The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

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Honeybadger Pro

SOLD 226.75

subclass 5.3 and 5.4 are red dragon unlimited subclasses that typically follow each other in rapid succession. They're a "checkpoint" trade pair that attempts to snag a short bottom amid a greater volatile decent. The buy element missed the money mark for a bear market currency gain; nonetheless we continue downward on a small loss of shares holding fiat.

 

[Okie RP fan]

I've lost quite a bit since I bought last month.
Expected, but, this is quite a turn so quick… I've been reading around and it has a lot of people freaked out right now about how quickly the drop has gone on.

 

[amonasro]

Yesterday:
Fast and panicky selloff on high volume, indicative of a selling climax
Bitfinex sprung just below January's low of $166 ($162) on the margin cascade and swiftly recovered
Bitstamp made a long-term higher low @ $221
Futures made a long-term higher low

Today:
Futures market successfully retested the lows on lower volume
Bitstamp made a slightly higher low ($222) on medium volume
Action today is trading near the lows but volume and volatility are starting to dry up, indicating that most of the supply at this level has been absorbed without falling to new lows (this will enhance the effectiveness of buying that comes through)

Overall this is somewhat bullish but it's clear that some holders are being led to panic sell over the XT drama judging from the volume today on Bitstamp. I'm out of position until there is a clearer view of what's going on and to see how much selling is waiting to reveal itself. If we retest near the lows again tomorrow and it holds, I might consider going in long with part of my capital. Part of me believes the XT drama will simply blow over and the miners will refuse to adopt it amid the uncertainty. Gavin and Mike will have egg on their face and learned an important lesson not to wield their power to shoehorn things into the protocol and making the issue much more black and white than it needs to be.

Also I grabbed a few more coins around $225 for good measure

 

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

so when is it going to go back up to at least $260?

 

[muh_roads]

Yesterday:
Fast and panicky selloff on high volume, indicative of a selling climax
Bitfinex sprung just below January's low of $166 ($162) on the margin cascade and swiftly recovered
Bitstamp made a long-term higher low @ $221
Futures made a long-term higher low

Today:
Futures market successfully retested the lows on lower volume
Bitstamp made a slightly higher low ($222) on medium volume
Action today is trading near the lows but volume and volatility are starting to dry up, indicating that most of the supply at this level has been absorbed without falling to new lows (this will enhance the effectiveness of buying that comes through)

Overall this is somewhat bullish but it's clear that some holders are being led to panic sell over the XT drama judging from the volume today on Bitstamp. I'm out of position until there is a clearer view of what's going on and to see how much selling is waiting to reveal itself. If we retest near the lows again tomorrow and it holds, I might consider going in long with part of my capital. Part of me believes the XT drama will simply blow over and the miners will refuse to adopt it amid the uncertainty. Gavin and Mike will have egg on their face and learned an important lesson not to wield their power to shoehorn things into the protocol and making the issue much more black and white than it needs to be.

Also I grabbed a few more coins around $225 for good measure

Thanks for that analysis.

Track this every day...Explanation in the top-right corner when you hover.

http://xtnodes.com/

I'm not sure what to make of XT. Roger Ver and all the early adopting anti-gov/anti-war people like him seem on board.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Yesterday:
Fast and panicky selloff on high volume, indicative of a selling climax
Bitfinex sprung just below January's low of $166 ($162) on the margin cascade and swiftly recovered
Bitstamp made a long-term higher low @ $221
Futures made a long-term higher low

Today:
Futures market successfully retested the lows on lower volume
Bitstamp made a slightly higher low ($222) on medium volume
Action today is trading near the lows but volume and volatility are starting to dry up, indicating that most of the supply at this level has been absorbed without falling to new lows (this will enhance the effectiveness of buying that comes through)

Overall this is somewhat bullish but it's clear that some holders are being led to panic sell over the XT drama judging from the volume today on Bitstamp. I'm out of position until there is a clearer view of what's going on and to see how much selling is waiting to reveal itself. If we retest near the lows again tomorrow and it holds, I might consider going in long with part of my capital. Part of me believes the XT drama will simply blow over and the miners will refuse to adopt it amid the uncertainty. Gavin and Mike will have egg on their face and learned an important lesson not to wield their power to shoehorn things into the protocol and making the issue much more black and white than it needs to be.

Also I grabbed a few more coins around $225 for good measure

I have to disagree that this is anywhere near climactic. The selling was fast, but it was not a panic except on BFX, which was really just because of a technical glitch on that one exchange. Bitstamp did not crash nearly as hard and the volume on both exchanges is dwarfed by the other most recent bitcoin crashes in comparison. This is very bearish. We could see a washout below $100 IMO.

This is why there's no reason to call this a higher low yet. We've only just reached this level and an actual low hasn't been established, especially on the scale you're looking at to see it as a higher low. For now, we're just consolidating very near the apparent interim bottom, which is actually quite bearish.

 

[amonasro]

I have to disagree that this is anywhere near climactic. The selling was fast, but it was not a panic except on BFX, which was really just because of a technical glitch on that one exchange. Bitstamp did not crash nearly as hard and the volume on both exchanges is dwarfed by the other most recent bitcoin crashes in comparison. This is very bearish. We could see a washout below $100 IMO.

This is why there's no reason to call this a higher low yet. We've only just reached this level and an actual low hasn't been established, especially on the scale you're looking at to see it as a higher low. For now, we're just consolidating very near the apparent interim bottom, which is actually quite bearish.

I had considered the differences in exchanges. The bfx run did clean out a lot of longs--that was no glitch. All of those coins that were waiting to sell at higher prices are now liquidated, consolidated into fewer hands. This will reduce the sell pressure going forward. And if they want back in, they'll have to buy.

I think the price action was climactic (maybe on a smaller scale) in that the candle spread was very wide yet closed pretty far off the lows on the 3d chart. It also caused a lot of fear and panic selling. The fact that there wasn't high volume (relative to January) is actually bullish to me. It indicates that there's not enough supply floating around to push lower. A washout below $100 would take big volume, and the lack of it on a retest of $220 with less volume (and on a higher low) is bullish.

Take for instance the price action on Stamp: Double bottom with contracting volume on the secondary test, then the price jumps immediately into an upward consolidation. To some it's a bear flag but to me I see a market stripped of selling with some decent demand. Now it's simply knocking on upward resistance with a few brave bears shorting and some laggards cashing out, waiting for a bit of demand to push it above.

In a market that has seen so much overhanging supply absorbed after a 7 month accumulation range and where many of the most tenacious holders and longs were just shaken out, I'm seeing the strength with the bulls simply because the bears have all gone home. If we close significantly above the lows on the weekly chart (candle set to paint on Sunday) I will be even more bullish and may label this as a shakeout before the rally out of the range--a classic bear trap--but we'll wait and see

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I had considered the differences in exchanges. The bfx run did clean out a lot of longs--that was no glitch. All of those coins that were waiting to sell at higher prices are now liquidated, consolidated into fewer hands. This will reduce the sell pressure going forward. And if they want back in, they'll have to buy.

I think the price action was climactic (maybe on a smaller scale) in that the candle spread was very wide yet closed pretty far off the lows on the 3d chart. It also caused a lot of fear and panic selling. The fact that there wasn't high volume (relative to January) is actually bullish to me. It indicates that there's not enough supply floating around to push lower. A washout below $100 would take big volume, and the lack of it on a retest of $220 with less volume (and on a higher low) is bullish.

Take for instance the price action on Stamp: Double bottom with contracting volume on the secondary test, then the price jumps immediately into an upward consolidation. To some it's a bear flag but to me I see a market stripped of selling with some decent demand. Now it's simply knocking on upward resistance with a few brave bears shorting and some laggards cashing out, waiting for a bit of demand to push it above.

In a market that has seen so much overhanging supply absorbed after a 7 month accumulation range and where many of the most tenacious holders and longs were just shaken out, I'm seeing the strength with the bulls simply because the bears have all gone home. If we close significantly above the lows on the weekly chart (candle set to paint on Sunday) I will be even more bullish and may label this as a shakeout before the rally out of the range--a classic bear trap--but we'll wait and see

Like I said, we've only just reached this level, so don't conflate your time scales. This may be bullish on a very short term basis, but bears are still in control, and the lack of volume says nothing as there is no clear bottom yet and it has only been consolidating here for a few days. We could be at the beginning of an accelerating downturn. The lack of volume says either we are running out of sell volume or the sellers haven't really come in yet, and based on the preceding technicals, including the freshly broken uptrend and the overall sentiment, I believe this indicates that the sellers have yet to arrive en masse. You know climactic selling when you see it, and this was not it. There's no indication that this should reverse yet.

Also, I know the BFX crash wasn't actually a glitch, but it's really only because the servers had trouble filling orders quickly enough, which resulted in a ton of slippage. In any case, we can see that Bitstamp stopped, quite appropriately, at the important $220 level.

 

[amonasro]

At any rate, I'm out of the market until the XT drama has blown over. My concern is if the debate drags on and miners begin selling...

Not really a huge reason to be overly bearish quite yet, just in case a solution is found, ie if the devs implement a very small block size solution without extra "features" like node IP blacklisting--yeah that's in XT (supposedly to protect from a DDOS attack, but it opens a door I don't like)--and everyone jumps on board quickly. Anything to remove uncertainty would bump demand at these low prices. If I were a dev I'd be working my butt off to get something on the table, because if we fall below $200 and can't get back above I fear that we'd see a much more bearish situation that might unravel very quickly.

 

[muh_roads]

At any rate, I'm out of the market until the XT drama has blown over. My concern is if the debate drags on and miners begin selling...

Not really a huge reason to be overly bearish quite yet, just in case a solution is found, ie if the devs implement a very small block size solution without extra "features" like node IP blacklisting--yeah that's in XT (supposedly to protect from a DDOS attack, but it opens a door I don't like)--and everyone jumps on board quickly. Anything to remove uncertainty would bump demand at these low prices. If I were a dev I'd be working my butt off to get something on the table, because if we fall below $200 and can't get back above I fear that we'd see a much more bearish situation that might unravel very quickly.

I view it like this. XT exists because Core doesn't take action and doesn't innovate on anything. The 3 core devs hating on XT have vested interests in sidechains to solve their solutions for off-chain transactions. I think sidechains are interesting but it is still theory and their implementation could be another year away yet. Satoshi always said the blocksize would need to increase to keep up with payment networks like Visa. Gavin says if the doubling path is too much, 8MB, then 16MB 2 years later, etc, it could be reduced with a simple softfork once XT finally wins out.

I feel like supporting XT because I prefer solutions. Bitcoin has been fine under Gavin for a long time. He implemented multi-sig. He fixed the Feb 2013 fork mess. I think we can trust him. I don't think he would be on board if Mike Hearn had mischievous plans. The Tor node thing can be disabled if you read the comment sections of the articles out there. When it is on, I believe it only kicks in if the 125 max node connections get hammered. People are saying it is temp code that was trying to stop Gavin from getting the exact same DDOS one time.

It's all just nerd shit drama IMO. The XT nodes mine on the same block chain. I'm positive this will all work itself out. It will show the power of miner consensus in action. Gavin carefully made XT so the transition would be as smooth as possible.

I've seen way messier hard forks by less skilled people do it with shitcoins and things resolve fine.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

At any rate, I'm out of the market until the XT drama has blown over. My concern is if the debate drags on and miners begin selling...

Not really a huge reason to be overly bearish quite yet, just in case a solution is found, ie if the devs implement a very small block size solution without extra "features" like node IP blacklisting--yeah that's in XT (supposedly to protect from a DDOS attack, but it opens a door I don't like)--and everyone jumps on board quickly. Anything to remove uncertainty would bump demand at these low prices. If I were a dev I'd be working my butt off to get something on the table, because if we fall below $200 and can't get back above I fear that we'd see a much more bearish situation that might unravel very quickly.

The fear is very real, and I think the fear you have is evidence that that's exactly what's going to happen.

I just want to make sure nobody's smoking the hopium. When the price crashes and then bumps up against support and crawls sideways, it's looking for an escape route down. Something major has to happen for the bulls to take charge at that point. Any technical analyst knows that this is not a bullish market, it's an accelerating bear market where crashes are followed by sideways consolidation near the lows. Climaxes are characterized, not just by fast price action with volume, but by a clear change in direction, which we have most certainly not seen here. Another thing is that climaxes really only occur on larger time frames. The fall should be accompanied by a sense of impending doom in which a seemingly endless drop appears to be occurring.

First, you said you thought the fast price action with high volume was bullish, then you decided that the lack of volume was also bullish, so I fear that you are under the influence of a bullish bias, the kind that comes right before the ACTUAL crash. The price action we are seeing right now is just too obvious to miss, and it's anything but bullish.

Be warned, fellow RPFers.

 

[Dianne]

I was thinking about buying silver coins with my bitcoin. I think that might be a safer bet at this point. I still can't reach anyone at AmagiMetals so not sure if they are even open anymore. Know any other coin dealers who accept btc?

 

[amonasro]

The fear is very real, and I think the fear you have is evidence that that's exactly what's going to happen.

I just want to make sure nobody's smoking the hopium. When the price crashes and then bumps up against support and crawls sideways, it's looking for an escape route down. Something major has to happen for the bulls to take charge at that point. Any technical analyst knows that this is not a bullish market, it's an accelerating bear market where crashes are followed by sideways consolidation near the lows. Climaxes are characterized, not just by fast price action with volume, but by a clear change in direction, which we have most certainly not seen here. Another thing is that climaxes really only occur on larger time frames. The fall should be accompanied by a sense of impending doom in which a seemingly endless drop appears to be occurring.

First, you said you thought the fast price action with high volume was bullish, then you decided that the lack of volume was also bullish, so I fear that you are under the influence of a bullish bias, the kind that comes right before the ACTUAL crash. The price action we are seeing right now is just too obvious to miss, and it's anything but bullish.

Be warned, fellow RPFers.

I'm not in a position nor do I recommend anyone to be. This could easily skid lower. But I wouldn't wait for $100 just yet.

Analysis must be contextual. An existing trend sets up the supply and demand conditions for the next trend--they do not occur in a vacuum nor are they arbitrary in size and length. There cannot be unlimited ammunition (supply or demand) to create and support a trend in either direction no matter what the indicators say or how scary or euphoric things seem. On the largest timescales, the quality of ownership of the floating supply available for sale will generally determine whether a market is poised to move up or down. (At market tops after a buying climax a vast number of weak hands hold most of it having bought at high prices. They are immediately under pressure to sell once the price begins falling. This creates a bear market. At market bottoms after a grueling downtrend and a selling climax it's the opposite--conditions are created for a bull market.) This has a trickle-down effect to smaller scales which should frame that anaylsis within the larger context, bringing us to this week's action.

After a a year long downtrend, a major selling climax and multiple failures to break $200, the market was in a position to base and rally past $300. The ownership transfer of hundreds of thousands of coins over the course of 7 months had the effect of creating a shortage which amplified existing demand. This put the market in an oversold condition and in a position to easily move up. We've already seen evidence of this. Now we have the XT drama which is adding a lot of uncertainty but does not change the technical state of the market--it's still oversold. Until I see major volume coming in to suggest that very large interests are unloading, the market will continue to be in that oversold state where sellers are few and demand is amplified. Remember the only reason we are here is because someone risked a monster 10,000 coin short on Finex, possibly the same person or group that was absorbing thousands of coins at higher prices (they pulled their support walls minutes before the short). One must wonder what their ultimate motive is and what effect their past accumulation (and others') is having on the price today.

Volume can be bearish or bullish in any quantity, it just depends on where and when it occurs (context) and how it affects the price bars--effort (volume) versus result (price) should ideally be in harmony. When they're not, someone is either buying or selling into that effort or lack of it, causing a temporary supply and demand imbalance: an overbought or oversold condition and a trading opportunity.

Hopefully that explains why I am cautiously bullish.

 

[muh_roads]

Enjoyable watching you both debate. Nice change of pace in here.

I think the limited supply allure has to play a part in the psychology of the market. Everyone has a price but some permabulls can afford any price. We're at those levels I'd think would get major support by the Branson/Silbert/Voorhees/Draper/Ver/Byrnes-types of the world.

When we're talking about low volume, I wouldn't look at usd data. Bitfinex was able to spook the markets but for most of the time China is where the volume is at. OKCoin, Huobi, and BTCChina volume dominates Bitstamp, Bitfinex, BTC-e by many times over.

No transaction fees on CNY, supposedly...

 

[muh_roads]

I was thinking about buying silver coins with my bitcoin. I think that might be a safer bet at this point. I still can't reach anyone at AmagiMetals so not sure if they are even open anymore. Know any other coin dealers who accept btc?

If you don't want usd maybe something like bitgold would be good for you to park in. That way you can move back into BTC when you feel ready with zero weight and zero transportation effort.

https://www.bitgold.com/

I think they take US customers now. Not sure if you can take delivery on their little gold cubes. Other countries can.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm not in a position nor do I recommend anyone to be. This could easily skid lower. But I wouldn't wait for $100 just yet.

Analysis must be contextual. An existing trend sets up the supply and demand conditions for the next trend--they do not occur in a vacuum nor are they arbitrary in size and length. There cannot be unlimited ammunition (supply or demand) to create and support a trend in either direction no matter what the indicators say or how scary or euphoric things seem. On the largest timescales, the quality of ownership of the floating supply available for sale will generally determine whether a market is poised to move up or down. (At market tops after a buying climax a vast number of weak hands hold most of it having bought at high prices. They are immediately under pressure to sell once the price begins falling. This creates a bear market. At market bottoms after a grueling downtrend and a selling climax it's the opposite--conditions are created for a bull market.) This has a trickle-down effect to smaller scales which should frame that anaylsis within the larger context, bringing us to this week's action.

After a a year long downtrend, a major selling climax and multiple failures to break $200, the market was in a position to base and rally past $300. The ownership transfer of hundreds of thousands of coins over the course of 7 months had the effect of creating a shortage which amplified existing demand. This put the market in an oversold condition and in a position to easily move up. We've already seen evidence of this. Now we have the XT drama which is adding a lot of uncertainty but does not change the technical state of the market--it's still oversold. Until I see major volume coming in to suggest that very large interests are unloading, the market will continue to be in that oversold state where sellers are few and demand is amplified. Remember the only reason we are here is because someone risked a monster 10,000 coin short on Finex, possibly the same person or group that was absorbing thousands of coins at higher prices (they pulled their support walls minutes before the short). One must wonder what their ultimate motive is and what effect their past accumulation (and others') is having on the price today.

Volume can be bearish or bullish in any quantity, it just depends on where and when it occurs (context) and how it affects the price bars--effort (volume) versus result (price) should ideally be in harmony. When they're not, someone is either buying or selling into that effort or lack of it, causing a temporary supply and demand imbalance: an overbought or oversold condition and a trading opportunity.

Hopefully that explains why I am cautiously bullish.

I agree with everything you just said and I'm still bearish. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, so the oversold condition is not enough to justify bullishness without some kind of capitulation. We're in the middle of a legit bear flag, so this is no time to be bullish in my humble, totally unbiased and completely correct opinion.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Enjoyable watching you both debate. Nice change of pace in here.

I think the limited supply allure has to play a part in the psychology of the market. Everyone has a price but some permabulls can afford any price. We're at those levels I'd think would get major support by the Branson/Silbert/Voorhees/Draper/Ver/Byrnes-types of the world.

When we're talking about low volume, I wouldn't look at usd data. Bitfinex was able to spook the markets but for most of the time China is where the volume is at. OKCoin, Huobi, and BTCChina volume dominates Bitstamp, Bitfinex, BTC-e by many times over.

No transaction fees on CNY, supposedly...

They also supposedly have fake volume, so I don't know if I would trust them, either.

Another popular analyst you seem to be following, 4xForecaster, is bearish and he has a good track record of making the right calls. His most recent idea suggests the market could panic all the way to $58. Then it's buy time, for real this time.

Now that you mention China, though, Huobi just made a new low, which puts it on the wrong side of that support zone.

 

[presence]

Honeybadger is holding again as of midnight last night

master signal bitfinex

[2015-08-22 23:24:00] 1 CRYPTO LONG 229.32 (5.4)
[2015-08-22 23:24:00] Approaching Subclass 1
[2015-08-22 23:24:00] Default Class Crypto Long

[2015-08-22 23:24:00] BUY: 0.29334687 BTC (at 232.39 USD)
[2015-08-22 23:24:00] Emailing the strategy owner: "BUY OR CRY"

slave btce
[2015-08-23 00:39:00] BUY: 0.28142597 BTC (at 225.699 USD)
[2015-08-23 00:39:00] Emailing the strategy owner: "BUY OR CRY"



"crypto long" is the default condition. If HB cannot come up with a good reason anywhere in its hundreds of lines of logic to short BTC it returns to holding.

 

[muh_roads]

Another popular analyst you seem to be following, 4xForecaster, is bearish and he has a good track record of making the right calls. His most recent idea suggests the market could panic all the way to $58. Then it's buy time, for real this time.

I'm not sure what to make of 4x honestly. I think he is better with FX. When it comes to bitcoin he throws out so many targets so it looks like he is never wrong. While the Greece pump was going on I specifically remember him constantly tweeting "Target Hit, 261, bears in control", "Target Hit, 261, bears in control". Yet it kept rising and when it did he switched from his bitstamp to his bitfinex chart as if to claim all his upward targets were all hit.

That non-stop tweeting about his 261 target was really annoying to watch as things kept rising. I think you yourself didn't get in until 299 or something around there? Then you exited 310 and only mentioned the exit after it dumped.

I used to be a believer in the sub-100 as a quick flash. I dunno what to think now. Predictions are scattered to the four winds at these levels from all over. I agree with amon in the sense that these uber low forecasts will take a lot of volume to drill through.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm not sure what to make of 4x honestly. I think he is better with FX. When it comes to bitcoin he throws out so many targets so it looks like he is never wrong. While the Greece pump was going on I specifically remember him constantly tweeting "Target Hit, 261, bears in control", "Target Hit, 261, bears in control". Yet it kept rising and when it did he switched from his bitstamp to his bitfinex chart as if to claim all his upward targets were all hit.

That non-stop tweeting about his 261 target was really annoying to watch as things kept rising. I think you yourself didn't get in until 299 or something around there? Then you exited 310 and only mentioned the exit after it dumped.

I used to be a believer in the sub-100 as a quick flash. I dunno what to think now. Predictions are scattered to the four winds at these levels from all over. I agree with amon in the sense that these uber low forecasts will take a lot of volume to drill through.

I'm sorry to hear that. As far as I can tell, your complaint against 4xForecaster seems to be that he's not precise enough in his predictions, even though they tend to get the general direction right. Sorry, but from what I can tell, he seems to be one of the best on the market. I don't trade often enough for his imprecision to be a problem anyway. Also, keep in mind that a target being hit doesn't mean he's expecting the market to reverse at that point.

You also threw in a quick jab at me for not telling you about my exit. Sorry, but I don't get paid for this, so there's really no incentive for me to give regular updates. I do this for myself now and come here when I feel like it.