The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[dannno]

Great. Another fan.

You are Presence??

 

[PaulConventionWV]

You are Presence??

muh-roads was replying to me, not Presence.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Here's the chart. I'm honestly not sure now, though. I may be assuming too much. Oh, well, here it is anyway:

By the way, I post all of my charts on my Twitter account if you use Twitter. The link is in my sig.

 

[presence]

35 Day SMA on ltcbtc has now crossed positive as well. Every 1 day SMA from SMA15day to SMA35day now has positive, accelerating slope:

 

[presence]

USD/CNH
LTC/CNH
BTC/CNH

all crashed hard yesterday at BTCe exchange... and they're still down.

You could buy $250k worth of USD LTC and BTC right now at 25% discount if you could get CNH onto BTCe exchange.

USDCNH currently trading at 3.8 (it only cost 3.8 CNH for a dollar at btce)

External market value is 6.25 (it cost 6.25 CNH for a dollar anywhere else in the world)


messages I posted in chinese trollbox three days ago are still there; the chinese market is dead at btce

 

[presence]

[video=youtube;K8kua5B5K3I]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K8kua5B5K3I[/video]

 

[presence]

http://cointelegraph.com/news/113440/forget-price-heres-how-bitcoin-really-performed-in-2014

 

[presence]

 

[Dianne]

Is that a sign ltc/btc will break out soon?

 

[PaulConventionWV]

We'll find out in the next few days, but I'm sad to say that bitcoin is looking pretty bearish for now:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/GrWYXbgz/

 

[presence]

ltcbtc SMA36day has now joined SMA25day through SMA35day in pointing to the moon:

Here's the code I'm using btw:

# litepresence
# Slope of Simple Moving Averges

TIMEPERIODS = [25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37]
SLOPE_OFFSET = -2
PRICE_OFFSET = 1.5
PAIR = info.primary_pair
INTERVAL = 86400 # 86400 = 1 day


def initialize():

    storage.z = storage.get('z', 0)


def ma1d(timeperiod):

    z = 1
    interval = INTERVAL
    if INTERVAL == 86400:
        interval = 43200
        z = 2
    sma = data(interval=interval)[PAIR].ma(timeperiod*z)
    return sma

    
def sma_slope(current, previous):
    
    slope_list = []
    z = 0
    while z < len(current):
        slope = 'slope'+str(z)  
        storage[slope] = current[z] - previous[z]
        slope_list.append(storage[slope])
        z+=1
    return slope_list

    
def moving_averages(period):
    
    ma_list = []
    for i in period:
        ma = 'ma'+str(i)
        storage[ma] = ma1d(i)
        ma_list.append(storage[ma])
    return ma_list    

    
def tick():
    
    z =    moving_averages(TIMEPERIODS)
    if info.tick == 0: 
        storage.z = z
    slope = sma_slope(z, storage.z)    
    if info.tick > 75:
        plot('zero', 0, secondary = True)        
        length = len(z)    
        while length > 0:
            plot('SMA'+str(TIMEPERIODS[length-1]), z[length-1])
            plot('slope'+str(TIMEPERIODS[length-1]), slope[length-1], 
              secondary=True)
            length-=1
    if info.tick == 75:
        slope_offset = max(abs(max(slope)), abs(min(slope)))
        price_offset = max(abs(max(z)), abs(min(z)))
        slope_offset = Decimal(SLOPE_OFFSET)*slope_offset
        price_offset = Decimal(PRICE_OFFSET)*price_offset
        plot('z', price_offset)
        plot('slope', slope_offset, secondary=True)
    storage.z = z   
    
    plot('high', data[PAIR].high)
    plot('low', data[PAIR].low)

You can run that on tradewave.net



SMA37 should cross over within a few hours.

 

[Dianne]

We'll find out in the next few days, but I'm sad to say that bitcoin is looking pretty bearish for now:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/GrWYXbgz/

Well we have a couple of peeps pointing to sub $200. on this board. Maybe they are correct.

 

[amonasro]

I'm actually bullish. Market can't sell off below $210, order books stacking up underneath the price @ Finex nicely.

 

[presence]

I'm actually bullish. Market can't sell off below $210, order books stacking up underneath the price @ Finex nicely.

here's SMA20day through SMA30day slope analysis for BTCUSD

The signal is certainly there, but more muddled than the LTCBTC.

When SMA20slope (BLUE) breaks AGAIN from the pack up or down that would be a solid market indication.


Here's LTCUSD showing the second tier bullish breakout on SMA20:

 

[presence]

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm actually bullish. Market can't sell off below $210, order books stacking up underneath the price @ Finex nicely.

When the market keeps bumping support like that, it usually means it's about to break through. As pres said, it kind of looks like a double bottom, but it would be an ugly one since the 2nd bottom is lower than the 1st one. That is unusual for double bottoms. We keep making lower highs and if we cross $220 again, that will further validate my idea. For a double bottom to confirm, it would have to break above $240 at least, but I don't see that happening.

Not sure how I feel about this. Part of me says, for the sake of bitcoin, I hope you're right. The other part says cheap coinz!

 

[presence]

it would be an ugly one since the 2nd bottom is lower than the 1st one. That is unusual for double bottoms

What's Obvious Is Not Often Right
Most traders are inclined to place a stop right at the bottom of a double bottom or top of the double top. The conventional wisdom says that once the pattern is broken, the trader should get out. But conventional wisdom is often wrong.
Leaving the trade early may seem prudent and logical, but markets are rarely that straightforward. Many retail traders play double tops/bottoms, and, knowing this, dealers and institutional traders love to exploit the retail traders' behavior

​

of exiting early, forcing the weak hands out of the trade before price changes direction. The net effect is a series of frustrating stops out of positions that often would have turned out to be successful trades.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/032805.asp

see adam and eve table here:

http://thepatternsite.com/dbsetup.html

​

 

[amonasro]

I'll add to your bullish sentiment, Pres. I've been trading Wyckoff accumulation/distribution setups with great results. Here's an example. Notice how the stock bottoms out on relatively low volume as supply dries up. Each shakeout is on lighter volume as strong hands accumulate. Eventually the strong hands hold all of the cards and there's nowhere to go but up. The markup phase begins with a SOS (sign of strength) and a rally results that pushes out of the trading range.

More info here: http://www.informedtrades.com/attac...sal-step-step-forte-anatomy-trading-range-pdf

 

[PaulConventionWV]

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/032805.asp

see adam and eve table here:

http://thepatternsite.com/dbsetup.html

​

That's very true of Wall Street, but not necessarily for bitcoin since there are a lot less institutional influences from high-frequency computer algorithms and things like that. That's why many people say it's actually easier to trade bitcoin than it is for other arguments where there are many more sophisticated traders and trading techniques involved.

 

[muh_roads]

Looks like a triple bottom is about to happen. Broke thru 220 again. I'm 50-50 right now.

That's very true of Wall Street, but not necessarily for bitcoin since there are a lot less institutional influences from high-frequency computer algorithms and things like that. That's why many people say it's actually easier to trade bitcoin than it is for other arguments where there are many more sophisticated traders and trading techniques involved.

Lets enjoy it while we can. ETF's instruments are coming soon which could cause things to stabilize for more boredom.