The Five Stages of Collapse

[silverhawks]

This is a very enlightening read - an account of someone who lived through the Russian Debt default in '98.

The Five Stages of Collapse

And by the same writer:

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US


Both are amazing reads, and well recommended.

Basically, the 'TLDR' version of the first article would be what most here are doing already:

1) Get to know your neighbours. Prepare together, build a self-sufficient community that trusts each other.

To make it intact through times of great need, the only reasonable approach, it seems to me, is to form communities that are strong and cohesive enough to provide for the well-being of all of their members, that are large enough to be resourceful, yet small enough so that people can relate to each other directly, and to take direct responsibility for each other's well-being.

2) Start planting a garden.

I myself am in the process of planting our vegetable garden, and setting up a gardening co-op with all of my neighbours.

My immediate next door neighbour is a hunter, so will be teaching me to shoot. In return, I'll be building planters for a co-op garden we're building between our two houses.

3) Start stocking up on essentials.

We already have a room with shelving put aside that we're gradually filling up.

I'm also going to build a rain harvesting system along one of my fences, and get a watermaker and a proper water filtration system.

4) Get some gold and silver.

5) Get all the "how-to" books you can lay your hands on.

I've already done this by getting a ton of PDF's online to print out, ranging from survival to first aid to woodworking to renewable energy projects.

I'm also setting up a workshop in our sun porch, so that I can do carpentry and metalwork there if need be.

My wife is going to run a series of tutorials for neighbours (men and women alike) in canning and pickling, and my neighbour has expressed some interest at starting a shooting club.

I'm also looking up solar and other renewable energy projects that I could put together in a garage, to share with the neighbours; particularly handy in this regard is the fact that the neighbour that lives across from us is a mechanic, with a full workshop in his garage. In a relatively small area, we're finding that we have a lot of skilled manual labourers.

We're going to start this small - just a neighbourhood meet up and a grill for Memorial Day in our cul-de-sac, and build from there.

 

[Athan]

What do you advise on PDF's? Just curious if you found some gems.

 

[raiha]

Dmitry Orlov wrote this article and in 2008, he thought the US was at Stage One. It would be interesting to know where he thinks you are today. I might see if i can find out.

In the end, everything collapses, but then... the new is able to come in. It's a necessity.The Greenspan Era is over.

 

[Acala]

Orlov

I read Orlov's book and was not impressed. He seems to have no understanding of the ways in which free markets and particularly entrepreneurs work and so his predictions for the US seemed way off the mark to me. He is also an apologist for the command economy and government-run enterprise. And a Peak Oily to boot.

 

[Deborah K]

I posted this back in Sept 09: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=211761 the link to the article is broken now but I posted a lot of the article. Say what you will about Orlov, he makes some really good observations and got me thinking about what to do in the scenarios he mentions - especially in the area of security.

 

[Acala]

Useful

I posted this back in Sept 09: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=211761 the link to the article is broken now but I posted a lot of the article. Say what you will about Orlov, he makes some really good observations and got me thinking about what to do in the scenarios he mentions - especially in the area of security.

If you find his observations useful, excellent! Can't ask for more.

 

[thesurvivor]

I posted this back in Sept 09: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=211761 the link to the article is broken now but I posted a lot of the article. Say what you will about Orlov, he makes some really good observations and got me thinking about what to do in the scenarios he mentions - especially in the area of security.

I remember reading this article on line... the guy is not a stupid man... and americans would be wise to actually read what he says and apply the parts that you need...

 

[phill4paul]

Agree with all except 4. Lead is more precious than gold. Always has been always will be.

 

[Uriel999]

Agree with all except 4. Lead is more precious than gold. Always has been always will be.

Lead and booze. lol.

 

[DamianTV]

So, what stage are we in?

 

[Intuition]

I think we're in the early parts of political collapse, but I maintain the right to be totally wrong.

 

[crushingstep7]

+1 for more valuable metals (in an immediate sense) being out there...

brass, copper, lead! If you know what to do with them, even better.

Besides that, I think silver would serve as a better currency for the person who isn't and probably won't be ridiculously wealthy.

 

[osan]

The Five Stages of Collapse

Dmitry Orlov? Smart guy. We've had some interesting exchanges. Very smart guy.

 

[osan]

So, what stage are we in?

It's not a stage 1, then stage 2, then... progression. I would say we are well into 1 with a good foot into 2 and beginning to flirt with three. Four and five may seem far off, and they are, but if we get far into 3, 4 and 5 could possibly fall upon us in a flash. Just as with many other things, social order is not only tentative, but maintained by people remaining on a certain side of a certain line. Once a threshold is crossed, things begin changing rapidly. I certainly hope it will not happen, but mass chaos, death, destruction, and disease could descend upon us with blinding speed. It all depends on how people react to deteriorating conditions. Thus far the people are remaining cool, though I hear Greeks are now rioting. Will that spread across Europe? Only time will tell, I suppose. The USA is fortunate in having two large oceans separating it from hell holes like China and Europe. Those places could conceivably eat themselves and the USA remain intact. I don't know how likely that is, but I see it as a distinct possibility.