologize-to-Iran guy who could never win the nomination" -- finished such a strong second.

"Nobody is in that strong a position, and Paul can't win. So people are going to have hungry ears to listen to Perry," said Dowd, who was Bush's pollster and a top advisor in the 2000 and 2004 campaigns."



the spin starts NOW!
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Gardasil Rick Perry is "pro-drug" as well. In fact, he forces you to take those drugs.
 
parocks said:
I'd like a serious debate on this as well. I'd like to talk about what worked and what didn't. Not really this thread necessarily.

Would our own rock concert, separate from the straw poll, but close enough to bring in bodies, would that have helped? We discussed this idea, but it appeared that the consensus was "too risky". Many ideas were shot down as too risky.

I'm not going to say that our outcome was any worse than it would've been if we had pulled out all the stops. I would've enjoyed a 1st place finish more than the close 2nd we got. So my pleasure level is below where it would've been. A close 2nd is great. If we did the concert, or the festival, bringing in the very demographic where we're strongest - young, male, independent, and transporting them to the straw poll, we probably could've picked up 152 votes from that.

The risk of a local paper trying to get us, by paying close attention to every word every rock band said on stage was thought to be too great.

Whatever votes we could've got from there were irrelevant. Because it's possible that someone on stage at the grassroots event could have sworn. And in fantasy land (where some of us live) a singer in a rock band swearing is a very big news story, and it's just too risky to attempt.

Now, many think that we lost because we were beat by BETTER MUSIC. We were assured that a grassroots rock concert was unecessary, because the official campaign had it covered.

I'm pleased with the results. Bachmann won't be there in 2012. Which means we're first. The results also say "Iowa loves Tea Party". Bachmann and Paul 1 and 2, Those 2 candidates, the tea party candidates, with 56% of the vote. No establishment RINO did at all well. Pawlenty, with no competition on the ground from Romney, did nothing.

Tea Party Is Strong - is the real message coming out of Iowa.
Click to expand...

I think the meme they play when Ron wins is that he 'bought' it. It is NEVER true, but they say it. I think it is terrific that this time Bachmann LITERALLY bought it

110813_bachmann_rule_465.jpg


and Ron didn't.
 
parocks said:
I'd like a serious debate on this as well. I'd like to talk about what worked and what didn't. Not really this thread necessarily.

Would our own rock concert, separate from the straw poll, but close enough to bring in bodies, would that have helped? We discussed this idea, but it appeared that the consensus was "too risky". Many ideas were shot down as too risky.

I'm not going to say that our outcome was any worse than it would've been if we had pulled out all the stops. I would've enjoyed a 1st place finish more than the close 2nd we got. So my pleasure level is below where it would've been. A close 2nd is great. If we did the concert, or the festival, bringing in the very demographic where we're strongest - young, male, independent, and transporting them to the straw poll, we probably could've picked up 152 votes from that.

The risk of a local paper trying to get us, by paying close attention to every word every rock band said on stage was thought to be too great.

Whatever votes we could've got from there were irrelevant. Because it's possible that someone on stage at the grassroots event could have sworn. And in fantasy land (where some of us live) a singer in a rock band swearing is a very big news story, and it's just too risky to attempt.

Now, many think that we lost because we were beat by BETTER MUSIC. We were assured that a grassroots rock concert was unecessary, because the official campaign had it covered.

I'm pleased with the results. Bachmann won't be there in 2012. Which means we're first. The results also say "Iowa loves Tea Party". Bachmann and Paul 1 and 2, Those 2 candidates, the tea party candidates, with 56% of the vote. No establishment RINO did at all well. Pawlenty, with no competition on the ground from Romney, did nothing.

Tea Party Is Strong - is the real message coming out of Iowa.
Click to expand...

Nah...Everything was perfect. If you would've hired a big name band, people would be saying what we're saying about Randy Travis. Better to win a razor-close second on RP's own merits. Just my opinion.
 
There are some real kooks on some websites who were actually putting ROMNEY in the winner's circle. I had to LOL.
 
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