I'm inclined to agree with you on the smarmy, cynical jerk part, etc., but it's not going to split the Republican vote. His votes will naturally come from partisan Democrats, very liberal independents, and perhaps some Greens who are too short-sighted to move towards a free market, no matter what they gain (end the wars, end the Patriot Act, end the NDAA, etc.). These are all people who would not vote for Ron Paul - or ANY Republican (except maybe Huntsman) - under any circumstances. They're not the same as the more serious, concerned, and open-minded liberals and Democrats we're courting.
Seriously, think about it. Could you imagine anyone sincerely saying either of the following?
- I was really wanting to save the country by voting Ron Paul, but then I voted Colbert for the lulz.
- I was seriously weighing my options in the Republican primary, but then Colbert joined the race, so I totally stopped caring and voted for him for the lulz.
I don't think so.