Ted Cruz’s Analytics-Driven Plan to Steal the libertarian Vote from Rand

[eleganz]

What a silly article, once Rons presence on the campaign trail is activated, the libertarian vote will follow

 

[Foreigner]

Ted Cruz isn't dumb, he had Vincent Harris before, and no doubt has learned many a lesson in the importance of database-building and digital game. He tweets himself, and is talking directly with supporters all the time. There also probably have excellent people running his digital operation. Not as fancy as Rand's, probably the second best in the field. I could easily see him trying to run a Ron Paul '12-style campaign based on engaging core grassroots conservatives, directing their activism towards winning caucuses and conventions - not to necessarily win the nomination, but to build a large loyal following like the Liberty Movement, so that he will be the top candidate with a strong ground game from the get-go for the next election.


18 000 is 14,8% of the 2012 total caucus vote of 121 501 voters. Very decent, and I don't doubt that they like Cruz a lot, but there is no guarantee that they will actually turn out to vote, or that they won't change their mind before the actual caucuses.


I'd have to assume, with all the talk of Rand's digital ground game, that they are building massive lists in the key states as well, and actively engaging with them. He should already have massive lists on beforehand from the 2012-campaign, The Campaign for Liberty, YAL, the Saber-people and continuous list-building as a Senator for 4,5 years. There are 600 000 registered republicans, and many independents that can also participate in Iowa. If you can convince 30 - 40 000 of them to show up and vote for you in the caucus, you will probably win with this many candidates running. (I suppose total votes will be higher in 2016 than 2012 because of more, and better candidates) In other words, you need far less than 5% of eligible Republican voters and Republican-leaning voters to show up for you to win. Should not be impossible to pull off for Rand at all. There are probably enough libertarians alone to pull it off. But, by the same logic, Cruz can pull it off as well with a good enough campaign. He has enough cash to compete in a big way. But Rand should have a head start, and has a lot more going on for him, especially if he get's to push his electability argument in a big way during the campaign.

The interesting thing is, here is a very conservative candidate, (ok, with some twists, but most conservatives can manage - though some will dissent on foreign policy) that is polling better than any moderate or establishment candidate - and being essentially in a tie - and gaining - against with the most formidable democratic candidate in recent memory. If Rand can win Iowa in addition, then he will have changed the rules of the game completely. The conservative base easily got the numbers to elect whoever they want to the nomination. They have just never elected one since Goldwater since they all would suck and loose in the general election, with independents not favoring these traditional conservative candidates. (Together with donor influence, of course) With a widespread belief in the conservative base that they would actually stand a good chance in the general election with Rand, they will be forced to consider abandoning the likes of Cruz, Rubio and Walker in favor of Rand. Some will naturally defect to Jeb Bush, as Rubio, for instance, when he eventually backs out, probably will endorse Bush. But then, with a larger, and much more engaged base than the establishment, you can defeat their huge money, and win the nomination. Hopefully!

 

[RonPaul4Prez2012]

I doubt that any real libertarian would jump ship to Ted Cruz, unless they are stupid.

 

[DisneyFan]

Cruz won't get any significant libertarian support by supporting domestic spying to fight terrorism. Some libertarians are very concerned about ISIS and other terrorists, yes, and there might be some room for Cruz to portray Rand as soft in terms of foreign policy and get a few of the more hawkish libertarian voters that way, but the Freedom Act has nothing to do with that.

 

[eleganz]

Cruz is lagging in attention and polling, his team needs to leak information like this to make his campaign look like everything is coming to plan, but is it really? Information like this should be kept to the campaign, not flaunted. They're desperate to be taken seriously.

 

[nikcers]

Cruz is lagging in attention and polling, his team needs to leak information like this to make his campaign look like everything is coming to plan, but is it really? Information like this should be kept to the campaign, not flaunted. They're desperate to be taken seriously.

Frank Luntz was on the nightly show and he basically said Jeb Bush needs to drop out and the only thing he would say about Ted Cruz is that a lot of people support him he actually repeated himself when he said it. They are definitely trying to bolster the perception that he is a popular dark horse candidate. To me it just feels like a few years ago when the tea party got hijacked. All these people saying yeah i am a tea partier then after getting elected you get neo con light.

 

[osan]

This reads like a ham-fisted hit piece whose author thinks he is being subtly clever in his attempt to shift the psychological landscape away from Rand Paul.

And since when is "national security" a major issue with "libertarians". What is this "national security" and who are these "libertarians"?

FAIL^FAIL

You AND the dildos on which you rode in, Teddy and author Joel Gehrke.

 

[eleganz]

Frank Luntz was on the nightly show and he basically said Jeb Bush needs to drop out and the only thing he would say about Ted Cruz is that a lot of people support him he actually repeated himself when he said it. They are definitely trying to bolster the perception that he is a popular dark horse candidate. To me it just feels like a few years ago when the tea party got hijacked. All these people saying yeah i am a tea partier then after getting elected you get neo con light.

That isn't to say Ted Cruz doesn't have support, he's got a lot of the Constitutional and religious conservative vote locked up but not all of it. Cruz could potentially get the entire illegal immigration vote. His base is fervent like we all were for Ron, the only difference is, they don't have experience in caucusing etc... So we have to use our experience to stay a few steps ahead.

Cruz will have a lot of competition in Iowa but I expect him and Rand to do really well in the debates.

 

[nikcers]

That isn't to say Ted Cruz doesn't have support, he's got a lot of the Constitutional and religious conservative vote locked up but not all of it. Cruz could potentially get the entire illegal immigration vote. His base is fervent like we all were for Ron, the only difference is, they don't have experience in caucusing etc... So we have to use our experience to stay a few steps ahead.

Cruz will have a lot of competition in Iowa but I expect him and Rand to do really well in the debates.

To me it seems like this is an effort to convince people that Ted Cruz is Rand Paul light, I just think they are putting a ton of money into this election in order to water down Rand Paul's campaign. I don't really think these voters are Ron Paul voters whatsoever. I think these are dissatisfied bush voters that don't wanna vote for bush. People who are afraid of 9/11 and Iranian nukes but want someone who is a fresh face. They really want to convince you that these are the Ron Paul voters though.

 

[invisible]

Wilson claims they have identified another 110,000 Hawkeye voters — over three times the number of people needed to win the state — who could be persuaded to back Cruz, and they have researched what issues most motivate those voters. “Not only do I know their issues, but we are also scoring them on personality type,” he tells National Review.

WTF! How are they doing this?

 

[dillo]

Ted Cruz is and always has been the controlled opposition

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Teds having problems with his own base right now because of TPA, TPP and H1B1. Peruse through FreeRepublic and see the disillusionment.

And would they like his RINO/neoconservative/Trotskyite connections?

- Elliot Abrahms (Rubio, Cruz adviser)
- John Bolton (Cruz adviser)
- Henry Kissinger (McCain, Christie, Cruz adviser)
- Condoleezza Rice (Christie, Cruz adviser)
- James Woolsey (Cruz adviser)
...
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?450257-The-Neoconservative-Reference-List

 

[otherone]

This reads like a ham-fisted hit piece whose author thinks he is being subtly clever in his attempt to shift the psychological landscape away from Rand Paul.

And since when is "national security" a major issue with "libertarians". What is this "national security" and who are these "libertarians"?

FAIL^FAIL

You AND the dildos on which you rode in, Teddy and author Joel Gehrke.

There has been, and will continue to be, an effort to corrupt the meaning of libertarianism. The message is being morphed into Buchananism, probably to divert the hordes of young people emerging who are attracted to Libertarianism.
The deliberate conflation with paleoconservativism is important to neoconservatives, their primary goal being the expansion of the MIC. Fear sells bombs. and paleos are as terrified of brown people as libs are.
I predict Hannity will proclaim himself a Libertarian soon.

 

[randomname]

Frank Luntz was on the nightly show and he basically said Jeb Bush needs to drop out and the only thing he would say about Ted Cruz is that a lot of people support him he actually repeated himself when he said it. They are definitely trying to bolster the perception that he is a popular dark horse candidate. To me it just feels like a few years ago when the tea party got hijacked. All these people saying yeah i am a tea partier then after getting elected you get neo con light.

They will say anything to get elected, during previous election cycles even Huckabee sounded like ron paul at some point

 

[jbauer]

Analytics 101: Garbage in - Garbage out.

No kidding, international terrorism is on the list for Libertarian voters because most of them are smart enough to figure out that America is the terrorist. Knowing that shouldn't have much sway in how the votes get cast.

 

[specsaregood]

No kidding, international terrorism is on the list for Libertarian voters because most of them are smart enough to figure out that America is the terrorist. Knowing that shouldn't have much sway in how the votes get cast.

As much as I distrust Rafael and believe that he would like nothing more than to play spoiler against Randal; this is just the national journal doing what they do: trying to convince people that spreading war far and wide is the popular position and to not be a warmonger is weird and unpopular.

 

[nayjevin]

Would someone please explain to Ted,

No! Don't tell his staff how dumb this strategy is

that libertarians don't vote, because it violates the NAP?

False, voting is self-defense. Self-defense doesn't violate the NAP.

On second thought, hold off on that and just enjoy the goofy show.

yup

 

[NIU Students for Liberty]

 

[devil21]

This libertarian is more worried about terrorism. What they neglect to mention is I'm worried about terrorism committed by people claiming to be my ALLIES so they can forward a broader agenda under false pretenses, not random goat herding muslims that "hate my freedom".

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Cruz is lagging in attention and polling, his team needs to leak information like this to make his campaign look like everything is coming to plan, but is it really? Information like this should be kept to the campaign, not flaunted. They're desperate to be taken seriously.

Bingo. This isn't a story about Cruz's data analytics team, it's a story from his PR team about how to make voters think he has a good data analytics team, and a shot at cutting into Rand's base. Truth is, Rand is starting to cut into Cruz's base, and this is a defensive reaction to that.