Statistical Anomaly (25%), New Hampshire style

[irrelevantnotch]

i like conspiracy theories durrr

 

[WeBeGood]

Mitt Romney implicated by association with the anomoly?

dosent look random

I agree, far from it. I need to recalculate with the latest numbers, I don't know PHP, but sure looks consistent with what a very simple code change would produce. A statistical anomaly with almost no probability (well, to be truthful, a TBD low probability) of occurring. Kind of like what the MainStreamMedia has been saying about Ron Paul's chances for the last year, except this has to do with Mitt Romney.

 

[RightforAmerica]

bump

 

[Virtual Isolation]

In line with this thread I actually am doing some statistical tests right now on the percentages to get a significance or confidence level in these numbers. Give me 30-45 and I may have something more to throw in here.

 

[WeBeGood]

Updated numbers and fixed Equation Error.

Sorry about that, I had an equation error, I guess it helps to sleep on it and review your work.
The equation should be.
(Percent_difference_Mach_vs_Hand * Total_Machine_Votes / [Candidates Machine Votes - Delta_Candidates_Mach_vs_Hand_Votes])

Using the latest data on http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php 6am 1/10/2008

Percent of Machine votes if Hand count is considered correct (Machines have a problem)

MainStreamMedia so-called 2007 FrontRunners
-7% , McCain, #1 during 2006
+6%, Guiliani, #1 from 2007
+ 29%, Romney, #2 during Sept 2007.........(.0751 * 189004) / ( 62455 - 14192)

MainStreamMedia so-called Second Tier,
-20% Huckabee
-15% Hunter
-22% Paul...................(-.02001 * 189004) / (13671 + 3783)
-8% Other
-13%, Thompson

This could be demographics, urban areas vs rural. Or, the Machines like Romney. Or, a bunch of Mass people flooded over the border to vote in NH?

I think we should consider what happened in the urban areas. Did Mitt have a huge media blitz? Ron Paul supports in urban areas only? Anyone see buses pulling up to the polls?

I still don't know what to think of it.

 

[All Seeing Eye]

http://www.gopetition.com/online/16251.html

If you believe that, in the interests of ensuring a free and fair election takes place in a nation that is currently fighting wars in the Middle East to force other nations to offer their citizens the same, a full recount is necessary in New Hampshire, then please go and sign this petition.

Every vote MUST be counted, regardless of who that vote may be for.

And Digg it too!

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Supporters_of_Paul_Obama_Unite_For_A_Recount_In_NH

 

[UK4Paul]

Thanks hillertexas

So the exit polls were out by 5%, and the testing figures by Politico had Paul, Clinton and Obama around the 5% mark. Could those testing figures indicate that somebody on the inside knew something?

Just a thought.

 

[liberty_Forever]

The CNN exit polls were changed.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=84014