The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping

[economics102]

Thanks for dropping by.

It's all pretty easy. If the lines are not horizontal (with a little bit of wiggling on the left), then it's ELECTION FRAUD.

The flippers slope up, the flippees slope down.

BTW economics102, Austrian or Kensyian?

Thanks for the simple explanation!

The story behind my alias is basically one of those "I thought I was being clever but later realized it didn't make any sense" stories. Now I'm stuck with it!

 

[dr.k.research]

And so is Wake county. (That was a very strong flipper back in 2008)

Excellanto!! This goes along very well with what activists are saying on the ground, including poll watchers and canvassers, that the results CANNOT be correct. Let's us research as much as possible to find other evidence of fraud in NC

WV is important, too. There is a city, Huntington, where the ClearChannel host frequently promoted Dr. Paul. He had Rand Paul on his highly popular show. I promoted the good doctor several times there over the years. All precincts in this region must be extensively analyzed. Showing only 11,600 votes in the entire state for Paul should help. Affidavits, anyone? www.ronpaulvotecount.org

 

[Jingles]

Can someone please summarize this for me? I really don't feel like reading a 70something page long thread to know what I'm dealing with this here. Is this basically some kind of conspiracy in regards to if you vote more for one the votes to another or something?

 

[RonRules]

Can someone please summarize this for me? I really don't feel like reading a 70something page long thread to know what I'm dealing with this here. Is this basically some kind of conspiracy in regards to if you vote more for one the votes to another or something?

Since you're from Virginia, here's a real quick way to explain this.

Go to your Virginia State Board of Elections website:

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia....C02-4DED-AB71-09E34ED36339/Official/1_s.shtml

Click on Votes by county/city:
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia...._A5DCD6FA-6694-4931-BBDB-D87E4356EC47_s.shtml

Click on "RICHMOND CITY"
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia....60_A5DCD6FA-6694-4931-BBDB-D87E4356EC47.shtml

Look carefully and note how much better Romney does in the precincts with more votes total. Do you find this strange?

Precinct size has essentially no relation to candidate popularity. It's a totally independent variable with nearly zero correlation to vote results.

This is happening in just about every single precinct, county and state in the Union.

If you chart the above data you get this:

This above chart was so incredible that another flipper analyst did not believe it. He did the chart himself to confirm:

In every single case of vote flipping, in every precinct, county, state the probability of such results happening by luck is infinitesimally small, sometimes exceeding the capacity of computers to represent such small numbers.

If you don't believe what I just said, use the data and charts I have just shown you and take them to a statistician.

I hope you're hooked now.

 

[drummergirl]

Can someone please summarize this for me? I really don't feel like reading a 70something page long thread to know what I'm dealing with this here. Is this basically some kind of conspiracy in regards to if you vote more for one the votes to another or something?

the basic idea of vote flipping is you take a certain percentage of your opponent's votes and make them yours.

for instance, if an actual precinct vote total was Romney 100, Paul 100, but Romney is flipped and extra 10% the reported results would be Romney 110, Paul 90.

These are much shorter than the threads.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nycaPPtpBCyc1DOt9ybWT1tnOXeczMHav3nfdkBzdBw/edit

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EokVx9tDsrjAJ-7H9XoPv3KmZYDvVjSFJ4cuxJTo1iE/edit?pli=1

 

[RonRules]

I've completed all of California 2008. About 1/2 are flippers but I have not yet established if it's due to size or the use of Central Tabulators or not:

Here's some more interesting ones:

Truly bizarre:

There's a few close kissers like this one:

I count 39 out of 58 counties flipping favorably for Romney. The others are flat or bumpy lines.

 

[RonRules]

Napa county, rich wine regions was exceptionally flat:

Gotta give them a call tomorrow.

 

[MelissaCato]

How did you make out with the info I sent ya?

 

[rb3b3]

well we are fucked then, because no matter how hard we bust our ass to win ca, the flipper was there in 2008, i am sure it will return in 2012 !!!!!! god dam it!!!!!!!! SOMEONE FUCKN DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS SHIT !!!!!!!!!!!!! INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT IT EVERYDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DO SOMETHING WITH IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[RonRules]

well we are fucked then, because no matter how hard we bust our ass to win ca, the flipper was there in 2008, i am sure it will return in 2012 !!!!!! god dam it!!!!!!!! SOMEONE FUCKN DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS SHIT !!!!!!!!!!!!! INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT IT EVERYDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DO SOMETHING WITH IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, and that's why this discovery is so huge. It also shows a terrible problem with Republican party unity back in 2008, where by that time McCain was essentially the "Presumptive Nominee", yet Romney was trying to steal the election from under him. I have also made other discoveries in California that are equally shocking. I have more analysis to do to prove it. Note that we still don't know WHO is causing this, so we need more analysis and discussion.

But I do get encouraged when people "see" the problem.

Although I personally put a lot of charts in this thread, there's also a fair bit of background work that goes on. We also need a LOT more people to help and that includes you. If you have a certain skill that could help such as formalizing the proof, writing letters, making calls, by all means, please do.

We have drafted a letter that will go to all the California counties to alert the election registrars and clerks of the problem and how to prevent it. That should go out in two or three days. It's pretty urgent.

Some election officials have been served papers by a process server for their failure to provide basic election information. That costs money.

I met and exchanged about a dozen e-mails with Riverside elections officials. I suggest you bring our data to your own county election officials.

I have personally met twice with a person from the main campaign, who tours with Ron Paul himself. This person has the right credentials (math degree, for one) and can understand the problem and act on it. The campaign, through this person now has a well structured 3GB database describing this fraud as well as all the various reports that we have produced.

We also have two people from other counties that have provided substantial help in terms of making phone calls and collecting information.

We need to contact more members of academia. These people are busy and it will take a while before we find someone that's willing to drop their current research and tackle this rather large problem. Most likely they will need funding.

The UCR Statistical Consulting Collaboratory (collaboratory.ucr.edu, see video on main page) would love to help but they also love to get paid. They proposed to do a large multi-variate study that will eclipse any doubt opponents would claim. If you have money and want to see a formal scientific paper written, please call their office at 951-827-7939. Their On-Campus Rate is $62/hour.

How Can You Help:
http://collaboratory.ucr.edu/gift.html

Gift Student stipend:
$30: 1-day of work in the Collaboratory
$150: 1-week of work in the Collaboratory
$1500: 1 full quarter of work in the Collaboratory
$4500: A full year of work in the Collaboratory
All gifts are greatly appreciated!

So as you can see, we are not just "talking" about it.

 

[RonRules]

How did you make out with the info I sent ya?

The upload to the picture sharing site reduced the resolution of the images, which caused several items to be nearly unreadable. That's why I had asked for the original pictures by e-mail. Also, because the official numbers have not yet been released, we won't be able to do anything "official" with your data just yet.

But I thank you for all the effort you put into this and I encourage everyone to do their part like Melissa did.

 

[RonRules]

Just got a call from Rhode Island's election IT manager. He just gave me some fresh bait.

I'll chomp on that and eventually come back to NC, CA and MA 2002's Governor's race. You know who won that right?


With respect to statistical professors willing to write scientific papers on the subject, please call their office at 951-827-7939. The rate is $62/hour.

Until someone pony's up the money, you'll just have to content yourselves with the 4-5 free volunteers on this thread.

 

[RonRules]

Rhode Island is as bad as it gets:

Currently working on the delegates. The're a ton of those and plenty of nice data.

Data source (Long Format)
http://www.ri.gov/election/results/2012/presidential_preference_primary/data/

 

[devil21]

Im glad you found the Mecklenburg data useful RonRules.

Something else you may want to cross reference is the results on the gay marriage amendment that passed in this state. Only 8 counties total voted against the amendment while the rest voted for and the results were very lopsided. IIRC, Wake and Mecklenburg (urban areas) voted against. Of course this was voted by more than just Republicans and Indys but comparing the GOP primary results to the marriage amendment votes could give some insight into whether flipping actually occured. I don't suspect the amendment tally was tampered with. Just a thought.

 

[RonRules]

These are the Rhode Island District 1 (of 2) delegates that were voted for on May 2, 2012.

Note that there is a "Lynda ADAMS-ROBITAILLE (ROMNEY delegate)" and a "John F. ROBITAILLE (ROMNEY delegate)" on the chart. The legend makes them look identical, but if you look carefully, one is a "j" and the other is an "L".

What is instructive here is that the candidate flips, but not the delegates.

Demographic arguments would fail to explain why the candidate flips, but not the delegates.

Clearly Houston, we have a problem with the American 2012 elections

 

[jct74]

In case anyone is wondering where their posts went, a bunch of posts were moved to the "no fraud" thread.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...-Against-Algorithmic-Vote-Flipping-(no-fraud)

Please stay out of this thread unless you have something productive to contribute. If you want to criticize the project, do it in one of the "no fraud" threads linked in the OP. This set up isn't perfect but it was the solution agreed upon by the admins/mods to the heated arguments and disruptions that were occurring in earlier threads about this topic that were distracting from the work that was trying to be done. It is a practice that has been adopted by the admins in the past to avoid these type of problems on grassroots projects. If you don't like the way this has been set up, there is also a thread about it in Forum Feedback where you can voice your concerns.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...Grassroots-Central-with-no-opposition-allowed

 

[Barrex]

Just got a call from Rhode Island's election IT manager. He just gave me some fresh bait.

I'll chomp on that and eventually come back to NC, CA and MA 2002's Governor's race. You know who won that right?


With respect to statistical professors willing to write scientific papers on the subject, please call their office at 951-827-7939. The rate is $62/hour.

Until someone pony's up the money, you'll just have to content yourselves with the 4-5 free volunteers on this thread.

How many hours would be needed?

Start a chip-in?

 

[RonRules]

How many hours would be needed?

Start a chip-in?

I've personally been on this about 560 hours. That's $34K. I think we'll have trouble raising something like that, but a few thousands could at least confirm the work that's been done currently.

 

[drummergirl]

It depends on what you want them to look at. We have way more data than 5 people can look at in 2 months of part time and there is more data every week with additional primaries. That doesn't include historical data either.

I'd say ballpark, you'd need about $40,000 to get going.

How many hours would be needed?

Start a chip-in?

 

[Barrex]

I've personally been on this about 560 hours. That's $34K. I think we'll have trouble raising something like that, but a few thousands could at least confirm the work that's been done currently.

Not realistic to get that amount of money....on the other hand you guys/girls/people (with all due respect) dont seem to move from the spot (are not going to deliver killing blow)....Maybe try to find newspaper to finance it instead with promise to get exclusive or something like that...