The downside to deflation in a debt-based monetary system?

seraphson

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Okay...

Not sure how this exploded into 18 pages but perhaps I should rephrase the question.
What exactly does deflation do in a debt-based money system?
Is it any more different than say a gold standard money system?
Deflation is usually considered a balancing behavior to reach equilibrium in an inflated free market system; so just enough deflation to reach equilibrium is good; too much is obviously bad.
In our current deb-based money system why does Bernanke want housing prices back up? Is it because at the current pricing levels they don't pay back the money that was credited into existence with their construction?

Old version:
I was curious (after doing an advanced search for 'deflation collapse' with no results) why is the deflationary market pressures so bad for our inflationary debt-based system?

I recall housing prices being very low and Greenspan mentioning that burning the 'extra' houses down from the housing bubble was a swell idea to get the prices back up.

Is the reason deflation is so bad (from a Bernanke point of view) because the value of items decrease making it easier to pay for them; which is bad in our inflationary model since paying off debt is actually akin to "destroying" "money"? But I thought wages go down as well as prices so that confuses me. Any answers would be appreciated. Thanks!
 
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I would say to sum up the mainstream economic thought, that deflation causes people to not spend their money because they know if they wait they will be able to afford more in the future.
 
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I would say to sum up the mainstream economic thought, that deflation causes people to not spend their money because they know if they wait they will be able to afford more in the future.

That describes one perspective of a hyperdeflation. Whereas hyperinflation causes shortages of goods, because everyone knows they will get more tomorrow than today, hyperdeflation causes a shortage of currency for the opposite reason; namely, money will be worth more tomorrow than today.

But that ignores the extremes. Hyperinflation is where a currency supply increases toward infinity, its value moves toward zero. Hyperdeflation is the opposite, because as the supply approaches zero, its value goes toward infinity.

The ultimate problem with hyper-deflation is that it causes people not to have any money to spend in the first place, without regard to whether or not they want to spend any. In hyperdeflation feeds on itself, because the value of whatever scarce currency you have increases, but so does the value of your DEBTS - the nominal value of which stays the same.

All of this is based on a fatal design flaw of the debt-based system itself.

A debt-based monetary system can only be inflationary, and can only survive for a time - as when an economy is productive and the population is growing. Perpetually. This is because the principle is created, but not the interest to pay any of the debt. The interest has to come from the prior existing currency. This makes banks a wealth siphon. In a very short time, all the claims on existing currency outnumber all the currency in existence, and often by orders of magnitude. This in turn makes it physically, mathematically impossible to pay down the aggregate debt, because if you even tried, the money supply would disappear entirely (as interest siphoned away), long before all the debt was paid. So there would be no currency in existence, and the outstanding debts would still not be paid.

Hence, the system must expand, exponentially, as a perpetual inflationary spiral -- FOREVER -- to survive. Once the system can no longer expand, no long take on new debts (new principle to pay down the old principle plus interest), the entire system implodes. This is because all that remains are claims on currency -- again, which forever outnumber the currency itself.

It has nothing to do with people wanting to spend or not. There's an old saying from the Great [deflationary] Depression, that "Anybody who had two dimes to rub together was king. The problem is, nobody had two dimes to rub together."

That is not a case of people hanging onto their money during the TRANSIENT deflationary crash. That is a case of nobody even having a medium of exchange to work with AFTER the crash. After all prices have already hit the floor.
 
But that ignores the extremes. Hyperinflation is where a currency supply increases toward infinity, its value moves toward zero. Hyperdeflation is the opposite, because as the supply approaches zero, its value goes toward infinity.

If interest rates go up by n%, the available credit available credit goes down. Suppose you were going to take out a 20k car loan at x% and now the interest rate for that loan goes up. You monthly payment was going to be $300 per month, and that's the most you could afford. Now the interest rate goes up by n% so your monthly payment would go up by (20k)*e^((n+x)*time). Suppose this makes your payment go to $350 per month and you can't afford it so you don't buy the car. This causes a deflationary force and now the car maker must lower the price of cars because there is not enough credit around to purchase cars at $20k.

This is my limited understanding of economics. If you let the market determine the interest rates, there's nothing wrong with inflation or deflation. They are normal market forces. But the issue is that the federal reserve is price fixing by controlling the price of interest rates.

Please correct me as I am an newbie at this lol
 
Excellent responses guys. So in short, Benny is scared of deflation because when deflationary pressures (as what's to come with higher gas prices and another deeper deep into the recession) become too strong all prior debt that needs to be paid off (principle + interest) becomes overwhelmingly expensive, correct?
 
The higher gas price is an inflationary force as I understand it. The increase in the money supply due to artificially low interest rates is causing the price of gas to go up.
 
If you let the market determine the interest rates, there's nothing wrong with inflation or deflation.

...in an economy with sound money, and no fractional reserve lending.

Interest rates act as a control on the rate of inflation in a debt-based economy. The greater the interest rates, the more expensive the currency, which discourages frivolous borrowing and malinvestment, but it also increases the rate at which currency is siphoned out as debts are paid.

They are normal market forces. But the issue is that the federal reserve is price fixing by controlling the price of interest rates.

Absent a central bank or artificial inflationary mechanisms (counterfeit meddling with the currency supply in any form), both interest rates and inflation/deflation are normal market forces, as natural and healthy as inhaling and exhaling.
 
I would say to sum up the mainstream economic thought, that deflation causes people to not spend their money because they know if they wait they will be able to afford more in the future.

And since people are not buying then companies not selling as many goods start laying off people so they have less mone to spend and so consumption falls further so companies lay off more people.....

This is why major deflations are typically associated with high rates of unemployment.
 
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And since people are not buying then companies not selling as many goods start laying off people so they have less mone to spend and so consumption falls further so companies lay off more people.....

And you have the deflationary death spiral that destroys an economy. Remember the 1920 depression? Those imbeciles cut spending in half and the Fed didn't inflate and the 1920s were a decade of misery. Oh, wait...
 
I would say to sum up the mainstream economic thought, that deflation causes people to not spend their money because they know if they wait they will be able to afford more in the future.

Maybe I'm confused, but It's my impression that you would rather spend money in a deflationary environment. In a deflationary environment, your money has more purchasing power. Think of gas. You were able to buy gas for less money last week than you could this week...
 
Maybe I'm confused, but It's my impression that you would rather spend money in a deflationary environment. In a deflationary environment, your money has more purchasing power. Think of gas. You were able to buy gas for less money last week than you could this week...

And if you wait until next week, you can buy even more. Why buy that TV now when it will cost less a month or whatever from now- especially if you don't need it today?

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2143/economics/inflation-and-poverty/
Deflation tends to reduce aggregate demand and economic activity.
If people expect prices to fall, people delay consumption and investment leading to lower output, and higher unemployment.
Deflation increases the real value of debts. This reduces living standards of those saddled with debts delaying growth and expansion.
In periods of deflation, nominal wages tend to be sticky downwards causing real wage unemployment.

- The worst period for poverty in the UK was not periods of high inflation (like the 1970s and late 80s). The worst periods were the 1920s and 1930s. Deflation in the 1920s was a major factor in causing mass unemployment and prolonging the great depression.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5814/is_n3_v29/ai_n28604039/
The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the 1920-21 recession from a general business peak in January 1920 to a trough in July 1921. It was mild at first. Wholesale prices continued to increase until May 1920, four months past the general business peak. By July 1920, the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production had declined by only 7 percent from its January peak, and factory employment had fallen 7.3 percent.

The contraction then became severe. By the year's end, industrial production had fallen 25.6 percent below its January 1920 peak and bottomed out at 32.6 percent below its January 1920 level in July 1921, the general business trough. Wholesale prices were 42.9 percent below their May 1920 peak by July 1921. Industrial production had fallen by 32.6 percent in eighteen months, wholesale prices by 42.9 percent in fourteen months. The deflation eliminated more than 70 percent of the rise in wholesale prices associated with World War I.

Civilian unemployment rose substantially during the recession. According to Lebergott [1964, 512], the unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for both 1918 and 1919, 5.2 percent for 1920, and 11.7 percent for 1921.
 
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Maybe I'm confused, but It's my impression that you would rather spend money in a deflationary environment. In a deflationary environment, your money has more purchasing power. Think of gas. You were able to buy gas for less money last week than you could this week...

If prices are crashing most people will sit on their money until prices stop falling, but at some point prices will be low enough where you don't want to wait anymore. That's why there is no such thing as a Keynesian death spiral. People aren't going to starve to death because food might be cheaper tomorrow. Eventually prices fall to the point where there is demand for them and business inputs are cheap enough for entrepreneurs to buy up the failed companies and put people back to work. This obviously wouldn't be painless, but deflation like this only occurs after an inflationary boom, so we ought to learn to stay away from those.
 
Deflation tends to reduce aggregate demand and economic activity.
If people expect prices to fall, people delay consumption and investment leading to lower output, and higher unemployment.
Deflation increases the real value of debts. This reduces living standards of those saddled with debts delaying growth and expansion.
In periods of deflation, nominal wages tend to be sticky downwards causing real wage unemployment.

- The worst period for poverty in the UK was not periods of high inflation (like the 1970s and late 80s). The worst periods were the 1920s and 1930s. Deflation in the 1920s was a major factor in causing mass unemployment and prolonging the great depression.

LOL. People really do buy this shit, don't they. If your measurement of poverty is nominal wages in inflated money of course deflation looks a lot worse. And deflation has never caused long tern unemployment. Government enforced wage controls in a deflationary environment will do the trick though. (See Great Britain in the 1920s and 30s.)

The early 1920s must have been some kind of miracle. The CPI fell almost 16% from mid 1920 to mid 1921 (a bigger drop than any point in the Great Depression), yet unemployment peaked at 11.7% in 1921, fell to 6.7% in 1922, and 2.4% in 1923. All without wage controls and government stimulus.
 
Unemployment going from 1.4% to 11.7 percent in tw0 years is a pretty big rise- a tenfold increase.

What effect- if any- do you think that a serious deflation would have on unemployment?

It also depends on the reason for the deflation. If prices are falling due to increases in productivity then the unemployment will not rise by much if any but if the deflation is being caused by falling demand for goods then it can start to feed on itself more. Long and broad deflations are more often tied to falling demands.
 
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Unemployment going from 1.4% to 11.7 percent in tw0 years is a pretty big rise- a tenfold increase.

I know. It was a severe correction after inflating for the war. It's pretty incredible how unemployment was back down to 2% 2 years after prices crashed by 16% and there was no monetary or fiscal stimulus.

Then 10 years later prices fall half as much, the government gets involved and creates a decade long depression, and deflation gets the blame.
 
Steven
because as the supply approaches zero, its value goes toward infinity.

But that never happens because goods exist, which means there is a supply.

The problem with the hypothetical is that you didn't account for economic law "... at what price?..."

All economic goods have a price, and at some price there will be a sale.
Humans require economic goods to live, and at some price there will be a sale.

Therefore, there will always be a buyer and a seller at some price. Your theory of 'hyperdeflation' simply cannot exist.

Because hyperinflation, and the destruction of the value of money does exist does NOT mean that an opposite -hyperdeflation- must exist.
 
U

It also depends on the reason for the deflation. If prices are falling due to increases in productivity then the unemployment will not rise by much if any but if the deflation is being caused by falling demand for goods then it can start to feed on itself more. Long and broad deflations are more often tied to falling demands.

There appears nothing more confusing to people then the cause of inflation/deflation - yet, the concept is incredibly simple.

Money is merely another economic good, like any other economic good, and obeys exactly the same laws of economics like any other economic good.

It's only "additional" feature is that it merely happens to be the most desired economic good in an economy, and thus, a lot of people want to trade for it and trade with it.

The law of supply and demand applies to money exactly the same way the law of supply and demand applies to apples and oranges and cars, etc.


If the supply of apples is high vs. the demand of apples, the price of apples will fall.
If the supply of apples is low vs. the demand of apples, the price of apples will go up.

If the supply of money is high vs. the demand of money, the price of money will fall.
If the supply of money is low vs. the demand for money, the price of money will go up.

But because the rest of the economic goods in trade is measured in relation to money - that is we "price" all economic goods in terms of the money - the way we see the rise and fall in the price of money is by the amount of money it takes to trade for an economic good.

Thus, when the price of money falls due to oversupply, it will take more money-goods to trade for the same amount of other economic goods - the result of "needing more money" is equal to "the price of other goods goes up".

When the price of money rises due to under-supply, it will take less money-goods to trade for the same amount of other economic goods - the result of "needing less money" is equal to "the price of other goods goes down"

Note that there is not one thing here that has anything to do with a "falling demand for (other) goods" - it is solely the rise and fall of the price of money itself due to the increase/decrease in the supply of money PERIOD - no more than the rise and fall of the price of apples depends on the rise and fall of demand of automobiles..... we look at the rise and fall of the supply of apples in attributing to the rise and fall of the price of apples, and pay no attention to the demand/supply of automobiles!

Do the same with money....
 
because as the supply approaches zero, its value goes toward infinity.
But that never happens because goods exist, which means there is a supply.

I'm talking about supply of currency, not goods or services available for exchange, although they are impacted as well during a debt deflation, as happened leading into the Great Depression, as described by Irving Fisher in 1933 as nine interlinked factors for cause and effect:

Assuming, accordingly, that, at some point of time, a state of over-indebtedness exists, this will tend to lead to liquidation, through the alarm either of debtors or creditors or both. Then we may deduce the following chain of consequences in nine links:

1) Debt liquidation leads to distress selling and to
2) Contraction of deposit currency, as bank loans are paid off, and to a slowing down of velocity of circulation. This contraction of deposits and of their velocity, precipitated by distress selling, causes
3) A fall in the level of prices, in other words, a swelling of the dollar. Assuming, as above stated, that this fall of prices is not interfered with by reflation or otherwise, there must be
4) A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies and
5) A like fall in profits, which in a "capitalistic," that is, a private-profit society, leads the concerns which are running at a loss to make
6) A reduction in output, in trade and in employment of labor. These losses, bankruptcies and unemployment, lead to
7) pessimism and loss of confidence, which in turn lead to
8) Hoarding and slowing down still more the velocity of circulation.

The above eight changes cause (9) Complicated disturbances in the rates of interest, in particular, a fall in the nominal, or money, rates and a rise in the real, or commodity, rates of interest.

Both hyperinflation and hyperdeflation are strictly monetary phenomena, having little to do with a scarcity or abundance of goods. Shortages of goods under hyperinflation are not because of a scarcity of goods, but rather a glut - virtually no scarcity - of the currency. A shortage of money under hyperdeflation also has nothing to do with the supply of goods, but rather an absolutely scarcity of currency with which to buy them.

The problem with the hypothetical is that you didn't account for economic law "... at what price?..."

At what price indeed, the real question is "at what quantity of what"? If there is no currency available to you, it really does not matter what the price is in that currency. You can try to price what you want or need in other things, but with no competing currencies, you're talking barter.

The bigger economic law - the fundamental that most don't take into account, is that a debt-money based economy - an economy where money can only be created as a form of debt - is only viable in a productive, growing economy, with at least moderate inflation required to sustain it. But the economy MUST perpetually expand, taking on ever-increasing (exponentially increasing) amounts of debt to sustain the monetary system, as designed, because it is nothing more than a vast network of inverted pyramids.

All economic goods have a price, and at some price there will be a sale.
Humans require economic goods to live, and at some price there will be a sale.

Again, see above.

Also, I didn't agree with the premise that the primary cause of deflation is tight-fisted people who are hanging onto their money, rubbing their two dimes together, waiting for better prices. That will happen in some areas, but it's incidental. That notion is based on the Keynesian bogeyman called the "Paradox of Thrift", which attempts to make currency holders (read = non-existent savers in our monetary regime) into the primary "liquidity trap" of sorts - the Deflationary Would-Be Monsters who can't be trusted with their own money, because they won't circulate it enough.

Under deflationary contraction, however, nobody even has money to be tight-fisted about. With the currency scarce, most can't even meet the nominal price of their own past and current obligations, let alone have discretionary income to spend. Savings have already been taxed practically out of existence for most in our current highly distorted economy, which encouraged a mass shift to market investments as a mechanism for beating the perpetual inflation required to keep the Ponzi money system afloat.

Therefore, there will always be a buyer and a seller at some price. Your theory of 'hyperdeflation' simply cannot exist.

Again, priced in what, and is it available at any price? Who could get a loan ten years ago? Now, out of those people, how many can get one today?

There is no accepted definition for hyperdeflation, so I think of it loosely as prices falling, rapidly and substantially over a very short period of time (call it a "crash), and primarily as a result of a contraction of the money supply - which in our debt-money regime means contraction of credit, because that is the only way money is created. Using this meaning, hyperdeflation most definitely occurred during the Great Depression, which was a deflationary depression with a period where the money supply contracted rapidly, and prices fell sharply everywhere. Goods and services rapidly hit a floor. Anyone with two dimes to rub together could buy just about anything for a song, but few had two dimes to rub together. That is the nature of a deflation, because credit, and therefore the money supply itself, had contracted/imploded.

Because hyperinflation, and the destruction of the value of money does exist does NOT mean that an opposite -hyperdeflation- must exist.

True. However, while the reality of one does not necessarily require its opposite, neither does it preclude it. It certainly doesn't have the same dynamics, any more than death by asphyxiation has the same symptoms as death by hypoxia. However rare it is (and it is rare) hyperdeflation has happened in the past, and therefore could happen in the future.
 
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Maybe I'm confused, but It's my impression that you would rather spend money in a deflationary environment. In a deflationary environment, your money has more purchasing power. Think of gas. You were able to buy gas for less money last week than you could this week...
No, you are not spending in a deflationary environment because your money will buy even more tomorrow.
 
If prices are crashing most people will sit on their money until prices stop falling, but at some point prices will be low enough where you don't want to wait anymore.
Only if you think they won't go even lower.
That's why there is no such thing as a Keynesian death spiral. People aren't going to starve to death because food might be cheaper tomorrow.
An economy that shrinks to providing only necessities is a disaster. The only thing worse is an economy that DOESN'T provide necessities, which is a catastrophe.
Eventually prices fall to the point where there is demand for them and business inputs are cheap enough for entrepreneurs to buy up the failed companies and put people back to work. This obviously wouldn't be painless, but deflation like this only occurs after an inflationary boom, so we ought to learn to stay away from those.
The problem is that the debt money system is inherently unstable. There is positive feedback under both inflationary and deflationary conditions.
 
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