The big thread full of stock picks

[fatjohn]

This is the thread in which you can discuss your latest buys and your reasoning behind why you think they will excell and try to defend your reasoning in a good old discussion.

First up, my latest buy: Blackberry

Yes I think bright days are back for this relic of the past. Blackberry has tumbled from a high of 140 something in 2007ish to a recent low of 8 CAD. Now trading at 12,47 it has broken out of a trading range after posting a result beat in the last quarter.

Three things I like about the company:

- A new man in charge with a background of turning has-beens around.
- they ditched their unspoken rule of having all phones using the blackberry's own Operating System and have recently unveiled an Android phone.
- three they are very well positioned to reap benefits from the internet of things as they have started out as a software company and still are very capable in that domain. Their software revenue is also rapidly rising with triple digit percentage figures yoy.
- i know this makes four but they have a decent pile of cash vs their market cap.

I hope we'll see 30 plus within two years.

 

[Krugminator2]

Maxlinear (MXL)trading at 15.45
Semiconductor stock founded 2003 by former Broadcom employees. IPO'd 2010

Pros:
Big earnings surprise .40 EPS last quarter. Guided up on Rev. which would put this qtrs earnings above .40
Forward PE at around 10
Low/no debt. Plenty of cash where dilution isn't a risk
Super high margin business over 50%
Soros and Royce major shareholders
Lean operation. Employees complain on internet about sharing cubes benefits, yet company still attracts top people. Long hours. Acquired another company and had no problem firing redundant employees

Cons:
Not a lot of analyst or investor enthusiasm now or when the company went public. All time high was right when it went public at $19
A lot of stock options outstanding. Seem a little too interested in the stock price. No insider buys. Some converting options
Huge earnings and sales growth in large part due to an acquisition. Tends to be sketchier and harder to decipher accounting on revenue recognition

 

[Matt Collins]

Buying individual stocks is nothing more than speculation (gambling)... the current price already contains all of the known information about the company. Even most people inside the company don't understand where their company is in relation to the market so the idea that one has special insight or knowledge is nonsense.


I mean yes some people day trade and make educated guesses, but in the end it is unlikely to be as successful as a long term strategy.



The best bet is to buy long-term investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.

 

[The Northbreather]

investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.

Please explain

 

[dusman]

O'Reilly Automotives: ORLY

Compare to AutoZone and also their performance through the recession. They have a competitive advantage over AutoZone as well that allows them to deliver parts on order to the stores faster than AutoZone can. They also have a lot of market penetration to make, as they don't have distribution centers that cover the entire U.S. last I checked.

 

[fatjohn]

Keep it coming!

MXL seems interesting, i looked at the P/e of competitors and its quite varying. 15 for intel, 20 for broadcom and high 20's for nvidia. Do you know why these large differences? Well at least MXL looks cheap compared to them.

About O'reilly automotives. I think the best might be over no? Times five in five years and a P/E of 29. This makes me cautious to jump in but hey if you already hold it try and ride the momentum till the end.

I'll throw in another one that I am contemplating.

Satellite operator SES:

Pro's:

Biggest dog on the block and close competitor Intelsat likely to go bankrupt due to excessive debt leaving behind a 20%+ hole in the market to be filled up.
Pushing the edge technology wise, the first to take the risk to ride on new cheaper rockets like SpaceX's Falcon series, the first to try out electrical propulsion for their satellites.
Owns 45% and have said to become majority owner of O3b, the first low latency satellite internet provider. This daughter company is really on fire providing internet to cruise ships, island nations and the navy.
Stock is at a two year low after havin fallen 20+ percent from its high.
Oh and for you americans, the euro.

Negatives:

The big one. Main business is providing satellites for satellite TV. This could get crushed by netflix and amazon prime in the coming decade. Main geography is Europe though which is always a bit behind the curve on internet applications. This really irks me a bit.

 

[fatjohn]

Buying individual stocks is nothing more than speculation (gambling)... the current price already contains all of the known information about the company. Even most people inside the company don't understand where their company is in relation to the market so the idea that one has special insight or knowledge is nonsense.


I mean yes some people day trade and make educated guesses, but in the end it is unlikely to be as successful as a long term strategy.



The best bet is to buy long-term investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.

Tell that to buffet, or any rich person for that matter.

 

[H. E. Panqui]

Tell that to buffet, or any rich person for that matter.


(yeah, and try telling any mega-buck$ lootery winner that 'buying stock' in the lootery was a poor choice!.....)

 

[Dforkus]

Buying individual stocks is nothing more than speculation (gambling)... the current price already contains all of the known information about the company. Even most people inside the company don't understand where their company is in relation to the market so the idea that one has special insight or knowledge is nonsense.

This is largely true, especially for us average schnooks.. This is why the majority of my equity investments are in in index funds..

The best bet is to buy long-term investments in things that move in dissimilar motions and you will get an average of 14% per year if it is done correctly.

There is no formula for getting a reliable 14%apr.. Broad market index funds, with dividend re-investment have gotten you, historically, something in the neighborhood of 8, with a large standard dev...

The blackberry call is interesting.. Definitely not the sexy pic in this day in age.

 

[Matt Collins]

Tell that to buffet, or any rich person for that matter.

They take extraordinarily high risks, or are well connected and have inside knowledge. Super wealthy have very different investment opportunities than everyone else.

 

[Dforkus]

They take extraordinarily high risks, or are well connected and have inside knowledge. Super wealthy have very different investment opportunities than everyone else.

Inside knowledge, research teams, etc..
It's tough on the ego, but the average investor is better off dollar cost averaging and indexing...
You are never as smart as you think you are...

I do still dabble in individual stocks and commodities, more as a hobby than anything else...

 

[Matt Collins]

This is largely true, especially for us average schnooks.. This is why the majority of my equity investments are in in index funds..


There is no formula for getting a reliable 14%apr.. Broad market index funds, with dividend re-investment have gotten you, historically, something in the neighborhood of 8, with a large standard dev...

The following mix from 1973-2007 has given a 14.4% annualized average rate of return (dev of 17.7):

5% cash
7.5% large US stocks
15% large US value stocks
15% small US stocks
12.5% small US value stocks
15.75% large international stocks
29.25% small international stocks

 

[The Northbreather]

The following mix from 1973-2007 has given a 14.4% annualized average rate of return (dev of 17.7):

5% cash
7.5% large US stocks
15% large US value stocks
15% small US stocks
12.5% small US value stocks
15.75% large international stocks
29.25% small international stocks

Nice.

Can I get a source Matt?

 

[Leaning Libertarian]

Other than Rand Paul, is there any candidate on either side of the aisle, who isn't calling for war. I would suspect leading up to the next election, the safer bets of market pics would be:

Lockheed Martin Corporation
The Boeing Company
Raytheon Company
General Dynamics Corporation
Bechtel Group Inc.

Each of these companies maintain government contracts, and would greatly profit from war.

 

[oyarde]

i charge for stock picks .

 

[TheNewYorker]

I invest in penny stocks. So far I've gained -$1278.00 in the last 3 years

 

[Schifference]

I invest in penny stocks. So far I've gained -$1278.00 in the last 3 years

TKOI might be of interest to you.

 

[Matt Collins]

Nice.

Can I get a source Matt?

His book..... listen to his radio show, he is exceptionally brilliant:


http://www.paulwinkler.net/

 

[Root]

I bought some Ruger (RGR) a few weeks ago after some shooting. It's gone up 10% since then.

 

[presence]

BUY and HOLD conditions not companies.

The daily 10/90

Z=1.0 # range 0.5 to 2.0 works best for most

pick any stock, any forex, pork bellies...

if the 10*Z period simple moving average on daily candles crosses above 90*Z daily sma, then invest.
if the 10*Z period simple moving average on daily candles crosses below 90*Z daily sma, then divest.


EVERY asset/asset, asset/currency, currency/currency pair has an optimized Z relative to its historical performance. For EVERY pair you can find a Z that has beaten buy and hold. EVERY ONE.

For any pair that Z is changing slowly over time; usually getting slightly bigger but in log(x) fashion; but also somewhat cyclic sin(x)/x. Take from that take: Z changes over time; but slowly.

Step 1) find something you think you should buy and hold
Step 2) <<< most people miss this step >>> Find the optimized Z for your security.

A very wise and rich man once told me: "BUY, HOLD; but SELL when it gets vertical."

Stick to the program place orders on the day of the Z * 10/90 cross, read: Not 2 weeks later when you realize the cross was right and price has already moved. Sometimes the algo will win, sometimes it will lose. Every few months re optimize Z. Make no other trades.

but just like picking good companies each year... picking good conditions each time means ultimately:

WIN.

Now you're a quant.

The big boys pay quants big money to manage hedge funds because quants are winners.

Why?

because buy and hold solid companies that move up or down 10 percent annually = 1.10X max at the end of the year.

buy and hold solid conditions that move up or down 2% every week = 1.02^52 = 2.8X max at the end of the year

If you think you can pick good stocks to hold,
I want you to see that you can just as easily pick good conditions to hold.


luck = random 1 or -1

skill = range 0 to 1

crudely:

ROI_good_stock_pick = 100*(1+(luck+skill)*1.1^1)

or

ROI_ good_condition_pick = 100*(1+(luck+skill)*1.1^trades_per_year)






If you're a quant that wants even less drawdown than buy and hold and even less than the simple 90/10 cross, then you learn


if:
elif:
else:


disclosure: I'm a freelance quant managing cryptocurrency by algo for about 40 individuals. about half with 50k usd equity limits and half with 5k limits; 2 additional users unlimited. I charge 1 btc annually for my 5k black box service which sends signals on average every 10 days. We're just over 2.3X usd terms; 1.75X btc for 2015. I post all my trades shortly after they occur at tradewave.net and the litepresence report here at rpf. Details: http://i.imgur.com/sB3KbJU.png http://pastebin.com/VLkKUniQ [email protected]