The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping

[RonRules]

I am not that new to programming(by 'getting into it' I meant that I was trying to make money at it). I just wanted to get an idea of what you wanted it to do and what you might want it to do in the future. Also, From my work on an open source project called Drupal, I have had quite a lot of experience with people on the internet telling me about my own code.

OK that gives me a better idea of your skill level. Ultimately the purpose is to nail down the cause. We have not done that yet, as you know.

To find the cause, we need to analyze various states, counties, different years, different candidates, different parties, caucuses or primaries. We don't necessarily have to do ALL of it, but we need a wide variety of elections to analyze, all the while keeping track of what flips and what doesn't. We need to establish clear criteria to distinguish a flipped election and one that is not. We also need to correlate that with what kind of equipment is used for voting and tabulating the results.

This can only be done efficiently through automation and I think that the R statistical system could be at the center of that. Ideally the program would fetch the election data directly and upload the results to a website. Election data formats vary a lot, but many states use SOE software and those are all very consistent. We could start with those. AL, AZ, NC are some example. I think 26 states use SOE.

Program4Liberty's Java program helped me a lot. As soon as I get a properly formatted ".csv" file, I can produce a chart and post it in 10 minutes max. The problem is that nobody else seems to use it.

It's also important to analyze "deep", like Liberty1789 and The Man did in Alabama. I consider that their results are undeniable evidence and action needs to be taken.

Finding flat-lines is important too because you can find out why they got good results. So far I've discovered that it's related to counties that don't use central tabulators.

Another effort would be to do software forensics on a Central Tabulator, with the assistance of an election county clerk. If people reading this have such connections and have to technical knowledge to investigate a compromised computer, that could very well be the quickest way to find the cause.

I see that Drupal is a content management system. Maybe it would be great to use it to host all the various data and charts we have. An interface between R and Drupal, if possible would be great to have.

If we are successful, I see such a fraud detection system to be mandatory and run on all elections. It's totally baffling that such obvious discrepancies have been missed or ignored for decades. We have what appears to be clear flipping dating back many years.

 

[RonRules]

First TEXAS chart!

Because elections are coming up fairly shortly, I thought I'd do a quick overall analysis of the entire state. (Does TX really have 254 counties?!!)

Looks like a flat liner, but we should check individual counties to be sure. Romney was down in the noise by that time since he had pulled out:

Data source:
http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist.exe

Their election results page looks homebrew. That's a good thing.

Can anybody brief me on what type of equipment they use, especially the central tabulator? Please tell me that it's a Hart Inter-civics, all USA made in Austin TX. That's the only central tabulator that I've seen flat line so far (Lancaster, PA).



Edit: Travis County, home of Austin TX, the Capital ONLY uses Hart equipment!
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/forms/sysexam/voting-sys-bycounty.pdf

TRAVIS
DRE Hart eSlate 4.1.3
Optical Scan Hart Ballot Now Scanner 0
Other Hart Judges Booth Controller (JBC) 4.1.3
Software Hart Ballot Now 3.2.4
Software Hart BOSS 4.2.13
Software Hart eCM 1.1.7
Software Hart SERVO 4.1.6
Software Hart Tally 4.2.8

 

[drummergirl]

First TEXAS chart!

Because elections are coming up fairly shortly, I thought I'd do a quick overall analysis of the entire state. (Does TX really have 254 counties?!!)

Looks like a flat liner, but we should check individual counties to be sure. Romney was down in the noise by that time since he had pulled out:

now that is some good news!

I'm traveling for a few days, so only on sporadically; welcome hosef

 

[dr.k.research]

First TEXAS chart! Travis County, home of Austin TX, the Capital ONLY uses Hart equipment

This is exceedingly important. We have a chance to see what are the real Paul numbers, here. This is especially true by combining getting out the vote WITH exit polling and grass-roots certification (through www.ronpaulvotecount.org).

I will work with grass-roots to ensure our own counting in some of the Travis county precincts. Any volunteers out there willing to help?

See this, also, where there is a huge focus on direct mail campaign for Travis County: http://www.dailypaul.com/232729/if-...ho-never-did-before-we-win-the-lotto-get-1500

 

[RonRules]

Let's talk about North Carolina. There's quite a bit to say.

First this: Bribery of a North Carolina Election Director

What Happened:
•Conviction and Prison time for that Official - Bill Culp.
•Guilty Plea to Bribery charges for the Microvote Salesman - Ed O'Day.
•Salesman still selling voting machines today, and is Vice President of United American Election Supply.
•Insufficient Laws, North Carolina laws do not prohibit Ed O'Day from selling voting machines to the counties in NC, just from selling directly to the State of NC for a 10 year period.
•Defective Machines - 400 of the Microvote DREs sold to Mecklenberg County were already known to be defective, were the source of a lawsuit between Microvote and the state of Pennsylvania. Pennsyvania refused to buy the machines, or at least not all that Microvote tried to sell them, and Microvote sued. Microvote lost the suit. The machines malfunctioned after North Carolina bought them (some were sold to Indiana too). But since our election director was taking bribes, he couldn't say much.

Meet Ed O'Day, Voting Machine Salesman Extraordinaire:

He bribed a North Carolina County Election Director, entered a guilty pleas for bribes in 1998, and in 2004 he is sponsoring a hospitality room for Georgia State Election Officials!

That should be of great concern to voting activists. Wouldn't a clean criminal background be important for Executives that influence State Election Officials?

1. This all came to a head in 1998:

A voting machine salesman and repairman admitted earlier this week that they gave Culp more than $134,000 since 1990 in bribes and kickbacks as rewards for county business. Ed O'Day, 63, of Columbia, S.C., and Gene Barnes, 64, of Stuarts Draft, Va., entered guilty pleas Tuesday.

They and Culp will be sentenced later this summer, the U.S. Attorney's Office said.

Culp pleaded guilty to accepting 122 bribes from O'Day and Barnes and to three counts of mail fraud stemming from his operation of the Mecklenburg Elections Tabulation Service, which provided news organizations with unofficial election night results. He allegedly double-billed the county and news outlets, pocketing $21,131 between December 1994, and January 1998.

O'Day is president of United American Election Supply Co. and was also an independent sales representative for MicroVote of Indianapolis. He sold Mecklenburg County more than $6 million in voting machines since 1994.

Barnes, who serviced the county's voting machines for more than 30 years, raised his prices so Culp could get a kickback of $25 per machine repaired, authorities alleged.

We'll get back to Mecklenburg in a little while.

 

[RonRules]

Let's look at North Carolina's elections from a few days ago.

I posted a chart from NC on elections night that looked liked it totally flat lined. (See Post #696) Note that not ALL the data was in. Some people told me that the election night returns looked strange as the evening was developing so I decided to analyze individual counties and found several flippers.

Now that all 100% of data in I re-did the State chart again and notied that although, it looks pretty good, but it's not exactly as flat as last time:

Even though this looks very flat, there is a problem.

 

[RonRules]

Here's why:

The three largest counties in NC are: Mecklenburg County, Wake County and Guilford County. The 4-5 top counties contributed to more than 50% of the votes and their results were quite similar.

That's what made the State chart look flat.

Guilford: Romney 69.76%
Mekelenburg: Romney: 67.86%
Wake county: Romney: 65.22%

Here's a straight precinct count tally chart (Not cumulative). As you can see the largest counties (on the right) take up most of the cumulation and have similar results for Romney.

On the left of the chart, you can see an upslope through the noise indicating that there's quite a bit of flipping on the smaller counties, as a function of precinct size.

Because those results are very similar, this makes the cumulative line look straight. But underneath there's quite a bit of flipping!

Data source:
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/36596/80862/en/pr.html

 

[RonRules]

Looking at Guilford, Mekelenburg and Wake county by themselves, we see quite a bit of Vote Flipping underneath it all:

Mekelenburg is the worse offender in all 100 NC counties. I wonder if Ed O'Day, Voting Machine Salesman Extraordinaire had anything to do with this.

That's why it's important to dive deep in this stuff. There's always fraud to be found.

 

[RonRules]

These charts show the variation of what was found in the 31 counties I analyzed:

Clearly flipping

Clearly not:

Someone asked me for Roebeson:

The rest are here:
http://s269.photobucket.com/albums/jj80/RonRules/Elections2012_Primaries_NC/?start=all

 

[RonRules]

I noticed that Rockingham county, NC had all 4 candidates around 20-35% with 6.5% reporting in and at 100% reporting it's 65/10/10/9. Might that be a case of flipping?

Here's the chart: (You may have seen Ron, Santorum, Gingrich with the same values but missed Romney)

 

[RonRules]

In North Carolina, Liberty lover Glen Bradley's should have come in in second place.

If you know him, can you please send him this chart and tell him to contact me. Scrhiver totally stole votes from him and Barefoot. This is serious stuff.

 

[RonRules]

I'll be doing a presentation this weekend and most likely the subject of demographics will come up.

My audience will be Californians, so here's some comparisons of the 2008 Republican votes with key demographics for all counties in California.

Here's all of the State of California in 2008:

In my analysis, I noticed that a lot of smaller counties were NOT flipped. This largely explains Romney's curve trace shape on the left part of the chart.
All charts are here if you want to see them:
http://s269.photobucket.com/albums/jj80/RonRules/Elections2008_Primaries_CA/?start=all

Compare that with key demographics. Note that black poor have similar shape to Romney's results! Have I made a big discovery that Romney has secret support among poor blacks?

As Freud said: "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar".

The demographics data source is from here:
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/data_documentation/data_via_ftp/

 

[RonRules]

California counties vary in size greatly, so I represented the chart's x-axis on a log scale.

Alpine county only has 1,175 people and Los Angeles county has 37,253,956. That's a huge difference that is not well shown on a linear scale.

This new chart is showing the exact same data, but represents the wide range in county sizes better.

It also shows interestingly that black poverty % increases in larger counties. In other words, there's much less poor blacks in rural areas compared to the rest of poor people. (This could indicate the failure of large social programs in big cities)

Note that these are the most extreme demographics I can find. Don't jump to conclusions that one line is not horizontal!

(For some reason I could not get the third line (Per-Capita average) to follow the log scale below. It has to do with the fact that the data is plotted on two different vertical axis.)

 

[RonRules]

While we're on the subject of North Carolina, James O'Keefe (VeritasVisuals) has a new Voter Fraud video:

 

[RonRules]

Here's a much shorter video from North Carolina. It's simply amazing that considering the theathrics that O'Keefe puts on, the precinct workers are practically begging him to vote!



Texas analysis coming up next.

 

[RonRules]

Loving County, Texas, http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/hcl13

1 Cafe, 1 Gas Station, 2 Roads: America's Emptiest County
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/25/national/25loving.html?8hpib

http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/hcl13

Should I bother analyzing?

If we want Ron Paul to win ONE county in Texas, I suggest this one.

 

[hosef]

Ok, so I have been looking into R and have had a surprisingly easy time learning it. The way they deal with the data was confusing for a while, because it is very different from a traditional programming language. I have also found that there seems to be a function to do anything. I write out 15-20 lines of code to do something, and then later come back and replace it with a 1 line R function that I found.

RonRules, I think the math for computing the cumulative totals and percentages should be easy(~30 lines of R or less). The part I am having the hardest time with is rearranging the data before I do the math. If the data for TX or CA is fairly standard then it might help me to see some of the .csv files from those 2 states.

Unfortunately, I have not been able to spend as much time working on this as I would have liked.

 

[drummergirl]

Unfortunately, I have not been able to spend as much time working on this as I would have liked.

All of us here are just doing the best we can with the time we have.

I just got home from a trip myself. I'm glad to be getting back to this.

 

[drummergirl]

Unfortunately, they do not have a republican primary; only a democrat one.

Loving County, Texas, http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/hcl13

1 Cafe, 1 Gas Station, 2 Roads: America's Emptiest County
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/25/national/25loving.html?8hpib

http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/hcl13

Should I bother analyzing?

If we want Ron Paul to win ONE county in Texas, I suggest this one.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

In North Carolina, Liberty lover Glen Bradley's should have come in in second place.

If you know him, can you please send him this chart and tell him to contact me. Scrhiver totally stole votes from him and Barefoot. This is serious stuff.

I'm not sure how you are getting the X-axis on these charts. Where does count-over-time come from?

Other problem is even if this is 100% perfectly valid, I do not know what can be done or what it would change. If it won't change the outcome wouldn't I be wasting $100k of taxpayer money to demand a recount and just look like "sour grapes" damaging any future effort to gain elective office?

Something like this, if true, should probably be brought by a 3rd party. Perhaps some unknown "Citizens for Fair Elections" could step up and say "It won't change the outcome, but an anomaly demands transparency" for the sake of future electoral integrity.

I dunno, this is all new to me.