The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[muh_roads]

With BTC dropping again lets see if that pushes LTC/BTC back up. Interesting inverse relationship, sometimes.

edit: BTW, congrats on hitting page 100.

 

[newbitech]

But then your H&S is upside down...

An inverse H&S is bullish, not a regular H&S.

Yes, that's an interesting take on it. I think we're in at least a local bull right now, so I'm back in.

So a head and shoulders can be a continuation, but I admit it can be debated on whether or not it's "classical". Perhaps non-traditional, but the shape and the results would not be unprecedented, and certainly the H&S continuation is accepted and taught in chart school.

Without getting into a debate on the descriptive words used to describe that patterns, I was looking for an obvious pattern at the bottom that would make sense on the chart I was looking at back in Nov. My take on a head and shoulders is that it is a reliable pattern that can appear anywhere on a chart. I believe in this case that pattern is going to appear more as an instigator of the blow off low I am hoping for marking the end of the cyclical bear. So while what I am looking at might not be traditional reversal (since you'd rightly expect to see an inverse H&S based on popular descriptions of the pattern) it would come at a point in the chart where reversal is expected.

So hopefully if the pattern does eventually emerge and play out, the confirmation of the H&S as a continuation will also be the blow off low that markets the foundation for the start of a new cyclical bull rally and the counter trend breaks out of the wedge.



Continuation Head and Shoulders (Regular head and shoulders at the bottom of a downtrend, reverse head and shoulders at the top of an uptrend) http://peterlbrandt.com/do-continuation-head-and-shoulders-patterns-really-exist/

examples

S&P 500 Breaks Out of a Head & Shoulders Continuation Pattern (Feb. 2014)


http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20120402A.html

 

[PaulConventionWV]

So a head and shoulders can be a continuation, but I admit it can be debated on whether or not it's "classical". Perhaps non-traditional, but the shape and the results would not be unprecedented, and certainly the H&S continuation is accepted and taught in chart school.

Without getting into a debate on the descriptive words used to describe that patterns, I was looking for an obvious pattern at the bottom that would make sense on the chart I was looking at back in Nov. My take on a head and shoulders is that it is a reliable pattern that can appear anywhere on a chart. I believe in this case that pattern is going to appear more as an instigator of the blow off low I am hoping for marking the end of the cyclical bear. So while what I am looking at might not be traditional reversal (since you'd rightly expect to see an inverse H&S based on popular descriptions of the pattern) it would come at a point in the chart where reversal is expected.

So hopefully if the pattern does eventually emerge and play out, the confirmation of the H&S as a continuation will also be the blow off low that markets the foundation for the start of a new cyclical bull rally and the counter trend breaks out of the wedge.



Continuation Head and Shoulders (Regular head and shoulders at the bottom of a downtrend, reverse head and shoulders at the top of an uptrend) http://peterlbrandt.com/do-continuation-head-and-shoulders-patterns-really-exist/

examples

S&P 500 Breaks Out of a Head & Shoulders Continuation Pattern (Feb. 2014)


http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20120402A.html

Fine. I don't normally use H&S as a continuation, but I'll admit they probably do exist. However, I was just a little confused because you had said it would be a reversal, and using a traditional reversal pattern as a continuation pattern to mark the beginning of a reversal is... unusual, and a bit confusing.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

With BTC dropping again lets see if that pushes LTC/BTC back up. Interesting inverse relationship, sometimes.

edit: BTW, congrats on hitting page 100.

You must be using the 30 posts per page setting, because I use 40 and it says we're still on page 75 for me.

 

[presence]

 

[muh_roads]

You must be using the 30 posts per page setting, because I use 40 and it says we're still on page 75 for me.

Yeah, just the default, whatever that is.

You still in BTC? Nice pump today that you got to ride up.

I have a confused look on my face when I see this. What is the positive take away from this? You draw the thick orange?

Also, do you think now is the time to get back into BTC? I see you haven't posted any honey badger recently.

 

[presence]

I have a confused look on my face when I see this. What is the positive take away from this? You draw the thick orange?

Also, do you think now is the time to get back into BTC? I see you haven't posted any honey badger recently.

The thick orange is SMA30 1 day candles. That's the one I've been waiting for. It has for the most part been below the thick white line since Feb 2014.

LTC is breaking away from BTC

Yes I think this is a bullish sign for both.

Could btc go lower? sure maybe to 200. But I could also see consolidation here over next 36 hours to 232 btce price; high margin 239 low margin 226. Then another break bull could well be in our future come the 4th.

Honeybadger is still in fiat.

This next trade is likely "Honey" and as I've said its a transition from "red dragon long" to "cat bounce" long... so its kind of a lagging trade.

The last "honey" on the chart bought back in at effectively the price it sold for. In this case that would mean the mid to high 240's would be when Honey Badger will be convinced the chart is bullish again.

Personally I'm already convinced. BTC = Bulls on parade. LTC = epichulkdonghellamoon.

 

[muh_roads]

The thick orange is SMA30 1 day candles. That's the one I've been waiting for. It has for the most part been below the thick white line since Feb 2014.

LTC is breaking away from BTC

Yes I think this is a bullish sign for both.

Could btc go lower? sure maybe to 200. But I could also see consolidation here over next 36 hours to 232 btce price; high margin 239 low margin 226. Then another break bull could well be in our future come the 4th.

Honeybadger is still in fiat.

This next trade is likely "Honey" and as I've said its a transition from "red dragon long" to "cat bounce" long... so its kind of a lagging trade.

The last "honey" on the chart bought back in at effectively the price it sold for. In this case that would mean the mid to high 240's would be when Honey Badger will be convinced the chart is bullish again.

Personally I'm already convinced. BTC = Bulls on parade. LTC = epichulkdonghellamoon.

If it mimics the previous, then it only goes up a little bit.

What are your thoughts on Alcindor? He sees the LTC price doubling soon (in USD) but then hitting resistance. Whenever wave 4 completes is when wave 5 up begins.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/maqV4kQJ/

BTC would need to double in price in USD terms, otherwise LTC/BTC will begin to fall. But I suppose you can count on BTC pouring into LTC also. I'm looking at too many charts.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Yeah, just the default, whatever that is.

You still in BTC? Nice pump today that you got to ride up.



I have a confused look on my face when I see this. What is the positive take away from this? You draw the thick orange?

Also, do you think now is the time to get back into BTC? I see you haven't posted any honey badger recently.

Yup. I'll be holding for a while longer. We may see a climb into the $400s or somewhere in the $300s and we may crash down again, but there has to be a reversal at some point. No trend lasts forever, and the one we've been under for well over a year now is getting very old and its time is expiring.

As for now, I'm watching carefully for another run-up like we saw recently on high volume which marks a point at which the market has stretched itself beyond its means and there are no more buyers or sellers left. That's how you can tell just by volume when is the best time to buy/sell, and you can make a lot of money if you don't worry about anything else and just look for those points at which a lot of volume pushes the price one way very fast.

You'll notice we haven't had a lot of volume yet even though the price has been going up, and that tells me the price is still well within a reasonable range and hasn't overstretched itself yet, so the trend is still intact. If we were going to have a bubble, I would expect to see a helluva lot of volume. coming in as we started taking off.

 

[presence]

[h=3]Dread Pirate Roberts "Hell's Angels Assassination Transcript"[/h]

 

[presence]

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm not convinced. Fractals aren't very reliable. This could've easily been a pump.

 

[amonasro]

Yup. I'll be holding for a while longer. We may see a climb into the $400s or somewhere in the $300s and we may crash down again, but there has to be a reversal at some point. No trend lasts forever, and the one we've been under for well over a year now is getting very old and its time is expiring.

As for now, I'm watching carefully for another run-up like we saw recently on high volume which marks a point at which the market has stretched itself beyond its means and there are no more buyers or sellers left. That's how you can tell just by volume when is the best time to buy/sell, and you can make a lot of money if you don't worry about anything else and just look for those points at which a lot of volume pushes the price one way very fast.

You'll notice we haven't had a lot of volume yet even though the price has been going up, and that tells me the price is still well within a reasonable range and hasn't overstretched itself yet, so the trend is still intact. If we were going to have a bubble, I would expect to see a helluva lot of volume. coming in as we started taking off.

I'm in agreement, we're seeing a slow bleed of available supply at these levels. And that's just what the whales want, if they're bullish, so holders don't dump into a rally making them more cost effective.

What I was surprised about was the decisive drop below $300. It just goes to show that the market makers will use any bit of information to profit and after Gox, it was kind of a no-brainer to shake the market out even further and cause a big panic. Barring a similarly terrible piece of news, I can't see sellers pushing this market down very much further.

Reminds me of a good quote by Tom Williams, a professional London syndicate trader for years...

What starts a bull market?

To start the process, an Index [or the stocks it represents] start to fall in price day after day, week after week, punctuated with small up moves with lower tops and lower bottoms as seen in a bear market. There will be a low level reached at some time where weak holders will start to panic (The Herd) and will tend to sell their stock holdings at the same time. This is because they are all being effected by the same psychological pressures and fear even lower prices. These weak holders cannot stand any more losses, and are fearful of even further losses. Fear is intensified as the markets fall because one thing is certain, the news will be bad. As these traders sell, professional money will step in and start buying, because in their view this stock can now be sold at a higher price at a later date. The panicky selling has also given professional money the opportunity to buy very large amounts of stock without putting the price up against their own buying [accumulation]. There is nothing unusual about this, it is the natural instinct of people who all like to buy something on the cheap, that is if they have the money available and can recognise it is bargain day.

This process is going on all the time, creating either a small move or a large move. Any move that does start is in direct proportion to the amount of shares that have changed hands.

To create a major bull market you need to see the extremes of this process at work.This is known as a Selling Climax and will mark the low point of the market, while the opposite is a Buying Climax and will mark the high point of a market. The Selling Climax phenomenon occurs when there has been a major transfer of stock from weak holders, that is -traders, who have been locked-in at higher prices suffering the fear and pressure of losses which cannot be tolerated any longer, decide to sell. However, somebody has to be prepared to buy at these times. It is professional money who are the buyers. This gives professional traders, or those traders who are on the right side of the market, whose money is not locked in at higher prices and who are therefore not under pressure from the bear market, the opportunity to buy and to also cover short positions without putting the price up against their own buying. This process is seen on our chart as a wide spread down into fresh low territory, on very high volume, while the market closes in the middle or high. The news will be very bad coming from all quarters which may prevent you from seeing this as a low point in the market. The news has to be bad to shake everybody out!

You cannot go straight into a bull market from a bear market unless there has been a substantial transfer of stock from weak holders to strong holders. You need to see this transfer in the underlying stocks that make up the Index. If this transfer is not clear you will know well in advance that any up move is liable to fail. In any up move that is liable to fail you will see either a no demand up day/bar [low volume] or excessively high volume up day/bar with no results, that is prices come off the next day, or an up-thrust appears. You do not see this type of action in a true bull market [see up-thrusts].

What is good about a bear market is that you know a major bull move will develop from it, once the transfer of stock has taken place. A good trader will buy all successful tests in the subsequent bull market which can last many years [see testing]. At the time offirst writing [1993] you may like to pay particular attention to the Nikkei. This will show a selling climax at some time in the future.

Once a bear market has been falling for some time, a point will be reached where those traders that have been locked in at higher prices and who have held on hoping for a recovery start to panic and are shaken out of the market [crowd psychology]. Alarm is always triggered by 'bad news' after these traders have already seen substantial paper losses. As the panic sets in, these now fearful holders start to sell, giving theprofessionals a chance to buy large amounts of stock without putting the price upagainst their own buying. This is usually just the start of accumulation in many of the individual stocks, but will mark the lows of the Index. After a major transfer [selling climax] expect a major bull market to follow.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm in agreement, we're seeing a slow bleed of available supply at these levels. And that's just what the whales want, if they're bullish, so holders don't dump into a rally making them more cost effective.

What I was surprised about was the decisive drop below $300. It just goes to show that the market makers will use any bit of information to profit and after Gox, it was kind of a no-brainer to shake the market out even further and cause a big panic. Barring a similarly terrible piece of news, I can't see sellers pushing this market down very much further.

Reminds me of a good quote by Tom Williams, a professional London syndicate trader for years...

Good article.

By the way, I sold at $238. Looking at $220 for a possible short.

 

[muh_roads]

Good article.

By the way, I sold at $238. Looking at $220 for a possible short.

argh, I started supporting...lol

Looking at 220 for re-entry? You already shorted at 238...confused.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

argh, I started supporting...lol

Looking at 220 for re-entry? You already shorted at 238...confused.

No... If $220 breaks, that's when start looking for a shorting opportunity.

 

[presence]

[h=3]Introducing Darkleaks: A Blackmarket for Whistleblowers[/h]

 

[muh_roads]

No... If $220 breaks, that's when start looking for a shorting opportunity.

Ah, yeah I still stick with the old-school meaning of shorting as selling. I have yet to try finex and making those kinds of bets.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Ah, yeah I still stick with the old-school meaning of shorting as selling. I have yet to try finex and making those kinds of bets.

Yeah, that's essentially what it is.

 

[muh_roads]

Getting close to $220. I supported a little higher than what it is now, but only 50%. So I guess get ready to bail soon and eat the loss? Part of me just wants to keep that portion in and sleep on it. Whale Facebook Adam and his whale fuckery (I think he is full of it) is making the price a very 50-50 situation right now.

I think I'm going to set buy orders on the way down to 170...maybe 160. Start at 210?

And look at that, LTC/BTC rising as BTC/USD drops. It almost never fails...