Stock Market Collapse Starts Tomorrow

[Pauls' Revere]

Did you go all in?

Thats what my wife says!

 

[Krugminator2]

Did you go all in?

Just because the odds are high of it working doesn't make it any less scary and all it takes is one black swan to go bankrupt. Plus I was a week early. I bought the close on the 23rd. That post was the 30th. I had to ride out some pretty scary downside before the rally kicked in to sell into.

 

[devil21]

Seems like a reasonable time to bump this thread back up. Ides of March today, equinox on the 20th, (3-22)-(2023) a week away.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Seems like a reasonable time to bump this thread back up. Ides of March today, equinox on the 20th, (3-22)-(2023) a week away.

I don't have any predictions this time. I did put in some limit orders to sell some banking stocks over a week ago. I guess that was a prediction. Wish it had been a market order instead. Didn’t execute.

 

[Krugminator2]

https://dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm

Henry Clews wrote in Twenty-Eight Years in Wall Street (1887):

“But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes, these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers’ offices.

“Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which they have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families.”

Took the canes out today in the Russell on the open. We'll see.

 

[Krugminator2]

https://dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm



Took the canes out today in the Russell on the open. We'll see.

Russell has been a laggard and continues to lag which is a good lesson to not buy things that lag. But the general idea worked. 2.5% gain in the Russell from yesterday's open. Taking off half

Seems like a decent chance there is new bull market in tech given how it has held up.

 

[Krugminator2]

Russell down 2.4%. Short term March 17th (St. Patrick's Day) is the 4th most bullish day of the year. It is also Operations Expiration day which after a big up day has a bull bias. Decent odds of an intraday rally. Over the next week or two, market has a big bull bias. Biggest equity fund outflows since April 2020. https://www.lipperusfundflows.com/#create:home:Home:/php/signup_trial.php

Edit: Closed flat without a rally from the original post. Kind of surprised Probably a lot of people not wanting to hold over the weekend and maybe somebody knows something. Maybe a few more percent down.

 

[devil21]

Something about Vatican liquidations, liquidity drying up, Credit Suisse, then credit markets locking up. It all sounds vaguely familiar.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...stock-corporate-earnings-recession-svb-2023-4


Since day-to-day stock indexes are 100% controlled by Citadel, mainly, (hmm...Citadel logo looks a bit like Vatican IOR bank, no?), general stock market prediction moves have proven to be foolish for bulls and bears alike in recent days but the bigger picture is clear and playing out.

 

[devil21]

Probably nothing...

 

[tebowlives]

Probably nothing...

International Immobiliare coming

 

[Krugminator2]

If the market doesn't go up big over the next 12 months, this will be the first time since 2008 where the crowd was right and panicking paid. 2008 was basically the only time where nothing worked. Maybe this Fed tightening is like 2008 and maybe there is some crisis brewing like with crypto but the odds are things will be unicorns and candy canes and the masses will lose again from panic.

Exactly 12 months later...

NASDAQ +30%

S&P 500 +20%

 

[oyarde]

Gold only up 9 1/2 percent from one yr ago but I still like it a lot better than the nasdaq or s&p

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Exactly 12 months later...

NASDAQ +30%

S&P 500 +20%

Up over the last six months. You would have still been taking losses the first 6 months.

That being said, I have started moving back into stocks, but didn’t have an all-in moment. Dollar cost averaging slowly. Wish I would have gone all in in Jan. Hard to call bottoms.

 

[Madison320]

Up over the last six months. You would have still been taking losses the first 6 months.

That being said, I have started moving back into stocks, but didn’t have an all-in moment. Dollar cost averaging slowly. Wish I would have gone all in in Jan. Hard to call bottoms.

I have no idea what's going to happen in the US stock market however the idea that we're going to have a soft landing from the fight against inflation is wrong. We're going to have a financial crisis or depression or whatever you want to call it that is proportional to the amount of stimulus we've had over the last 14 years or so. People keep making the broken window fallacy. They keep looking at only part of the economy, not the economy as a whole.

 

[devil21]

Exactly 12 months later...

NASDAQ +30%

S&P 500 +20%

You mean the S&P7 right? We'll just ignore the other 493. lol

Up over the last six months. You would have still been taking losses the first 6 months.

That being said, I have started moving back into stocks, but didn’t have an all-in moment. Dollar cost averaging slowly. Wish I would have gone all in in Jan. Hard to call bottoms.

Ballsy move.

I saw an interesting post elsewhere where someone made an overlay of stock index moves compared to moon cycles. The post has since disappeared. Any way, it demonstrated pretty convincingly that stocks are very closely tied to moon cycles. It makes sense for various reasons I won't get into. If my recollection is accurate, new moons correlate to pullbacks while full moons correlate to upswings, with the new or full moon essentially kicking off whichever direction it relates to. I wish I could find that post again. Any way, today (6-19) marks a new moon, so if my recollection of the post and overlay is accurate, a pullback starts tomorrow.

"Millionaires don't have astrologers, billionaires do." - JPM