The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping

[RonRules]

@RonRules The output from the Java program has a file called "votes2012-CorrelationCoefficientsAndStdDevs.csv". What do the numbers in that file represent, and could you post links to a video telling me how to calculate those numbers, or if those are not really important to what we are doing then I might just leave out that function. Also, I think all I have left to do is make R spit out pretty looking charts.

Liberty1789 thought it was important to point out how straight the cumulative lines were. Program4Liberty hand coded a correlation coefficient and Std Deviation calculation in Java. Liberty1789 felt that it was highly unnatural (and a clue to fraud) for the lines to be so straight. He often calculated the correlation/std dev and added the numbers on the charts. I also did that for a few charts. I remember that the entire state of VA had a correlation slope of .993.

As you can see in the above NY chart, the line is not so straight and the correlations and Std dev calculated by the Java program are:

Santorum: -0.902983538
Gingrich: -0.583204951
Paul: -0.831071705
Romney: 0.939621774

Standard Deviations:
Santorum: 0.011651986
Gingrich: 0.00546811
Paul: 0.011088592
Romney: 0.024399177

These correlations are not as good as .993 like in VA, but still excellent. Most social scientists would agree to vote Republican for data like that.

All it means really, is that we have undeniably strong correlation between Romney's share of the vote and the arbitrary independent variable, precinct size. It just make the proof stronger for a statistician to appreciate.

 

[RonRules]

I still can't get over the only place I am hearing about any election fraud is on the Ron Paul Liberty Forest message board. Well here and on FOX with Ben Swann ...

Was the snake picture taken in America? It's got the head of a viper, it seems.

I want a solid support from Academia before contacting the media. I doubt they lurk here much and that's fine with me. On the other hand, if Ben wants to do this story, I'll do everything I can to help him out. He deserves it.

 

[drummergirl]

Was the snake picture taken in America? It's got the head of a viper, it seems.

That is a western diamondback rattlesnake (10ft 4in, 108lbs) taken by a friend of a friend in a neighboring county. The ag people have been saying for a couple of months that conditions are ideal for snakes this year, so I found the supporting evidence interesting.

 

[affa]

Does anyone see any other solution toward proof?

Proof is impossible in this day and age. If someone came forward with photographic evidence that they killed Kennedy, they'd be ridiculed as an attention hound by 25% of the people, ignored by 25%, believed by 25% of the people, and called a liar and a fake by the rest.

You say exit polls would 'prove' something, but they don't and they won't. When Ron Paul performs under polls, people just dismiss it. People are incredibly good at dismissing anything they don't want to believe true. And others are paid to.

 

[Pauling]

Wasn't Ben Swann taking a look at this a while back? What happened with that?

 

[RonRules]

THIS is the most important chart comparison I've ever made. Thanks to Octojofo for providing the WatchTheVote2012 data.

This is a chart made directly from the New Hampshire 2012 Pres Primary website:
http://sos.nh.gov/2012RepPresPrim.aspx (Use "Download in Excel Format")

Here's what I get: (The chart looks the same as Progra4Liberty's chart)

(Note that there's only 10 counties, so the chart is rough but the chart should include all votes, except for write-ins and very low vote count candidates)

Now, look at THIS:

That's straight from the WatchTheVote spreadsheet. You can download it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...9DUXFpRW80bnJEZU5CVlVET1liSlE&hl=en_US#gid=99

Watch the vote was only able to "watch" 79 out of the 126 precincts in New Hampshire. That's a damn shame, because the ones that they DID watch produce a flat-line chart.

Folks if that's not the smoking gun, I don't know what is. PLEASE do something about this!!!

 

[RonRules]

Octojofo entered the remaining 47 hand counted precincts from the individual county results. (They were all in pdf and it was a pain to convert them)
Those results can be found here:
http://sos.nh.gov/2012RepPresPrim.aspx?id=12943


You can download his complete spreadsheet data here:
https://www.yousendit.com/download/QlVpb3BDTk1GR0hWUThUQw


Now check this out. Here's the final result of the Watch The Vote plus the hand counted results reported by the state:

Any questions?!!!

 

[RonRules]

Wasn't Ben Swann taking a look at this a while back? What happened with that?

I never contacted Ben Swan and I don't know that anyone else has. He was interested very early on and we had very little data to offer.

It's best at this point to get support from academia before going to the media. But if Ben wants to run with this now, it's his choice.

 

[RonRules]

Riverside County will have to MANUALLY re-count all electronic votes after the electronic count. I believe that only applies to Direct Entry type machines. That re-count will start on June 7, 2012.

http://www.voteinfo.net/docs/NOTICE_100PercentTally.PDF

They also do a random 1% manual vote tally for all other votes:
http://www.voteinfo.net/docs/Notice_OnePercentTally.pdf

Some of their voting equipment was de-certified by the State:
WITHDRAWAL OF APPROVAL OF SEQUOIA VOTING SYSTEMS, INC.,
WINEDS V 3.1.012/AVC EDGE/INSIGHT/OPTECH 400-C DRE & OPTICAL SCAN VOTING SYSTEM

They were later re-certified with the following stipulation:
"Elections officials are required to conduct a 100% manual tally, by the process described in Elections Code section 15360, of the electronic results tabulated on each DRE machine in use on Election Day. Notice to the public of this manual
tally may be combined with the notice required by any other manual tally required in this order or by Elections Code section 15360."

Since I am now a Certified Poll Observer, I will be observing this re-count.

I would prefer all manual voting. The 1% sample is very small, particularly if large precincts are not going to be included because they are large.

 

[hosef]

So, for the first time in history someone is going to look at the receipts from the touch screen voting systems?!? How did you get them to agree to that one?

 

[The Man]

Octojofo entered the remaining 47 hand counted precincts from the individual county results. (They were all in pdf and it was a pain to convert them)
Those results can be found here:
http://sos.nh.gov/2012RepPresPrim.aspx?id=12943


You can download his complete spreadsheet data here:
https://www.yousendit.com/download/QlVpb3BDTk1GR0hWUThUQw


Now check this out. Here's the final result of the Watch The Vote plus the hand counted results reported by the state:

Any questions?!!!

This is explosive. Please explain/ link to more information on how thw WatchTheVote2012 data was gathered. Of all the incriminating evidence in the thousands of posts on this Site, this one may be worth staking a reputaion on.

 

[drummergirl]

Can you imagine the difference in the momentum, fundraising, and election coverage if the actual results had been reported on election night instead of the faked/flipped results? It's absolutely gut wrenching.

Octojofo entered the remaining 47 hand counted precincts from the individual county results. (They were all in pdf and it was a pain to convert them)
Those results can be found here:
http://sos.nh.gov/2012RepPresPrim.aspx?id=12943


You can download his complete spreadsheet data here:
https://www.yousendit.com/download/QlVpb3BDTk1GR0hWUThUQw


Now check this out. Here's the final result of the Watch The Vote plus the hand counted results reported by the state:

Any questions?!!!

 

[RonRules]

So, for the first time in history someone is going to look at the receipts from the touch screen voting systems?!? How did you get them to agree to that one?

I believe the credit goes to THIS guy: (Tom Courbat, who has made Riverside famous only second to Cayuhoga county Ohio for discovering election fraud) There are others that have worked hard too. I'm a newbie compared to these guys.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=4445
Tom is recovering from a serious illness that had him in the hospitals for weeks. I believe he's winding down his efforts on election fraud, but he's been at this for many years and definitely deserves a great 2nd retirement.

Tomorrow, I will be a poll watcher at the Registrar of Voters building in Riverside, home of the WinEDS Central Tabulator!

I'll be there all day from 6:30 AM till past midnight, so I won't be boring your with "explosive" charts.

It is my sincere hope that Riverside will be the only California county that will flat-line. I did everything I could to make that happen.

 

[octojofo]

This is explosive. Please explain/ link to more information on how the WatchTheVote2012 data was gathered. Of all the incriminating evidence in the thousands of posts on this Site, this one may be worth staking a reputation on.

I am so happy these results are as I had anticipated! (Thanks RonRules for getting them right up!)

The WatchTheVote2012 data is compiled by attending and witnessing the hand-count wherever we had bodies willing to go. In my case, I sat and took pictures and video of the counting process in Stratford, NH and as soon as I left, I (along with all the other poll-watchers in their respective towns) called in the figures witnessed, and those were used to update a WTV2012 google.docs page that I took the data from. I then added the NH official reported results to fill in the data from all the remaining hand count polling locations. It's unfortunate we could not get someone at every location but there you have it. (As it was, I drove 4 hours to get to Stratford, and again weeks later to watch in Maine, where unfortunately I could only watch, not record final figures!)

 

[octojofo]

Tomorrow, I will be a poll watcher at the Registrar of Voters building in Riverside, home of the WinEDS Central Tabulator!

I'll be there all day from 6:30 AM till past midnight, so I won't be boring your with "explosive" charts.

Well, I will definitely miss the charts!

Any chance you will be able to do any exit-polling? I still think this is important as it can make apparent any machine cheating...

btw folks, I'm still waiting for the iPhone version but there is a really spiffy exit-polling app for the Android out there!

 

[RonRules]

Here's a quickie of Maine 2012 using the Watch the Vote data before I go poll watching.

Here's the overall state chart that I had done months ago:

Here's the watch the vote data charted: (Ron's a flipper on the last point! Not really, there are only 15 data points here and this is just likely to be low sample count statistical variations.) However, the WatchTheVote chart is definitely not trending the same way as the state chart. I certainly think form these two charts, that the GOP/Romney was up to no good in Maine.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuO0mBQIbc6cdFltbWdTSnFFOG9va3VvUHVuR3QwTWc#gid=1

Octojofo or others, can you please round up ALL the Watch the Vote 2012 data and post the links. Thanks.

 

[RonRules]

(As it was, I drove 4 hours to get to Stratford, and again weeks later to watch in Maine, where unfortunately I could only watch, not record final figures!)

Why could you not record the final figures, were they counted in secret and reported straight to the GOP as Pastor McDonnall had been asked?

This is very serious stuff folks (not just for NH, ME or course). We now need FOLLOWUP! We can't just sit there and take this.

 

[RonRules]

That's where we're heading if we don't deal with this NOW:

Protests Turn Into Occupations Throughout Egypt

 

[RonRules]

I'm in the Belly of the Beast!!

Early this morning, I had a 1/2 hour meeting with the Registrar and her assistant. Voting was slow so we had plenty of time to talk. As an official Poll Observer, I got the VIP tour of their facilities, the vote handling process, counting and a visit in the central room where all the votes are counted and the lair of the WinEDS Central Tabulator.

In Riverside about 95% of all votes are paper votes that are scanned in centrally at the Registrar's office. Riverside is a large county, spanning most of the width of California. This evening, Sheriff deputies and helicopters (!) will be transporting the paper ballots from the 540 precincts all over the county. There's another nearly 300 "Vote By Mail" precincts, where groups of people are located that can only vote by mail. (I have a problem with that, but that's another story)

The Belly of the Beast is like a small factory assembly line with dozens of Optech-400C Central Count Scanners. There were stacks of ballots on some tables, so I was restricted as to what pictures I could take.

Here's one of the Optech-400C Central Count Scanners:

All these Optech-400C scanners are connected though a private (totally local) network to the central tabulator, which itself is made up of two machines. One the WinTtl collects the data from all the scanners and transfers it to the WinEDS machine, which is the actual computer where all the votes are added.

The WinEDS Central Tabulator is on the left. It's just a regular HP PC that runs that dreaded Central Tabulation software.

Here's the problem. Although almost all of Riverside votes are paper based, all votes are counted by machines, tallied by machines and summed up by machines. At no point in the process can there be an inspection of the intermediate steps. (I have asked and received all the files on the WinEDS machine and MAY be able to figure out a way to get the intermediate counts from each individual Optech 400C scanners)

Riverside has been ordered by the State of California to do a manual 1% count to confirm that the machines have done their job correctly. They will randomly pick 1% of the 800+ precincts in Riverside (minimum of 9 precincts) and count those manually. If local races are not part of those 9 precincts, other manual count precincts will be added. They will also manually count 100% of the 800 or so Direct Entry Machines.

This morning I managed to get the Registrar to agree that if all the precincts they pick happen to be small, they will add ONE manual count precinct that has at least 250 votes. Hopefully we will be able to catch the vote flipping that way.

I also got them to agree to make backup copies of the DRE machine memory cards BEFORE they are inserted in the Central Tabulator.

The Registrar and her assistant were very helpful to me and are genuinely concerned and trying to eradicate Vote Flipping. They were extremely careful with not allowing the Central Tabulator near an Internet connections and USB keys. They only communicate to it though virus proofed CD's. I am really hoping that with all these efforts that Riverside County will Flat Line! If all the other counties around it are flippers, we will have an even more solid case to open up a State-Wide investigation, led by the State Attorney General.

 

[RonRules]

Poll tapes from the 9 main DRE (Direct Entry) voting machines. I was able to flim the poll tape as it was printed, but it's pretty boring. The final result come up on the machine's screen at the end.

Here they are:

The absentee (Vote by Mail) results for Riverside County (not including the above machines) are:
Romney: 82.69%
Paul: 7.66%
Santorum: 4.62%
Gingrich: 4.13%
Roemer: 0.58%
Krager: 0.32%

It appears that the DRE machine results are not that different (eye ball eval only) than the absentee votes. I'd like to do that calculation, but I have to continue my job as a poll observer. Can someone do the math. Thanks.