The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[amonasro]

I just hate to cash out at such a loss. Do you think LTC will rebound back to at least the $7.00 range?

Yes, but you might have to wait awhile. LTC enjoys moving parallel to BTC, but it has overall more general downward pressure when the market goes sideways.

 

[muh_roads]

I just hate to cash out at such a loss. Do you think LTC will rebound back to at least the $7.00 range?

Whales like to play popular coins. They will move LTC again some day. The despair shakeout for cheap coins is the game they play.

 

[zeMan]

You can send me a private msg through ronpaulforums or email at [email protected]

"Honey Badger" is my current work in progress.

It trades BTCUSD, LTCUSD, and LTCBTC all in one script; I keep telling myself only another 2 weeks... I'm not done with it is all I can say, dev time is hard to estimate.

Hey Pres, how's Honey Badger coming? By the way, you should add DRK/BTC, DRK/USD in there and run it on Bitfinex

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Who's still here?

Muh-roads, where do you get out? Is there a point at which you stop buying and start selling? Is there any point at which you lose faith in the mythical whales?

Where does it end?

 

[evilfunnystuff]

Who's still here?

Muh-roads, where do you get out? Is there a point at which you stop buying and start selling? Is there any point at which you lose faith in the mythical whales?

Where does it end?

I am just starting to scoop.

I don't really understand TA or projections, nor have I ever trusted any of the publicly available ones.

I just buy when I feel the time is right, and now seems like a good time to buy to me, and I will continue incremental buying if the price drops any more.

 

[newbitech]

I'm still feeling the long term trend line I projected in this post.

Even tho we had some harder paddle ball whacks than I thought, I think this analysis is still valid.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...hnical-chart-analysis-anyone&highlight=octave

 

[zeMan]

It seems to me like we may have hit bottom - http://imgur.com/QDSwKUM

Unless of course it keeps dumping, in which case, nevermind.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm still feeling the long term trend line I projected in this post.

Even tho we had some harder paddle ball whacks than I thought, I think this analysis is still valid.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...hnical-chart-analysis-anyone&highlight=octave

I know you've spoken negatively about the technology in the past, but you seem to be saying that there will be a healthy new uptrend once it reaches your target area. Is that correct, or do you think this is the beginning of the end?

 

[PaulConventionWV]

It seems to me like we may have hit bottom - http://imgur.com/QDSwKUM

Unless of course it keeps dumping, in which case, nevermind.

That's not likely to serve as a meaningful bottom. We would need to see a convincing reversal with good volume and real demand. No, I don't think we're there yet. This is just like the 5 or 6 other "bottoms" we've had on the way down here.

 

[newbitech]

I know you've spoken negatively about the technology in the past, but you seem to be saying that there will be a healthy new uptrend once it reaches your target area. Is that correct, or do you think this is the beginning of the end?

Yes, I have had some negative things to say about the implementation of the technology. To be fair, I've always held that the technology is revolutionary. I'm just afraid that the implementation hasn't been as solid as the underlying tech. There are some core issues with using the technology the way it has been used. I won't go into a lot of details to answer your question at this point, but I think it is fair to say that the technology is here to stay, just maybe not in the current mode. It's a good foundation to build off of and I am sure as time goes on and the large capital investors learn more about how the tech is being used and can be used, will see innovations that will add much more value and the exchanges will stabilize around that more realistic valuation.

As far my target area, I tried to go back and extend my stable growth line for the long term. I am still focused on the pivot at $250, as I believe many people are. If you go back and look at the largest weekly volume candles in the bitstamp chart on trading view you will note a couple of things.

1.) Shortly after my 'octave' analysis that we are talking about, the market signaled that the pivot was actually at $320. This was the week of 11/4 settlement price. The week ended the same day after my analysis. It is important to note that this week was the largest volume positive movement in the history of this trade.
2.) That week began at 207 reached as high as 364 and finally settled at 320. On the daily view for the same week, there is a high volume touch point to the down side on 11/10, the day of my analysis which I believe coincided with new about senate hearings coupled with the fall out from silk road bust. THat touch point was 264, which at the time showed strong support for the peak of the april 2013 exuberance.
3.) The idea of the octave was to eventually challenge and retest the pivot point in this range. A healthy strong volume bounce of that retest would indicate that the steady growth trend would reach up to a new level or octave of pricing with the new trend line RANGE setting up the low end of the range at the TOP of the high end of the old range.


So what has actually played out is that the retest never happened. What we are seeing today is not a retest of top end of the old growth trend. Instead it is a return to the old lower octave growth trend.

This is actually really extremely positive news for the long term growth prospects of the technology in so far as fair market valuations and in terms of technical analysis. So in fact, with todays retest of that pivot point which by now has extended the old stead growth channel, what we are seeing (finally) is some pricing stability.

No, this is not the beginning of the end. But it is the end of the beginning, if that makes sense. We are seeing some soberness return to this trade and to this tech. This is a positive sign for long term investors and for actual users of this technology. Not just in terms of technicals, but also, it is fundamentally important for this technology to be made widely available to the average consumer. Even tho I think we all have different perspectives of what the value of "bitcoin" might be, and we even have different ways of understanding what a "bitcoin" might actually be, the average not technical person will see "cheap" bitcoins as an opportunity to explore and adopt the technology. This is a good thing!

So that being said, I think finally we'll start to move out of the speculative phase of the introduction of an invention and revolution in communications technology. I think we'll be moving back into a more realistic approach of figuring out what the technology can actually do and maybe start seeing investors and early adopters focus more on software and less on the exchange charts.

I suspect that the market will over correct even tho many will be licking their chops to scoop up at whatever the low actually ends up being. No one wants to get burned again, but looking at my long terms growth trend, the bottom end of that trend is right around the 260 level and the range would be up into the 320 area as of today. That's on the weekly analysis.

I'd be looking for an over correct to somewhere around the 120-150 range because I expect the old 250 pivot to be broken still based on volume support at that level and then one final capitulation to drive prices down to the last stable trend range post april 2013 highs.

Today, this would be support on the weekly chart secondary indicators. This down move has been gathering momentum for months now. The weekly is just now starting to move into oversold range after nearly 20 months of bouncing in and out of overbought. I believe we'll spend a week or two of weekly oversold enough to bring the MONTHLY chart on trading view secondary RSI indicator down to touch the oversold level. That projects prices out to 120-150 on a LONG over due technical correction.

That being said, I started small buys last week as we punched down into the upper octave growth lows of 320 where intermediate support was at. I've also scooped up some of the pivot prices just now as we begin challenging the growth octave pivots. I'll be adding my position all the way down to my target over correct range of 120-150.

The trend reversal won't happen quickly, so there won't be a "catch a falling knife moment". I believe this will be a protracted correction and very frustrating for people who have been long during this entire corrective phase.

However, there will be plenty of opportunity for bulls to retrench because eventually, there won't be enough floor space to short. We'll get back to a day trader market real soon here, but the whipsaw action won't be as severe as we saw with the last 2 bubble phases.

I suppose the big question is, where is the top to this thing? Will there be another bubble up phase? I think the sky is definitely the limit assuming innovation keeps pace with valuations. That hasn't been the case because I do believe the market got WAY ahead of itself with a BETA test technology. So no, there won't be another bubble up phase like the last 2 we saw. Those I believe are aberrations in an otherwise healthy market with solid "product". That being said, I don't think there is anything stopping the trade from moving into a more profitable growth trend ( a steeper up slope) than what the technical analysis has presented to this point.

So there ya have it.

We've already hit my initial target and I've covered my shorts and started slowly adding to my holdings. I'll back up the truck on the over correct sub 200, and then use my new long position to start day trade again.

It's been a long time coming, but I've yet to actually lose money trading and at this point I've nearly quadrupled my fiat losses from the theft of my original trades.

 

[newbitech]

and now I note, 31,000 bitcoins at $300. (bitstamp) THAT is why this thing will over correct, and severely so.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Yes, I have had some negative things to say about the implementation of the technology. To be fair, I've always held that the technology is revolutionary. I'm just afraid that the implementation hasn't been as solid as the underlying tech. There are some core issues with using the technology the way it has been used. I won't go into a lot of details to answer your question at this point, but I think it is fair to say that the technology is here to stay, just maybe not in the current mode. It's a good foundation to build off of and I am sure as time goes on and the large capital investors learn more about how the tech is being used and can be used, will see innovations that will add much more value and the exchanges will stabilize around that more realistic valuation.

As far my target area, I tried to go back and extend my stable growth line for the long term. I am still focused on the pivot at $250, as I believe many people are. If you go back and look at the largest weekly volume candles in the bitstamp chart on trading view you will note a couple of things.

1.) Shortly after my 'octave' analysis that we are talking about, the market signaled that the pivot was actually at $320. This was the week of 11/4 settlement price. The week ended the same day after my analysis. It is important to note that this week was the largest volume positive movement in the history of this trade.
2.) That week began at 207 reached as high as 364 and finally settled at 320. On the daily view for the same week, there is a high volume touch point to the down side on 11/10, the day of my analysis which I believe coincided with new about senate hearings coupled with the fall out from silk road bust. THat touch point was 264, which at the time showed strong support for the peak of the april 2013 exuberance.
3.) The idea of the octave was to eventually challenge and retest the pivot point in this range. A healthy strong volume bounce of that retest would indicate that the steady growth trend would reach up to a new level or octave of pricing with the new trend line RANGE setting up the low end of the range at the TOP of the high end of the old range.


So what has actually played out is that the retest never happened. What we are seeing today is not a retest of top end of the old growth trend. Instead it is a return to the old lower octave growth trend.

This is actually really extremely positive news for the long term growth prospects of the technology in so far as fair market valuations and in terms of technical analysis. So in fact, with todays retest of that pivot point which by now has extended the old stead growth channel, what we are seeing (finally) is some pricing stability.

No, this is not the beginning of the end. But it is the end of the beginning, if that makes sense. We are seeing some soberness return to this trade and to this tech. This is a positive sign for long term investors and for actual users of this technology. Not just in terms of technicals, but also, it is fundamentally important for this technology to be made widely available to the average consumer. Even tho I think we all have different perspectives of what the value of "bitcoin" might be, and we even have different ways of understanding what a "bitcoin" might actually be, the average not technical person will see "cheap" bitcoins as an opportunity to explore and adopt the technology. This is a good thing!

So that being said, I think finally we'll start to move out of the speculative phase of the introduction of an invention and revolution in communications technology. I think we'll be moving back into a more realistic approach of figuring out what the technology can actually do and maybe start seeing investors and early adopters focus more on software and less on the exchange charts.

I suspect that the market will over correct even tho many will be licking their chops to scoop up at whatever the low actually ends up being. No one wants to get burned again, but looking at my long terms growth trend, the bottom end of that trend is right around the 260 level and the range would be up into the 320 area as of today. That's on the weekly analysis.

I'd be looking for an over correct to somewhere around the 120-150 range because I expect the old 250 pivot to be broken still based on volume support at that level and then one final capitulation to drive prices down to the last stable trend range post april 2013 highs.

Today, this would be support on the weekly chart secondary indicators. This down move has been gathering momentum for months now. The weekly is just now starting to move into oversold range after nearly 20 months of bouncing in and out of overbought. I believe we'll spend a week or two of weekly oversold enough to bring the MONTHLY chart on trading view secondary RSI indicator down to touch the oversold level. That projects prices out to 120-150 on a LONG over due technical correction.

That being said, I started small buys last week as we punched down into the upper octave growth lows of 320 where intermediate support was at. I've also scooped up some of the pivot prices just now as we begin challenging the growth octave pivots. I'll be adding my position all the way down to my target over correct range of 120-150.

The trend reversal won't happen quickly, so there won't be a "catch a falling knife moment". I believe this will be a protracted correction and very frustrating for people who have been long during this entire corrective phase.

However, there will be plenty of opportunity for bulls to retrench because eventually, there won't be enough floor space to short. We'll get back to a day trader market real soon here, but the whipsaw action won't be as severe as we saw with the last 2 bubble phases.

I suppose the big question is, where is the top to this thing? Will there be another bubble up phase? I think the sky is definitely the limit assuming innovation keeps pace with valuations. That hasn't been the case because I do believe the market got WAY ahead of itself with a BETA test technology. So no, there won't be another bubble up phase like the last 2 we saw. Those I believe are aberrations in an otherwise healthy market with solid "product". That being said, I don't think there is anything stopping the trade from moving into a more profitable growth trend ( a steeper up slope) than what the technical analysis has presented to this point.

So there ya have it.

We've already hit my initial target and I've covered my shorts and started slowly adding to my holdings. I'll back up the truck on the over correct sub 200, and then use my new long position to start day trade again.

It's been a long time coming, but I've yet to actually lose money trading and at this point I've nearly quadrupled my fiat losses from the theft of my original trades.

I'm actually really glad to hear that. Well done, sir!

I'll admit I'm no good at trading. I find that I can usually spot trends pretty well, but I just don't have the nerve for it. Your analysis helps and after initially having no exposure to the way markets work, I can see why it was extremely overpriced all of last year, so I agree with your targets and your general analysis. Thanks for the insight.

 

[muh_roads]

To be fair to Bitcoin, everything is eating shit right now...stocks...metals, etc. We're going thru another manipulated USD rally. Fun times.

Everyone's TA says we are about to bounce to somewhere between $400-550. Back to $600 by the end of 2014 is very possible. It doesn't look like our next paradigm shift is happening this year though. And for the record, I left my "group" for the most part. The contacts made have been valuable though. Still getting decent shitcoin tips periodically that I will keep posting.

Also you are not alone. There are a lot of whales who are also upset right now. There are some mega bear whales right now being giant dicks. And they seem to mostly be coming from China according to what a lot of ppl are saying.

Now for the depressing part. If you follow the logarithmic chart and dial it back to 2010. You see a pattern. And the pattern shows a possible slow decline to $50-$150 until 2016-2017 if the period between the 2011 high, 2011 low, and 2012 doldrums is emulated. We'll find out I guess.

Now to smoke the hopium...for the logarithmic pattern to repeat itself in an upward fashion, then it shoots to $4K...and then to $40k...lol Which sounds ridiculous, but those VC articles I keep reading still give me hope. Tim Draper says $10K in 3 years. Winklevoss said $40k (timeframe unknown). If that actually happens, Bitcoin is all you will be hearing about for most of 2016-2017 since it would probably be many months of rises and ppl trying to catch the train. It wouldn't flash overnight upwards. The focus is still on emerging market infrastructure.

The name of the game has always been to accumulate more BTC. Play the swings as best you can.

Dianne,

Keep an eye on LTC. I think you might get a chance to cash out your $7 buy soon. Set your spread orders. I'm just going to be watching. Good luck.

newbitech & anyone technical,

BTC might be about to get its first major mining algo modification. When it was described to me it didn't make any sense. It's not PoS or a change from SHA-256. But if I find an article about it I'll post it. Would love to hear everyones input.

 

[muh_roads]

Also guys, PM me your e-mails. I'm starting a "newsletter" soon. I feel bad about the price decline since I'm probably the biggest btc cheerleader here. I'd like to share methods I use to legally increase btc count. I will also share ideas I'm going to soon test and try due to new companies that have appeared on the horizon. I think metal traders will also find it interesting.

If you choose to follow what I do you do so on your own accord. But there is no harm in just watching and sharing info with people. I was going to charge 1 btc for lifetime membership for this newsletter on twitter, but RPF members can get in for free for a limited time. Your feedback will also help as I tweak how I want to proceed with this. I really don't know if it will be a newsletter format or just periodic updates.

I'll always mention other ideas and news I keep up on from time to time. It would also be nice to turn it into a community where TA experts give their feedback also. I'd also like to see people with skills meeting other people with skills and projects develop from networking.

 

[zeMan]

and now I note, 31,000 bitcoins at $300. (bitstamp) THAT is why this thing will over correct, and severely so.

That was some giant market manipulation by a HUGE BTC whale. Buying up anything under 300 and gradually munching down his own wall. Up 20$ within 30 minutes of the wall disappearing.

 

[kaleruka]

how to PM?i cant find how send u my email

 

[amonasro]

The 30K wall at $300 was something. I grabbed a bit of it. Turns out it was not necessarily a master manipulator, just an early adopter cashing out to the tune of $9 million. I have a difficult time believing he bought into it himself seeing as Coinbase ran out of coins last night. That hasn't happened in quite awhile. If he stays out of the market, the long downtrend will be broken. And if he stays off the supply side of the supply & demand scale, chances are we won't be returning to sub $300 levels.

Am I crazy to think the price will go up from here?

 

[FSP-Rebel]

It's hard to know what to make of this recent transaction as some are calling it a bull trap. There's just been so many recent positive developments in the community lately and the infrastructure has been constantly being improved that it's hard to think that we won't have good times ahead once again. Also, there's so many more options for people across the world to acquire bitcoin so the next frenzy will be extremely dramatic.

 

[nayjevin]

I am just starting to scoop.

I don't really understand TA or projections, nor have I ever trusted any of the publicly available ones.

I just buy when I feel the time is right, and now seems like a good time to buy to me, and I will continue incremental buying if the price drops any more.

LOL @ smartest guy in thread

 

[zeMan]

Making a prediction: Current rise will go to $434, then down to stabilize at ~$400 for a few weeks. Then, push up to the next level and hold at around 670 for a while.