The ILLINOIS RESULTS to watch (links to all results INCLUDING DELEGATES RESULTS)

It says 12 delegates are tied to the state convention. I wonder how those delegates are selected. Any chance we pick up any of those 12?
 
SCOTUSman said:
Looks like zero delegates in the non-beauty contest. Even worse than the beauty contest.
Click to expand...

QFT -- shows the importance of educating our voters. They are still the most uninformed of the bunch on how the nominee is actually selected. The vote % is worse for our delegates than it is in the popular vote for RP.
 
SCOTUSman said:
It says 12 delegates are tied to the state convention. I wonder how those delegates are selected. Any chance we pick up any of those 12?
Click to expand...
Sadly not likely. I believe they will be chosen at the convention by a combination of party insiders and the elected delegates (The estimated 42 Romney and the 12 Santorum delegates.) My guess, they go all for Romney (unless there are stealth Paul delegates in the elected Romney and Santorum delegates, but there would have to be alot - and that would be VERY unlikely in IL because the campaigns chose their delegate slates months ago.)
 
mczerone said:
So 95% of delegates going to Mitt, 5% to Frothy.

Stick a fork in Paul's delegate strategy.
Click to expand...

Well, the delegate strategy is

1) Prevent Mitt Romney from getting 1144 delegates before Tampa (preventing a first ballot victory for Romney)

2) ???

3) Profit


Very bad results today, sure, but nothing unexpected having to do with Paul. Romney soundly beat Santorum. That's bad news.

Priority 1 is make sure Romney doesn't get 1144. And he got way more than half the delegates. That's the bad part, and it's really the only thing we should be measuring.

In June, some of us will be saying "yay, Ron Paul got 20 delegates" and someone else will say "but Romney passed 1144, and we're DONE." And the 2nd person will be right.

When there's a 2nd ballot in Tampa, we just don't know what will happen. Amazingly, we might find that delegates might switch to Paul. It's theoretically possible, and that's the strategy. Our strategy is alive until Romney gets 1144. So, our #1 goal should be to prevent Romney from getting 1144.

Santorum should realize that preventing Romney from getting 1144 is his only way to the nomination as well.
 
If our primary goal was to stop Romney from getting to 1144, we would have voted for Santorum delegates instead of Paul delegates.
 
SCOTUSman said:
If our primary goal was to stop Romney from getting to 1144, we would have voted for Santorum delegates instead of Paul delegates.
Click to expand...
Not only that, you might expect the campaign to actually attack Romney instead of the only guy capable of stopping him from getting the magic number....
 
I casted my first ever vote today for the good Doctor. Illinois is absolutely horrible when it comes to politics but no matter what happens I will always be proud of the work that we have done.
 
parocks said:
Well, the delegate strategy is

1) Prevent Mitt Romney from getting 1144 delegates before Tampa (preventing a first ballot victory for Romney)

2) ???

3) Profit


Very bad results today, sure, but nothing unexpected having to do with Paul. Romney soundly beat Santorum. That's bad news.

Priority 1 is make sure Romney doesn't get 1144. And he got way more than half the delegates. That's the bad part, and it's really the only thing we should be measuring.

In June, some of us will be saying "yay, Ron Paul got 20 delegates" and someone else will say "but Romney passed 1144, and we're DONE." And the 2nd person will be right.

When there's a 2nd ballot in Tampa, we just don't know what will happen. Amazingly, we might find that delegates might switch to Paul. It's theoretically possible, and that's the strategy. Our strategy is alive until Romney gets 1144. So, our #1 goal should be to prevent Romney from getting 1144.

Santorum should realize that preventing Romney from getting 1144 is his only way to the nomination as well.
Click to expand...
^This
 
Jeffersonian2012 said:
I casted my first ever vote today for the good Doctor. Illinois is absolutely horrible when it comes to politics but no matter what happens I will always be proud of the work that we have done.
Click to expand...

I agree. Not only is IL known has having some of the most corrupt politicians in the US, it is also known as one of the least free states in the US.

For example.
Freedom Rankings http://mercatus.org/freedom-in-the-50-states/IL
#41 Overall
#29 Economic
#49 Personal

I am still happy Ron Paul got 3rd in the popular vote, even though he didn't get a single delegate. It proved all of the polling companies wrong. BTW, Paul was also 3rd with early voting.
 
#Winning!

U.S. House - District 13 - GOP Primary
551 of 612 Precincts Reporting - 90%

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR="class: eln-subhed-table, bgcolor: #999999"]
[TD="width: 5%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 35%"]Name[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%"]Party[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]Votes[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]Vote %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-bodyregular"]
[TD="width: 5%"]
check.gif
[/TD]
[TD="width: 35%"]Johnson, Tim (i)[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%"]GOP[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]33,891[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-bodyreg-bar, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="width: 5%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 35%"]Metzger, Frank[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%"]GOP[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]9,043[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-bodyregular"]
[TD="width: 5%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 35%"]Firsching, Michael[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%"]GOP[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]6,301[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Meanwhile on the other side, it's still a close race but not likely to happen for either of these 2 in November:

U.S. House - District 13 - Dem Primary
551 of 612 Precincts Reporting - 90%

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR="class: eln-subhed-table, bgcolor: #999999"]
[TD="width: 5%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 35%"]Name[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%"]Party[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]Votes[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]Vote %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-bodyregular"]
[TD="width: 5%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 35%"]Gill, David[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%"]Dem[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]14,645[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-bodyreg-bar, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="width: 5%"][/TD]
[TD="width: 35%"]Goetten, Matthew[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%"]Dem[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]13,220[/TD]
[TD="width: 20%, align: right"]47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Last edited:
gerryb said:
They are still the most uninformed of the bunch on how the nominee is actually selected. The vote % is worse for our delegates than it is in the popular vote for RP.
Click to expand...

This is not true.
I think maybe you are confused because you see some districts where there are 3 Paul delegates each getting 3%. You have to remember that this is effectively 9% when you are dealing with 12 delegate candidates (3 for each candidate.)

In fact, if you calculate this properly, you add up all the votes for Paul delegates and divide by the total votes for delegates. (Skip the 4 districts without Santorum delegates to keep things fair).
When you do this you get the following (this is based off of 98.6% reporting)

Romney ---- Beauty Vote = 46.72% / / / Delegate Vote = 45.73%
Santorum -- Beauty Vote = 35.01% / / / Delegate Vote = 34.91%
Paul ------ Beauty Vote = 09.32% / / / Delegate Vote = 09.68%
Gingrich -- Beauty Vote = 07.95% / / / Delegate Vote = 09.39%

By this measure, the Gingrich voters seem the most responsible in voting for the right delegates, Paul voters come in Second, Santorum voters third, and Romney voters were the least responsible. This is not a totally fair statistical way to compare this, but it is the best I can do with the data currently available. It at least gives us a ballpark idea that Paul voters are more-or-less equally informed in regard to the process as every other voter.
 
Last edited:
Perhaps gerryb meant that Ron Paul received 9% of the vote but 0% of the delegates. However, by your math, it seems you are correct.
 
Keith and stuff said:
Perhaps gerryb meant that Ron Paul received 9% of the vote but 0% of the delegates. However, by your math, it seems you are correct.
Click to expand...
Well yes, the delegates are directly voted on within each district, so it is basically winner-take-all within each district assuming people vote for the delegates properly. Based on what I showed above, there are not any significant anomolies in how people chose delegates compared to the beauty contest.
In other words, we did not win any delegates because our delegates did not have the most votes in any district. The Beauty contest results also show we did not have the most votes anywhere.
 
Last edited:
SCOTUSman said:
If our primary goal was to stop Romney from getting to 1144, we would have voted for Santorum delegates instead of Paul delegates.
Click to expand...

Or, we weren't thinking strategically. Perhaps we were doing what we ENJOY, not what was in our best interest. But that's typically what we do.

I read, here, posted just today, that billboards in Texas are a good idea, because it's a "creative outlet" for the grassroots. Ah, I get it, this is a big circle jerk, cmon, bring the vaseline, you'll need if for later anyway.

People know who Ron Paul is by now.

We (the grassroots) should be as nasty to Romney as possible. 1) because <1144 is necessary for any Tampa strategy to work and 2) in Tampa, Romney will be damaged and therefore less likely to pick up the delegates he needs in Tampa.

We got no, zero, zip delegates in Illinois.

Let's see how many additional CD delegates Santorum (or Gingrich) would've gotten if we realized that we weren't at all close to likely to get in Illinois.
 
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