A stopped clock is correct twice a day.
"You know, look, I know inflation is going to get worse in 2010. Whether it’s going to run out of control or it’s going to take until 2011 or 2012, but I know we’re going to have a major currency crisis coming soon. It’s going to dwarf the financial crisis and it’s going to send consumer prices absolutely ballistic, as well as interest rates and unemployment." - peter schiff in late 2009
Peter Schiff's Predictions
Wall Street / Economic Predictions
Source & Date
Accuracy
Comments
US economy is not strong and housing market will crash and we will have high unemployment December 16, 2006
Fox News Debate
Again on
August 8, 2007
Fox News
True Uncannily Accurate
It is worth noting that Peter Schiff was ridiculed by experts and he showed great courage. We do not believe it was a lucky guess. He did see signs that others missed. The video shows how right he was and how wrong the other so called "experts" are.
To his credit most economists and experts ignored the signs until the markets crashed in summer of 2008.
Two experts who warned about the economic crisis before Peter Schiff are
Dean Baker's warning in July 21, 2005
Med Jones' (US Economic Risks June, 2, 2006).
More detailed predictions can be found at:
Dean Baker Predictions
Med Jones Predictions
Interest rates will go higher and inflation will go higher December 16, 2006
Fox News Debate False Although he is right on his data of saving and mortgage he was off in his timing. Interested rate went lower in 2007, 2008, 2009 and there was deflation. Eventually we had inflation in late 2011. So he seem to be right on the trend wrong on the timing with 2-4 years.
Inflation in 2008 and 2009 False Deflation in 2008 & 2009
At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value in 2010
January 26, 2009
Source US News
False 12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008
Wrong about hyperinflation
Wrong about the dollar
Wrong about commodities except for gold
Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
Wrong about foreign equities
Wrong in timing
Wrong in risk management
Wrong in buy and hold thesis
Wrong on decoupling
Wrong on China
Wrong on US treasuries
Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic
Source US News
US dollars will go all the way to zero and gold will go at least $5,000 an ounce. Sep 9, 2009
Daily Finance False
US Equity Markets Will Crash True
US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation) like Zimbabwe False Dollar value declined, but no were close to to the expectation and Hyperinflation did not occur. If you invested based on this theory you would have lost a lot of money
Source: Mike Shedlock. Response to Mish's Criticism by Peter Schiff
Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.
False Foreign equities sold off much harder than US equities, and US dollar did not decline as much.
Peter Schiff Investment did that and they are down 40%
We Probably Won't Make It To 2012 Aug 26, 2010
Video
To be determined To be determined
US markets will crash like dominos so many things are bound to happen in 2011 The dollar will collapse and we will see a greater economic disaster
Dec 31, 2010
CNBC To be determined
When the dollar stops rallying it is going to fall like a stone
Jan 12, 2010
CNBC
False If investors shorted the dollar they would have lost
Buy commodities Jan 12, 2010
CNBC True Commodities were up. If investors bought commodities they would have won
Buy Gold Jan 12, 2010
CNBC True
US Economy will only get worse Jan 12, 2010
CNBC False In the video, he argues semantics. The fact is the US economy recovered in 2010 and added Jobs in 2011.
Foreign stock, gold and commodities to outperform US stocks Jan 12, 2010
CNBC True
US stock are heading a lot lower in 2009, 2010 and 2011 as well Jan 02, 2009
Bloomberg False Stocks recovered during 2009 and 2010.
Schiff predicts Nasdaq 500 and Dow 4000
2002
Video False The S&P (.INX) went from 1054 in May of 2002 (the date of the interview) to 1561 in Oct. 2007, a 48% gain and the Dow (.DJI) rose 40%. - Source:
Todd Sullivan Seeking Alpha. "had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered."
