The Betting Market Odds 2024 Election

[Swordsmyth]

 

[TheCount]

Because when you're wrong, you just paid a crap-ton of money to your political adversary. That's how you end up paying your enemies to defeat you.

What do you consider paying hundreds of millions of dollars to the media?

 

[Snowball]

Trump is now a 2-1 favorite
He is laying -155 in PA.

 

[PAF]

Trump is now a 2-1 favorite
He is laying -155 in PA.

With all the "free" sh|t he promises to hand out, is it any wonder.

 

[Snowball]

With all the "free" sh|t he promises to hand out, is it any wonder.

It's risen too far. Bookies often raise steam to draw bets.

This election is still up in the air.

 

[PAF]

It's risen too far. Bookies often raise steam to draw bets.

This election is still up in the air.

Once the Pharmaceutical and Military Industrial Complexes get wind of his Agenda47, and all of the crap that both "republicans" and democrats alike will get for "FREE", he's got it in the bag.

Look at the consensus on this very RPF, for example. Trump is handing out more free stuff than even Biden did the last 4 years.

 

[Snowball]

Once the Pharmaceutical and Military Industrial Complexes get wind of his Agenda47, and all of the crap that both "republicans" and democrats alike will get for "FREE", he's got it in the bag.

Look at the consensus on this very RPF, for example. Trump is handing out more free stuff than even Biden did the last 4 years.

What's the difference between a blonde whore and a brunette whore?

 

[PAF]

What's the difference between a blonde whore and a brunette whore?

The cheaper one is... easier on my pocket book? lol

 

[Snowball]

The cheaper one is... easier on my pocket book? lol

the blonde is last week's brunette and the brunette was blonde last time you paid her.

 

[PAF]

the blonde is last week's brunette and the brunette was a blonde last week.

You nailed it %

 

[Snowball]

You nailed it %

they have a crafty hairdresser...

the parting on the left is now a parting on the right

 

[ClaytonB]

What do you consider paying hundreds of millions of dollars to the media?

For the Democrats, it's a balance-transfer from one checking account to the other, aka any given Tuesday...

 

[TheCount]

For the Democrats, it's a balance-transfer from one checking account to the other, aka any given Tuesday...

If Republican campaign spending is giving money to their adversaries, why not bet a bunch of money to get the free media off the betting odds?

It's no different than spending money on publishing fake polls that say you're in the lead

 

[ClaytonB]

If Republican campaign spending is giving money to their adversaries, why not bet a bunch of money to get the free media off the betting odds?

It's no different than spending money on publishing fake polls that say you're in the lead

You've lost the plot.

Let's say the real odds of Trump-v-Harris are 55-Harris/45-Trump. Betting $1m on Trump is like taking a 10% chance (by abuse of notation) of donating most of that money to Harris supporters (not necessarily her campaign) since we can safely suppose that many of those betting on Harris are doing so because they believe in her, not necessarily because they have any kind of inside info beyond what is in the polls. And vice-versa. Thus, the problem of "betting market manipulation" is self-solving since the attempted manipulators will just end up donating their money to non-idiot, rational bettors over the course of a relatively short period of time.

I thought you were smart enough to figure that out.

 

[unknown]

Polls can be spinning to lie like in 2016, odds to make real money don't lie they can't afford too.

https://polymarket.com/elections

And only 2 months ago Harris was actually winning this too, now look at this, as people are actually voting early.

It's over unless there is massive cheating, worse than 2020.

For some reason, the above link keeps taking me to Play Store.

This one seems to work:


https://polymarket.com/

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

 

[Matt Collins]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vLC5aEqJtk

 

[Matt Collins]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkeFKxnGw8M

 

[TheCount]

You've lost the plot.

Let's say the real odds of Trump-v-Harris are 55-Harris/45-Trump. Betting $1m on Trump is like taking a 10% chance (by abuse of notation) of donating most of that money to Harris supporters (not necessarily her campaign) since we can safely suppose that many of those betting on Harris are doing so because they believe in her, not necessarily because they have any kind of inside info beyond what is in the polls. And vice-versa. Thus, the problem of "betting market manipulation" is self-solving since the attempted manipulators will just end up donating their money to non-idiot, rational bettors over the course of a relatively short period of time.

I thought you were smart enough to figure that out.

It's not a bet. It's a campaign expense. No different from paying partisan pollsters to release polls saying that you're up.

 

[unknown]

Poly giving it 99.4%

That .6% is concerning.