The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

nayjevin said:
That's kind of what I looked at, but seeking evidence to validate my 'anything over $325 is a bubble' made any conclusions I might have drawn suspect.
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I think it's important to respect the big change in behavior the price had pushing out of the long term range. Big fractal, big parabolic arc indicating a huge demand increase coming in from somewhere. That, to me, is adoption. The price racing up and becoming temporarily overbought is simply a result of a herd of elephants trying to get through a tiny door, so to speak. While not "healthy" there is simply no other way as we're dealing with a rare commodity and the shortage becomes apparent during every bull run. People take coins off exchange and hold. There were reports of a lot of old coins moving around simply because exchanges had to dig deep into cold storage to meet demand.

How do you normalize the volume across exchanges so that analysis like that has any meaning? Some exchanges have a fraction of the traders they used to, some many more than they used to.
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I look at relative volume and use my best judgment if something seems off. While not an exact science, it is usually good enough to find actionable places to trade.
 
I think i feel fucking sick. Have been pucking up coins every day these last four days. Lost about a fifth of my coins.
Almost back at where i started. Except for all the time, effort and stress.

Worst trader ever.

On okcoin it just retraced to the price of a couple of hours ago. On finex that -7 ffs.
 
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fatjohn said:
I think i feel fucking sick. Have been pucking up coins every day these last four days. Lost about a fifth of my coins.
Almost back at where i started. Except for all the time, effort and stress.

Worst trader ever.
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Sorry to hear that.

One thing you can do, if you're long on the coin, is just set some sell orders wherever you need to to make it back, and forget about those coins.

Remember buy and hold beats most strategies if you just wait to buy until it's been pretty flat for a few weeks.

The other thing to remember, that I know from poker, is everyone has a string of bad luck. (Everyone gambling that is.) Sometimes that bad luck causes bad decisions. People play best when they are not burned out, too. Being away from the table makes you hungry, and gets you ready to hunt.

Good luck out there!

On okcoin it just retraced to the price of a couple of hours ago. On finex that -7 ffs.
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BTCe was just briefly above both Stamp and Finex. The arb is less than 1%.
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During the climb btce was following closely to the larger exchanges because no one wanted to move their money, I suppose. Now it's been flat for a minute, and I suspected a whale arb move happening this morning when huobi and okcoin went up 3-4%, then back down about the same amount, but btce only came back down 2%.

Pump huobi, sell high, buy at btce, upward pressure on btce keeping price higher, making 1 min chart trading even more risky than it already is!
 
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presence said:
On btcusd I'm looking for consolidation

nQpVGFo.png
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Everything is going according to plan. Chill and panic hodl.

QD5WLdC.png

ObnPccC.png
 
Don't get shaken by whale games.

2h 1h and 30m cny OBV all mooned while price tanked in china.

BVSNuSo.png



CaptainClaw: kmccrindle, dump to 0.01CNY probably hacked
kmccrindle: captainclaw that is crazy.did you buy? lol.
CaptainClaw: kmccrindle, and people who bought during the dump got their accounts locked when the tried to withdraw
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Cronos: just logged in to my OK account...and guess what OK doctored their LTC chart, erased the dump! just like reddit peeps said
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v081cB7.png

vaSSyPi.png

TPB5snN.png
 
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This little drop is on moderate volume so it will probably need to be retested in the coming hours. If that holds on lower volume (more bullish on a higher low), I'm good for a long re-entry.

edit: certainly did not hold, blew right through support.
 
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Well, I'm out. I have one coin left over in profit. I dont think this is just a correction anymore. Nothing gets bid, no trendlines are trending up anymore, 10 day moving average and less is or is starting to trend down.

And i need to pickup my life outside of bitcoin again. It was fun for a while imagining to be rich.

Edit: on the plus side for you guys, good chance this is the bottom.
 
fatjohn said:
Well, I'm out. I have one coin left over in profit. I dont think this is just a correction anymore. Nothing gets bid, no trendlines are trending up anymore, 10 day moving average and less is or is starting to trend down.

And i need to pickup my life outside of bitcoin again. It was fun for a while imagining to be rich.

Edit: on the plus side for you guys, good chance this is the bottom.
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Don't quit now, the fun is just getting started.

Back to 380 by this weekend. Because...bitcoin.
 
Detected some climactic action last night, nabbed a long at $300 (futures), half size position.

Check the 20:00 2h candle on Finex; closed well off the low on very high volume. The only time that happens is when heavy selling is met with high quality buying. That's usually enough to cause a good bounce if not a reversal of the previous move.
 
kfarnan said:
Presence, Is the Market place still holding?
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YES!

We were in on Sept 27 at 233; We sold almost the exact peak on Nov 4th at 450+; and bought back at $404.... holdling since. We're currently holding 100% quantitative without a hard timer. Green Dragon primary mode for 559 hours and counting.


I retuned the Nov 4th (subclass 1.5) event for the next version update I'm working on for the five trades of best fit. It now catches another short on the second leg down. This development fork is also now holding.

Honey Badger Z22 Dev Fork
OrBNDfy.png



You can read more about that here:

https://discuss.tradewave.net/t/the-honey-badger-support-thread/392/335?u=litepresence


I'll have the new version out to the marketplace as soon its fully tested, it will also include a new Iceberg module. I only had a few hours to run backtests on it yesterday, but it seems compatible with the other seven subclass 1.5 trades back to the dawn of bitcoin.

nSPogdA.png







I'm personally continuing to hodl my 00985 LTCs from a few days ago. We took a heavy dip there to 00840 but I held through. 00966 last.

I'm looking for a push to 01370.






The marketplace algo as CURRENTLY running LIVE is tuned like this:

hzNg4ns.png



It was tuned like this when it made the actual LIVE Nov4th sell and Nov 5th buy:

L4gayQI.png
 
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Judge Judy takes on "Bitcoin Scammer"

1. Scammer: I'm selling a truck for $2000.
2. Buyer to Scammer: I'll buy it.
3. Scammer to BTC Seller: I want to buy $2000 worth of BTC.
4. BTC Seller to Scammer: Deposit $2000 in account #123456
5. Scammer to Buyer: Deposit $2000 in account #123456
6. Buyer to Scammer: I deposited the money.
7. Scammer to BTC Seller: I deposited the money.
8. BTC Seller to Scammer: Here are your bitcoins.
9. Buyer to Scammer: where is my truck?
10. (crickets)
11. Buyer to Judge Judy: I was scammed. I want my money back.


12. Judge Judy to BTC Seller: You are a scammer. We are giving the money back.


Result: Scammer has gained $2000 in BTC. Buyer gets his money back. BTC Seller has lost $2000 in BTC.
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epic Judy fail


 
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He should have brought a counter claim for the 2k, those judge shows pay whatever they're after. The fine print disclaimer at the end of the show says all parties are paid by the show.

Still the judge seems very rude to not even hear further info. Although... why the guy went on the show in the first place is beyond me unless he just wanted the guy to be paid off without it coming out of his pocket.
 
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