Straw Poll and report from tonight

So if there are actually 800 C4L\YAL\whoever bought those tickets (and they are actually Paul supporters not people who bought them from Paul because they knew he was selling them cheap)

+

.095% of (.72 X( 4000-800)) attendees=218.88=219

total= 219+800= 1019 Paul votes

1019\(.72 X 4000)=35.38%

So that's his ceiling number. Seems like his floor could be significantly lower though.


edit: fixed this
 
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Agorism said:
So if there are actually 800 C4L\YAL\whoever bought those tickets (and they are actually Paul supporters not people who bought them from Paul because they knew he was selling them cheap)

+

10% of 4000 attendees=400

total= 1200 Paul votes

1200\4000=30% of the vote matching his CPAC 31%.

So that's his ceiling number. Seems like his floor could be significantly lower though.
Click to expand...

You've double counted votes for Ron Paul by adding 10% of 4000 plus the 800.
 
Matt Collins said:
Yes we have a good shot. Ron's speech is allegedly at 3pm but we want everyone to be there by 2. Also The straw poll results will not be announced until the exclusive gala afterwards which of course none of us will be at. :)
Click to expand...
CSPAN says Ron Paul's speech is about 2:30 NOLA time!
 
rp08orbust said:
You've double counted votes for Ron Paul by adding 10% of 4000 plus the 800.
Click to expand...

Good call.

So if there are actually 800 C4L\YAL\whoever bought those tickets (and they are actually Paul supporters not people who bought them from Paul because they knew he was selling them cheap)

+

.095% of (.72 X( 4000-800)) attendees=218.88=219

total= 219+800= 1019 Paul votes

1019\(.72 X 4000)=35.38% of total SRLC vote

So that's his ceiling number. Seems like his floor could be significantly lower though.
 
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Any sense of what the gender ratio is? (This is relevant for guessing how Sarah Palin will do.)
 
All the mathematical equations in the world aren't going to help you guys guess this, just going to have to wait and see.
 
Is that 1 PM registration causing problems?

I think Palin will have a pretty huge showing so I think the odds might be against defeating her, but if Paul does come out ahead of Palin I will laugh my ass off because the mommy will go into meltdown again when Palin loses.
 
A Daily Paul posting suggests the 1 PM registration cost at least 40 RP votes.

"I am in the ballroom and they ate shutting 40 of us out! Was not aware of having to be here at 1 to register."
Submitted by spaderj1913 on Sat, 04/10/2010 - 14:50.
 
Wow, haven't people figured out to be like an hour or two early for things like this yet?! Seriously by now EVERY Ron Paul supporter out there should know stuff like that always happens. :rolleyes::mad:

If I was there I would be like the first person casting a vote! The only way they would stop me from voting is if they never began the voting at all!
 
justinc.1089 said:
Wow, haven't people figured out to be like an hour or two early for things like this yet?! Seriously by now EVERY Ron Paul supporter out there should know stuff like that always happens. :rolleyes::mad:

If I was there I would be like the first person casting a vote! The only way they would stop me from voting is if they never began the voting at all!
Click to expand...

should have been 200 lined up when the voting started. this shit is ridiculous.
 
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