The Global Economy Is Not "Off The Lows"

[DamianTV]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-26/global-economy-not-lows

n the day when the MSCI World Stock Index hits a fresh record high - enthused by the exuberance of the US markets - we thought it more than a little ironic that Global GDP growth expectations for 2015 just hit a fresh record low...

Growth Expectations not "off the lows"

Equities not "off the highs"

Welcome to the surreal world.

...

Full article on Link.

Related pretty chart with some nice pictures. Everybody go "ooooh and aaaaah" now...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-26/3-things-high-yield-warning-yellens-employment-economy

 

[Zippyjuan]

Chart #1 shows the global economy expected- not actual- growth.
That expected growth rate is still positive. That means that the global economy is still expected to expand- not contract.

What has real global GDP growth looked like? Actually not that far from its twenty year average (though a little lower).

https://thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/low-gear.jpg

 

[Jordan]

Jesus H.

The HY universe is something like 15-20% energy. Junk bonds basically paid for all the capex in energy in the past few years. It's massive. Exclude the energy credits, and spreads wouldn't be as wide as they are now.

Also, there are a lot of different technical factors that exist today than didn't in the past. Open-ended funds for HY hold a lot more AUM now than in the past, and fixed-income inventories are a hell of a lot lower than they used to be. An outflow in a HY fund today has a much bigger impact on day-to-day spreads than it might have before. Marginal, but worth discussing.

Spreads have also come down considerably from when that chart conveniently cuts off.

 

[oyarde]

Continued stagnation is what I suspect .