wildermuthn
Member
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2007
- Messages
- 15
As I try to convince people of the utility of http://pledgebomb.com, I encounter a repeated theme: that the time to donate is now, that time is almost out, that Iowa and New Hampshire are the last final push.
There's some truth to that, of course. If Ron Paul doesn't place second (or higher) in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he's toast. But even if Ron Paul won both Iowa and New Hampshire, it would be only the beginning of a very long and very hard campaign that, at best, would lead to a brokered convention.
The GOP changed its rules from a winner-take-all delegate system to more of a proportional one (primaries held after March are still winner-take-all). Let's break down the numbers:
If history repeats itself and the 'front-runner' receives 40% of the vote before April 1st, then the front-runner will only receive 490 delegates.
Looking at the rest of the schedule by month, we see this:
This means there is no way for the front-runner to clinch the nomination before June. There simply aren't enough delegates. He can certainly run away with the election, but he can't clinch it.
What this means is that April is the make or break month, not January, not February, not March. The nomination process that caused McCain to get seventy percent of the delegates with only forty percent of the popular vote in 2008 no longer exists.
This is encouraging news! But it should also be sobering news. It means that if the GOP continues to be divided over Romney (and do we see this changing?), that the race will be in question late into May and into June.
The nomination, as it turns National, will ultimately hinge on money. This means Mitt Romney and someone else. This means that raising money for Ron Paul takes on paramount importance (after winning or placing in Iowa and New Hampshire).
For this reason, I've proposed the construction of a high-quality professional moneybomb website, a next-generation moneybomb based upon the 'threshold pledge' used by Kickstarter.com and others. The idea is simple: you give money, but only if other people give money too. I'll give ten bucks a month for ten months, but only if a hundred thousand other people do too.
There are more details on http://pledgebomb.com.
I believe that raising hundreds of millions of dollars will be vital to Ron Paul fracturing this nomination process and going into a brokered convention. We need to move beyond simple landing pages and nice banners and tickers. We need some cutting edge technology for the strongest grassroots movement in American history (and might I add, the most tech-savvy!)
Go Ron Paul!
There's some truth to that, of course. If Ron Paul doesn't place second (or higher) in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he's toast. But even if Ron Paul won both Iowa and New Hampshire, it would be only the beginning of a very long and very hard campaign that, at best, would lead to a brokered convention.
The GOP changed its rules from a winner-take-all delegate system to more of a proportional one (primaries held after March are still winner-take-all). Let's break down the numbers:
- Total Delegates at stake: 2,288
- Total Delegates at stake before April 1 (proportional): 1227
- Total Delegates at stake after April 1 (winner-take-all): 1061
If history repeats itself and the 'front-runner' receives 40% of the vote before April 1st, then the front-runner will only receive 490 delegates.
- Total Delegates needed to clinch nomination: 1,144
- Total Delegates needed by front-runner after April 1: 654
Looking at the rest of the schedule by month, we see this:
- Delegates at stake in April: 329
- Delegates at stake in May: 277
- Delegates at stake in June: 405
This means there is no way for the front-runner to clinch the nomination before June. There simply aren't enough delegates. He can certainly run away with the election, but he can't clinch it.
What this means is that April is the make or break month, not January, not February, not March. The nomination process that caused McCain to get seventy percent of the delegates with only forty percent of the popular vote in 2008 no longer exists.
This is encouraging news! But it should also be sobering news. It means that if the GOP continues to be divided over Romney (and do we see this changing?), that the race will be in question late into May and into June.
The nomination, as it turns National, will ultimately hinge on money. This means Mitt Romney and someone else. This means that raising money for Ron Paul takes on paramount importance (after winning or placing in Iowa and New Hampshire).
For this reason, I've proposed the construction of a high-quality professional moneybomb website, a next-generation moneybomb based upon the 'threshold pledge' used by Kickstarter.com and others. The idea is simple: you give money, but only if other people give money too. I'll give ten bucks a month for ten months, but only if a hundred thousand other people do too.
There are more details on http://pledgebomb.com.
I believe that raising hundreds of millions of dollars will be vital to Ron Paul fracturing this nomination process and going into a brokered convention. We need to move beyond simple landing pages and nice banners and tickers. We need some cutting edge technology for the strongest grassroots movement in American history (and might I add, the most tech-savvy!)
Go Ron Paul!
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