The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[PaulConventionWV]

Don't get caught in indecision or a bull trap... even if price seems to want to move up... rest assured a 3 or 4% gain is not worth the coming capitulation.

If you zoom in on that yellow dot

we could get a thin wick of bullishness today or tormorrow...

I'm not messing with it. Best profit on expected historical green candles... not speculation on thin wicks


Much bigger gains to be had by being patient; 30 days from now will be a different ball game.


Best move, walk away... come back in a week

From your chart, it looks like we should be in full scale bear mode a week from now. Didn't you say the decline would last about 60 days?

 

[presence]

litepresence, you remind me of the nightly weatherman... You keep all your options open.. Possibility of rain, possibility it might not ... 50/50 chance ... we may see a few snow flurries, but we may not. Tune in tomorrow for the most current forecast... 50/50 chance, we may see rain but may not; we may see snow flurries, but we may not.

I'm a "day trader" in that I play shorts... things move up and down with the passing winds; it takes a keen sense, a sharp shot, and well lubricated sponge. No way you can accurately forecast short movements... you can only "play them". What can be projected is "the stages of a bubble" ; like the stages of a bubble... the "stage after a bubble" and the "stage between bubbles" has a common form

RE: China Bubble

Takeoff Selloff 1st Beartrap... CHECK
media Attention Enthusiasm CHECK
greed delusion new paradigm CHECK
Denial Bull trap Return to Normal CHECK
Fear Capitulation Despair CHECK



Return to the mean CHECK


Bitcoin's "mean", by the way, is about 00.6% daily since it came into being; all the way back to when you could get a pizza for 10,000 bitcoin.



When the "classic bubble" is over... nobody talks much about the next part...



"red dragons red dragons" are my favorite part tho... lemme make you a pic of how the rest of the story goes


brb




Phase 1

"slingshot past the mean"

 

[presence]

The rise and fall yesterday and today... going into tomorrow... we're at "final run of the bulls".


the image may go off the edge of your screen so you might have to right click view image, etc....

I'll stir up a better quality situation when I have a chance

 

[presence]

"right click view image" to see what goes off side of screen

 

[presence]

some other less likely possibilities post bubble:


less likely... because the honey bee "wants" to get back to the hive.

sorry for poor image quality... I'm not sure whats up w/ my image editor right now... /frustrated





Lemme explain some of the image above... so I think we're currently at "final run of the bulls" phase of the bubble...

final run of the bulls should turn into "red dragons" as we head back down from this parallel of the mean we've found through post despair consolidation....

to the mean itself.



OPTION B:


final run of the bulls could ALSO turn instead into a 3rd tier... a 3rd consolidation... and then another "final run of the bulls" though smaller in scale before breaking down into red dragons. The run will be smaller... tighter; less margin, less gain than this last run.



OPTION C:

At any given point... this is a high risk investment vehicle... It could all go to hell.

Various things could manifest this... Large spread attack or vulnerability at an exchange for example... Mass goverment criminalization globally.... etc. etc.

I'd like to think this won't happen... It could also stop short of hell and simply cause a bubble inverse to the mean... And at some point BTC will reach its max and that is exactly what will happen... we'll see a bubble inverse to the mean form.



OPTION D:

At various locations of consolidation or whiplash we could be launched by "new money" into a "double top" or out of this universe



You want to watch the support an resistance linear lines in post 104 for confirmation of any of these alternative routes.

 

[presence]

presence, thoughts on Unobtanium? 250K supply cap. Could it possibly reach BTC parity before collapsing?

100% speculator collect-ability factor...

Its dev is clean. No premine... No reason Mitt Romney wouldn't accept it as a running mate


Keep your eyes on it, I ran it for some gains when it first hit cryptsy in IPO style last week. Took fair returns... could have done better if I was in BEFORE it got to crytsy... I would have 10X on my money in one day.

I rode for 20% gain in the whiplash and gtfo


If Unobtainium hits a major exchange...

PARITY quick and easy.


If...

It may never get past cryptsy.

But definately a coin to hold on the day it breaks to a new exchange.


People^2 = Price^2

 

[presence]

This of course brings up the subject of where can you buy coins BEFORE they hit cryptsy

bitcointalk alt coins forum is the best place to find out about new coins and its worth your time to check in there daily.


I'll post some links to lesser exchanges that pick up pre cryptsy coins here. Often they are traded pre cryptsy however on google spreadsheets through agents which hold both parties money and act like a broker; missing the right word... I'll edit

Unobtainium, had I noticed it would have been an excellent run to get on this past month. There will be more.

 

[lotsOfCake]

Litepresence: awesome graphs as always! Even the hand drawn one.

I wonder what the Winklevoss twins are going to do over the next two months.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

I wonder what the Winklevoss twins are going to do over the next two months.

The BTC Spartan General-Bulls hold for the bigger picture on the flip side as they had the most foresight to understand how top shelf BTC would become early-early on. Short-term corrections are the price of doing business in this game. I may play around w/ a coin or two but I never cash in my satchel for a short-term gain and then start over. I couldn't sleep at night. That said, I'm a small fry in the overall ecosystem.

 

[XTreat]

Presense I am pretty sure you are a genius and I will be following this closely,

question, when you go to fiat, do you cash out to your checking through Coinbase or just sit in dollars on BTC-e?

 

[presence]

 

[lotsOfCake]

made a buy order spread to see if i can catch some of that projected knife. if it doesn't come, then no harm done ;-)

 

[muh_roads]

The BTC Spartan General-Bulls hold for the bigger picture on the flip side as they had the most foresight to understand how top shelf BTC would become early-early on. Short-term corrections are the price of doing business in this game. I may play around w/ a coin or two but I never cash in my satchel for a short-term gain and then start over. I couldn't sleep at night. That said, I'm a small fry in the overall ecosystem.

You'll be a large fry to most people soon enough. And those small fries starting will become large fries to others...and so on. When your competition is the retardation that is the US Dollar, it is pretty easy to win with Bitcoin long-term.

 

[lotsOfCake]

You'll be a large fry to most people soon enough. And those small fries starting will become large fries to others...and so on. When your competition is the retardation that is the US Dollar, it is pretty easy to win with Bitcoin long-term.

I like playing with the idea of "what happens when an entire fiat currency jumps over to crypto" - rampant devaluation at the end ? Might happen in a small african or south american country.

 

[muh_roads]

I like playing with the idea of "what happens when an entire fiat currency jumps over to crypto" - rampant devaluation at the end ? Might happen in a small african or south american country.

You're talking about $1m-5m per BTC by the time it comes to that. Winklevii are talking $40K. There is a point where currency does become worthless no matter what you hold in an area of non-food abundance.

If we're ever that lucky, smart BTC'ers will have already expatriated to the Galt's Gulch Seastead.

Trade agreements and central banks sucked away our livelihoods. I say it is time to suck it back.

http://fiatleak.com/

 

[muh_roads]

That's a hard drop with little volume on the last leg down. What does that mean? BTC-e has an abundance of NMC?

 

[presence]

That's a hard drop with little volume on the last leg down. What does that mean? BTC-e has an abundance of NMC?

well... didn't break down... broke up to 7.7 level; I slept in open orders last night centered @ 6.1... Still holding fiat; oh well... no shame.


I don't chase green candles... so I'll just have to wait for another opportunity.



More on what may have "caused" this break upward in the post below:

 

[presence]

 

[btcltc]

Why do you think by the end of january, coins will be at a 40% loss?
Are you referring to the chinese business regulation?

 

[presence]

The second top on the last tier of huobi has now breached resistance high of 4915.... An eye should be kept on this as... resistance at this level is what holds the 12h chart back from "double top" @ 7500y-8000y... A fairly unlikely possibility... but one of the few instances where "chasing green candles" would be advised.



Watch that huobi chart... and that breach of resistance at the third peak since despair.