The dollar is NOT going to collapse...YOU need to wake up

[cheapseats]

Only a matter of time.

Timing isn't everything, but it's a lot of it. America will want to take a look at who made big money BEFORE the crash...strike that, correction. Easy enough to do with that fancy schmancy IRS we have. Add a few lines to the "long" forms for 2008 tax return, the better to report income by quarter. We wanna see who all got out unscathed.

In the movie Titanic you can see some people in denial that the party is over.

In real life, not everyone became dead or destitute. Some people made a killing. Those are the guys we need to identify now.

Forever is a big and dangerous word to use.

You bet. Never, as well.

There will be something new.

Always. It is the only sure thing in life.

 

[Mini-Me]

The basic principles of banking ensures that the "house" will always win.

Allow me to explain...

the Federal Reserve lends the US Treasury X amount of dollars; no matter whether it
is in the form of paper currency or credit, the bank only lends the principle, but requires that in return they receive X+1, with the '1' representing interest.

Basically if the banks only lend the principle, that means that there is never enough money in circulation to pay off the borrowed money plus the interest.

i.e. it is impossible to EVER pay back all the debt that exists in the market, thus we will always be enslaved to the banks.

The system is broken, it is time that we fixed it.

Adam L Tucker
just3ants.com

The system is broken in many ways, but it is not true that the money cannot possibly be repaid. You're forgetting that interest does not disappear once it's paid - it's recirculated back into the economy, where it can be used to pay off someone else's interest. People pay their interest with money from someone else's loan (that's where it comes from), but after they pay it, it still remains in the economy and can be used again to pay yet another person's interest, until it's finally extinguished when paid off as part of someone's principal. As long as everybody's loans are not all due at the exact same time, there's no issue here in repaying all loans without an ever-expanding money supply. Technically speaking, the Federal Reserve could keep a stable money supply if they wanted to with a stable non-expanding credit cycle, and everyone would be able to pay. (Of course, "money created out of thin air from a central bank loan" is still a really screwed up system as it is, and unfairly benefits the central bank). As long as we're not planning on deflating the money supply 100% by allowing all loans from the Fed to be paid back without replacing them, there's no issue here. Of course, if we DID want to deflate the money supply 100%, there's a corner case: Depending on whether they consider interest or principal paid down one before the other or together in proportion (with each payment), it may be impossible for the very last debtor to pay his interest. Still, that's only valid if they were planning on 100% deflation anyway. In any case, while the "money as debt" central banking system is indeed hackneyed and screwed up, it doesn't necessarily require ever-escalating debt. It's still a valid criticism to say that someone is forever enslaved to the central bank as long as any money exists at all, but it doesn't mean it can't be paid back.

As far as regular debt to commercial banks...this can be paid off for the same exact reason, in addition to the fact that not all money in circulation is necessarily involved in a fractional reserve commercial bank loan anyway (remember that most of our inflation originally comes not from the discount window but from the Treasury "borrowing" money directly from the Fed, which Congress uses to spend on various things in the economy).

 

[Mini-Me]

And I'm going to refrain from saying you probably bought into the PM bullshit they feed...not because they want you to be safe, but because they want that transaction fee. Peter Schiff is out to make a profit too...his specialty is downturns...we're in one now...why not play it to his full advantage?

Wake up...what I'm saying is the side saying there is going to be a collapse is also profiting from the fear.

IN all honesty...who here works in the finance field? Who knows really anything about modern day economics beyond introductory level and not the fairy tale utopia stuff (YES it is a good idea, and this country would have been a lot better if we followed it...but in actuality...you know real life....not happening)? Anyone...anyone? Or does everyone go off of what the next man says?

I agree that PM traders and such are enjoying the commissions, but that goes for any and all investments. Saying their advice is certainly wrong just because they're profiting from this is the same as saying all financial advice is always wrong (an obviously false argument), since someone is always profiting from the commissions.

Instead of trying to insult everyone's intelligence, please make a sensible rebuttal of my earlier post...along with everyone else's.

This doom and gloom side is just as bad as the real estate bubble side...

This currency isn't going to collapse during the recession...

You're right, the currency probably will not collapse during this recession...but it rests on many geopolitical factors. My guess is ten years, but it could theoretically happen a month from now. Again, please address my earlier post before continuing to make blind assertions.

Oh and I'm not dependant on this currency at all...so there is no bias here because of that...I can easily take any of my foreign currency holdings and survive...


I just choose to stay here in America for obvious reasons...you're here too...if everything is as bad as people make it out to seem WHY DON'T YOU GO SOMEWHERE ELSE?

To be fair, some people have fled the country to places like Australia and New Zealand. That said, I doubt many people here are willing to be driven from their own homeland by tyrants, nor are they willing to leave all of their loved ones. Besides, tyranny is not just coming to the US - it's emerging worldwide, and the lines are starting to be drawn for regional and world government. The NWO is one model of this, but I'm sure the elites of other countries have their own ideas about who should be in charge. Regardless, none of it is good news for any of us.

If all of these countries are so smart why do you stay here?

When you say "If all these countries are so smart why do you stay here?" you're conflating the people of other countries with the bankers and governments of those countries. Just because some particular country's bankers and elites are "smart" does not mean their people will be better off. You should know this damn well considering what just happened here. Besides, nobody's saying any other countries are masterminds or anything like that. Rather, we're just saying that they're not drooling idiots. Countries like China made a risky move by going neck-deep in dollars, which are now depreciating. However, they're smart enough to realize the kind of predicament they're in, and they're smart enough to take the steps necessary to cover their asses the best they can. Anyway, I said it better in my earlier post.

 

[Truth Warrior]

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." -- John Maynard Keynes

 

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

And I'm going to refrain from saying you probably bought into the PM bullshit they feed...not because they want you to be safe, but because they want that transaction fee. Peter Schiff is out to make a profit too...his specialty is downturns...we're in one now...why not play it to his full advantage?

Wake up...what I'm saying is the side saying there is going to be a collapse is also profiting from the fear.

Some sure, but that is hardly evidence that their predictions are wrong.

IN all honesty...who here works in the finance field? Who knows really anything about modern day economics beyond introductory level and not the fairy tale utopia stuff (YES it is a good idea, and this country would have been a lot better if we followed it...but in actuality...you know real life....not happening)? Anyone...anyone? Or does everyone go off of what the next man says?

Who works in the finance field? lol, wtf do those people know? I know plenty of people who work in the finance field, and most of them have very little understanding of economics. No offense to you finance guys, but many of them are salespeople and computer screen readers.

I have credentials, but no real reason to produce them. Since you're worshipping at the alter of credentials, what are yours?

I just choose to stay here in America for obvious reasons...you're here too...if everything is as bad as people make it out to seem WHY DON'T YOU GO SOMEWHERE ELSE?

So, if people think you're overly optimistic, they should spend several hundred thousand dollars moving to another country? wtf is wrong with you? Are you even listening to yourself?

 

[icon124]

^I don't sell product for a living...I invest my own money for a living. The sales traders really don't know anything about what is going on...you don't even really need a degree to do that...just a good enough persuasive personality. LOL, you don't care about credentials but then want me to produce mine...makes so much sense huh?

There is even no point to respond to half of this stuff here...

let's all just keep assuming the U.S. is coming to an end, and during this modern time our country will be in anarchy...and yeah yeah yeah the Romans thought the same thing...blah blah blah...evil NWO...we are slaves to the system....we know.

seriously...this place is becoming a lost cause.

 

[Truth Warrior]

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.
Henry Ford

 

[icon124]

want a cookie for all the quotes?

 

[Truth Warrior]

want a cookie for all the quotes?

"Got some already. Thanks anyway." -- TW

 

[Mini-Me]

^I don't sell product for a living...I invest my own money for a living. The sales traders really don't know anything about what is going on...you don't even really need a degree to do that...just a good enough persuasive personality. LOL, you don't care about credentials but then want me to produce mine...makes so much sense huh?

There is even no point to respond to half of this stuff here...

let's all just keep assuming the U.S. is coming to an end, and during this modern time our country will be in anarchy...and yeah yeah yeah the Romans thought the same thing...blah blah blah...evil NWO...we are slaves to the system....we know.

seriously...this place is becoming a lost cause.

You can say "There is even no point to respond to half of this stuff here," but you probably mean something more along the lines of, "There is no point in even responding to half of this stuff here." In that case, I believe you are using that as a cop-out to avoid responding to some of the more thorough posts in this thread.

For one thing, I spent a decent amount of time giving your original post a good-faith response explaining my reasoning, and you have thus far completely ignored it. You're basing your arguments on nothing but blind faith that the geopolitical climate will ensure the survival of the dollar for twenty years. Considering you are unwilling to seriously address any relevant criticisms of your argument, and also considering your originally civil tone has degenerated into arrogance and you've been throwing out generalized insults against apparently everyone on the forum, I'm starting to believe you never had any intention of participating in a reasoned debate at all.

 

[RickyJ]

You need to wake up. The dollar has already collapsed.

 

[RickyJ]

I don't see how they could possibly let this economy collapse...considering how much of an effect it would have on the ENTIRE world.

Funny! They can't stop the dollar from collapsing. When enough people decide the dollar is worthless it will indeed be worthless. That time is fast approaching.

 

[icon124]

You can say "There is even no point to respond to half of this stuff here," but you probably mean something more along the lines of, "There is no point in even responding to half of this stuff here." In that case, I believe you are using that as a cop-out to avoid responding to some of the more thorough posts in this thread.

For one thing, I spent a decent amount of time giving your original post a good-faith response explaining my reasoning, and you have thus far completely ignored it. You're basing your arguments on nothing but blind faith that the geopolitical climate will ensure the survival of the dollar for twenty years. Considering you are unwilling to seriously address any relevant criticisms of your argument, and also considering your originally civil tone has degenerated into arrogance and you've been throwing out generalized insults against apparently everyone on the forum, I'm starting to believe you never had any intention of participating in a reasoned debate at all.

Okay because I don't feel like going through 14 pages looking for what you want me to respond to, type it or show me it and I'll give you a response...if that'll make you feel better LOL

 

[icon124]

You need to wake up. The dollar has already collapsed.

Yeah I know that's why everyone still uses it right?

 

[Truth Warrior]

Will gold EVER go to ZERO? How about FRNS?

 

[Lord Xar]

Okay because I don't feel like going through 14 pages looking for what you want me to respond to, type it or show me it and I'll give you a response...if that'll make you feel better LOL

This is your thread. Take ownership of it and respond like a mature person.

 

[RickyJ]

This is your thread. Take ownership of it and respond like a mature person.

A mature person would realize the dollar has collapsed over 95% since 1920. A mature person would also see the skyrocketing amount of M3 money that is being pumped into the system and realize the dollar is on its last gasp. The only reason it is not worth zero right now is because all other countries also use fiat currencies. Well, fiat currencies are losing ground worldwide to bartering, gold, silver, diamonds, oil and food on a daily basis. Soon a new currency will have to be created because no one will accept fiat for anything anywhere no matter what law tells them they have to.

 

[Mini-Me]

Okay because I don't feel like going through 14 pages looking for what you want me to respond to, type it or show me it and I'll give you a response...if that'll make you feel better LOL

This has nothing to do with me "feeling better." It has to do with determining whether you're just a troll or if you actually think you're right and you're trying to get people to understand. If the latter is the case, then please address arguments against your position, such as:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=1769029&postcount=37

 

[RickyJ]

Yeah I know that's why everyone still uses it right?

Everyone does not use it. Some will not even accept it anymore. Iran made Japan pay for oil in Yen recently.

 

[icon124]

This has nothing to do with me "feeling better." It has to do with determining whether you're just a troll or if you actually think you're right and you're trying to get people to understand. If the latter is the case, then please address arguments against your position, such as:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=1769029&postcount=37

Not sure what exactly you want me to respond about. I'm thinking the main difference is in the timing of a collapse, so that is what I will start with. If that isn't enough let me know and I'll respond to more specifics.

Our dollar isn't collapsing anytime soon, and that is plain and simple. Everyone has a vested interest in the dollar...and a huge one at that. Let's start with the oil industry since you seem to think they will be the first to start the collapse. The United States consumes 25% of the world's oil, and most of that consumption comes from the middle eastern oil obviously. Now with that in mind, do you really think they want to piss of America and stop pegging the dollar to oil? I don't really think that would be a good idea unless they want to suffer losses too. To make things worse the Euro is fiat too so why would they go to that if fiat money is the problem to begin with? I do see your logic behind wanting to dump dollars before it is to late, but I think it is to late to just dump dollars. Maybe once China or other nations start consuming more oil than America they may think about it, but no time soon.

I do agree that our policies will eventually run us into ruin, and we must change them if we ever want to get back to a sound economic system. At the same time the main reason no one gets rid of the dollar is because countries are already to dependant on the dollar. Because of this, there is a fear factor involved with dumping dollars. I think that fear factor is so huge everyone is scared to be the first to start the dumping.

Think about this...let's say the middle eastern countries start pegging oil to Euros because they decide to be the brave ones and start the avalanche. China would probably be the next to try and get rid of dollars, but as everyone starts running to dump dollars the ENTIRE global economy will be hit with huge losses. Who wants that? Who knows how long the effects of the losses will last, and how deep it will hit these countries. It may, for example, knock China 20-30 years back. I don't think any country wants to start this avalanche simply because they know it will cause a severe GLOBAL economic crisis. I mean just look at what this financial crisis is doing to the world. Now imagine China dumping dollars...that's huge.

The day will probably come, but considering that we still have one of the strongest mililtary, and our economic activity is so huge it effects the entire world, it won't be for a while. If the Fed can manage to keep the dollar from losing to much value during this crisis...which they will do by prolonging inflation...we will be okay...at least until the next big burst.

M2 is about 7,670 right now...and we are pumping about 1 trillion into the economy...that's a 13% inflation once it finally kicks in...but the fed also plans to suck money out of the system...which it is easily doing...just look at the Treasury market right now...at one point interest rates we're at 0.20% because everyone was demanding bonds (pushing up prices lowers yields). Everyone is scared of investing elsewhere so they will invest in the safest asset out there...and Government bonds are the safest regardless of what anyone on these forums believe...the proof is there...just go look...everyone is demanding government bonds.

If the fed can issue enough bonds to suck up even 500 billion of the 1 trillion that cuts the inflation in half. About 6%...and where are we right now with inflation...about 5.5%. Also, this crisis is also lowering prices too. If people aren't investing in Government bonds, their second choice is to simply hoard cash. When you hoard cash you increase the demand for dollars, which in turns increases the purchasing power of the dollar. Look at oil...it has dropped 50% since July...that is huge.

Bottom line...The fed will issue enough bonds to at least absorb half of what they print out of thin air...most people believe this recession isn't ending anytime soon...so you will see a lot of people investing in long term Government bonds...Bonds can be as short as 1 month and as long as 30 years. I'm saying the problem of issuing this money back to bond holders won't get to bad until about half way through...or 15-20 years from now. OF course this is just my esitmate just like your 10 year estimate is just your estimate...no one knows for sure, but the way other countries are already neck high in dollars, the economy being more global than ever in history because of technology, and our military power we won't see a collapse of our dollar anytime soon.

and to all of the people reading this and saying no the dollar is worthless...it has lost 95% of it's value, the government solves everything by printing dollars, numbers are scewed...that is true to a point. Back in 1940 did anyone think prices would be double or triple in 2008...I don't think so, but we've managed to still have an increase in living...regardless of the na-sayers. Technology has improved and my standard of living has increased drastically compared to someone in 1940. How do you know that in 2070 we won't have another doubling in prices, but a better standard or living?

How is it not possible to have a median salary of 100k in 2070. I mean in 1940 I'm sure the median salary wasn't even half of what it is now, but we still trust the dollar and it's still here.

Hundreds of you have lived decade to decade saying the samething, but for some magical reason the dollar is still here LOL. I've even read articles from the S&L crisis in the late 80's claiming the end of the dollar was here....what happened?


LIKE I SAID BEFORE...I'm a supporter of Austrian economics and believe in sound money...want a truely free market economy, but I'm also being a realist here...It's not happening anytime soon. All countries are on fiat systems now if I'm not mistaken...If one currency ever fails...where just going to start another fiat currency.