Stocks: Tesla IPO! Suckers any?

TSLA closed at over 161 today. This is the future.

The Tesla S is faster than any Porsche in its price range, more efficient than a Prius, safer than a Volvo, and has carrying capacity rivaling a minivan. The Tesla S can get a 200 mile charge from a Supercharger in about 30 minutes and charges free for life with the purchase of a properly equipped Tesla S (comes standard on the 85kWh model and as an upgrade on the 60kWh model). By the end of 2014 you will be able to drive a Tesla S almost anywhere in the contiguous states without spending a cent on fuel. The only inconvenience being that you'd have to stop for a half hour for about every 3 hours of driving. If you're in a rush, then you can pay for a battery swap at the supercharger station, which takes less time than a gasoline fill up.

The average household spent about $3,000 on fuel last year. The battery in the Tesla S has an 8 year warranty. If gas prices stay constant, then that's $24,000 spent on fuel in the warrantied life of the battery. Tesla Motors will let you pay $12,000 now for an 85kWh battery when the warranty is up in 8 years. So in 8 years time you will have saved $12,000 on fuel cost while not having to worry about the cost of replacing the battery. I'm aware that this is a hundred thousand dollar car, so a $12,000 savings in 8 years is not necessarily a selling point, though rising gas prices could easily make those savings much larger.

There is also savings from much lower maintenance costs. Electric cars are inherently more mechanically sound. The only contact between moving parts in an AC induction motor is at the bearings. The transmission of the Tesla S is direct drive and does not need variable gears because the motor has most of its torque at 0 RPM and redlines around 15,000 RPM. The entire powertrain of the Tesla S (battery, motor, gearbox, and other necessary electronics) is sealed from the environment so water and crud can't get in it. An electric motor does not have to breathe and it does not expel poisonous gasses. There is no exhaust to rust out or start incessantly rattling. There is no air filter, oil filter, or any other kind of filter. The brake pads even last longer because the magnetic resistance of the regenerative brakes does most of the work. The parts that are there don't have to deal with the heat or vibration of an IC engine. The only maintenance you would have to worry about on the Tesla S is the tires.

I'm not saying that nothing will ever go wrong on a Tesla S, but there is far less potential for something going wrong than for any IC engine car. There is both monetary and time savings from from this lack of maintenance.

It's conceivable that you would get more miles per gallon of gasoline if you used that gasoline to power large generators at a power plant and charge a Tesla S through the grid powered by that plant than if you just put that gasoline into an IC engine car. I'd have to look up a lot of figures and do some math on that one. Generators are more efficient than cars because they can run at an optimal RPM and make much better use of waste heat. Also, it would take less fuel to get the gasoline to one big power plant than to many gas stations. Electricity is far more efficient to transport. Lots of variable, so this is a hard one. Even if they came out about the same, there is still the advantage of isolating the pollution to the area of the power plant rather than in the city. Busy streets wouldn't have to smell of exhaust fumes.

I've heard the argument of what do you do with an electric car if the power goes out. Well, what do you do with a gasoline car when the power goes out? We lost power in my area a few years ago from Hurricane Ike and the gas stations didn't work because the pumps are electric. Any solution to that is also a solution to charging an electric car, so that is not a disadvantage for electrics. A couple advantages of electric cars in that scenario are that electricity can come from a variety of different sources. Tesla Superchargers are partly powered by solar panels and could still be used for charging, although at a lower performance. Also, if you keep a Tesla S topped off in your garage, then that can be used as an 85kWh battery backup for your house. If you don't have anywhere you need to drive then you could easily power your house off your car for a few days.
 
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That's not an argument. It's just a lazy way of ignoring reality. That picture didn't apply to Bitcoin and it won't apply to Tesla Motors.

And another thing I forgot to mention is that Tesla Motors is the only American car manufacturer that is not in debt to the government.
 
I got nearly run off the road by a red Tesla while riding by bicycle through Del Mar CA this week. Have seen a black one there too. (lots of money there and in La Jolla which is between me and Del Mar). Del Mar horse racing season in in progress.
 
It looked like something was happening at Tesla on Friday.

Every four hundreds yards or so was a police officer waiting along side of the road.

It looked like someone was coming to visit. I hoped it had nothing to do with me.
 
And another thing I forgot to mention is that Tesla Motors is the only American car manufacturer that is not in debt to the government.

Also the only American Car Manufacturer banned from selling into Texas, among other states.
 
That's not an argument. It's just a lazy way of ignoring reality. That picture didn't apply to Bitcoin and it won't apply to Tesla Motors.

And another thing I forgot to mention is that Tesla Motors is the only American car manufacturer that is not in debt to the government.

It didn't apply to Bitcoin?

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Bitcoin went on a parabolic rise to $266 before plunging back down to $50.

I like Bitcoin and I like Tesla, but Tesla is overvalued at $170 much like Bitcoin was overvalued at $260.
 
Tesla selling very well in California- #3 in total luxury car sales:
http://www.latimes.com/business/aut...california-car-sales-20130823,0,2642983.story

Tesla Motors Model S has quietly become the third-bestselling luxury car in California, trailing only the Mercedes-Benz E-Class and BMW’s 5-Series.

Tesla has sold 4,714 of its Model S electric cars in the state during the first half of the year, according to the California New Car Dealers Assn. Only the Mercedes E-Class, with 6,582, and the BMW 5-Series, with 6,077, sold more.

Moreover, it looks like California accounts for about 50% of the Palo Alto car company’s total sales during the first half of this year.

Tesla sells its Model S sport sedan for prices starting at $63,570 and running to more than $100,000, with the largest battery and driving range.

Californians just seem to get a charge out of electric cars, or at least cars that can run partially on electricity.

The state’s love affair with the Toyota Prius continued through the first half of this year, but a couple of Honda cars are within striking range of knocking the hybrid from its perch as the overall bestselling vehicle in California.

Car shoppers registered 33,987 Prius hybrids in California during the first half of 2013. That was narrowly ahead of the gas-powered 31,798 Honda Civics and 31,576 Honda Accords sold during the same time period.

Toyota’s Camry, with sales of 27,996 units, and Corolla, 26,522, were fourth and fifth, respectively.

Californians are buying cars at a faster rate than the rest of the nation. Sales are up 12.5% here during the first half of the year compared with a 7.7% national increase.

More at link.
 
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I wouldn't bet against Elon Musk, the guy is brilliant and likes to dream big. It's not easy being an entrepreneur in the automotive or airline industry.

 
There supposed to be building (or are?) a Tesla dealership in my town. They already have one about 45 minutes south of me, and there is a supercharger station about 45 minutes to my north. The Model X looks pretty cool, and would totally get it if I had a real job.

Though I also think the Volt fits me better. I normally drive ~30 miles a day, and I would find the gas versatility feature for the 600 miles I drive 3-4 times a year useful. Even looking at Tesla's planned supercharger network by 2015, I'd be driving too far out of my way just to charge up.

I've never actually noticed a Tesla down here, but the Model S looks so much like a normal car I probably wouldn't notice it like I do the Prius (which we do have quite a few of).
 
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TSLA closed at over 161 today. This is the future.

...And the Dow is going to 36,000.
...And housing prices will never go down.

This is another mini bubble just like Netflix at @$300 was a few years ago. In fact, I remember topics back in the summer of 2010 with posters talking about how good of a buy it was.

Tesla may have a bright, long-term future, but the stock has clearly gotten way ahead of itself. Sometime, probably in the next 12 months, this thing is gonna collapse.
 
I would totally look into purchasing a Tesla car, if I had the money...
 
I just priced one out the other day....for a whopping $114,000. I knew they were pricey, but come on. In the 60k range and I would have purchased.
 
It didn't apply to Bitcoin?

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Bitcoin went on a parabolic rise to $266 before plunging back down to $50.

I like Bitcoin and I like Tesla, but Tesla is overvalued at $170 much like Bitcoin was overvalued at $260.

So you're saying that Bitcoin is at its "return to mean" at its current price? Bitcoins are worth about 10X what they started the year at. If you were to draw a trend line for the Bitcoin price in 2013, then it would still have a pretty extreme upward slope.

I do have to say that Tesla's stock has performed well beyond my expectations (closed at over 183 today). I wouldn't consider it overvalued, though. They have a lot going for them. It's just going to be a few years before it all really comes to fruition. By then it will be too late to make big money on their stock. At this point I wouldn't really recommend TSLA as a buy, but I'm also not selling.
 
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