So what is the next LARGE step after Iowa?

[tangent4ronpaul]

Assume no snowball/lemming effect we are looking at 1st in IA, a 2nd or 3rd in NH, 5th in SC, 3rd or 4th in FL, etc. So assume there is no clear frontrunner and all the candidates numbers look like that. That means a really long primary season with all states being relevant.

We had a lot of success county fairs in AI with access to a large percentage of the population. It was
pretty cheap to do to. Southern states tend to have these during the winter and we could do late primary states during the summer. why don't we figure out which states are possible and start doing this now. They do need advanced planning to get booth space.

Secondly, a third of our meetup supporters were orphaned and not in a RP meetup currently. With some daily effort we could get a lot of these people back and swell our boots on the ground in meetups by 50%

-t

 

[milo10]

The plan for NH is already set, more or less, but let's focus on South Carolina. If we can do well there and in Iowa, and can reach out to seniors with a good ad, then we can hope for the best in Florida without wasting too much on a winner-take-all state. We should get a mad influx of donations and new people after a hopeful Iowa win, so we'll know better what resources we'll have for Florida then.

On SC:

A month ago, I was worried about Gingrich. Not any more. This guy has loads of negative karma coming back to him. Keep knocking him down.

I think Bachmann will be out by South Carolina.

Santorum has not yet been truly vetted by the media. Rick also has a really unlikeable personality...he's one of the guys you strive to get away from after being introduced to at a meet and greet. I don't like the timing of his rise, but I think he's an easy target. Go after him hard with viral videos and possible TV ads, depending on where he is after New Hampshire.

Perry worries me a little more. He's a very likeable man, he has more money, he has improved as a debater, and a couple of good performances could give him a strong surge. He's also relatively humble and is happy to joke at his own expense. I could run a much better campaign for him than what he is getting now, and I see ways for him to downplay some of his mistakes, but I sure as hell am not going to share that.

With Perry, you want to push something like the Gardasil shots. This runs very much counter to his folksy, regular guy persona. Perry has an incongruous visual, so you want to keep pushing the notion that there is another side to him.

Go after Romney, but in a lighter way than you would with Gingrich or Santorum. Think the difference between the Serial Hypocrisy ad and the Flip Flop ad. I think most people understand this instinctively. I will start using the word "fop" to describe Romney. Hit him with ridicule.

Ron should be strong on positive ads and also explaining his foreign policy. Also, a new ad for seniors is a must!

And be prepared for dirty tricks. I think the recent Bachmann debacle was an opening salvo.

 

[fatjohn]

On average the Iowa winner receives a 7 percent bump the week after in NH. This would take Paul within striking distance of Mittens. An Iowa win would make a NH win much more probable than an iowa win and new hampshire loss would make a SC win probable. Win Iowa, lose NH and the grinch will take SC going on for a threeway to the brokered convention. Lose Iowa and it becomes a two way between mittens and the grinch. Win Iowa and NH and it´s us vs the grinch.

 

[J_White]

i wonder if the campaign is making full use of the Phone from home program - i feel they should push for more volunteers to do this.

 

[PauliticsPolitics]

Ron Paul does well in Iowa, hopefully win or maybe second.
New Hampshire primary we want a close-enough second.
South Carolina and Florida primary elections in January will hopefully go to some non-Romney (fairly likely).
A 3-way race will become more apparent by then: Romney vs Paul vs [Newt or Santorum or Perry]
There are then four races in early February, all caucuses: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. We can win all of these (we already have HQs in all).

Then there are two primaries, one in Arizona and one in Michigan. This is 3 weeks after the 4 caucuses which we hopefully dominated, giving Paul time to capitalize on momentum.


Following those two primaries: The Washington Caucuses, and then Super Tuesday.

If Ron Paul has only twice the support he had in 2008, these caucuses could prove victory after victory for Paul, solidifying the three-way race between Romney, Paul and [Newt or Santorum or Perry] to unfold on Super Tuesday (which has 4 caucuses itself).

This is all possible, you just have to be ready for the long haul.

 

[Patriot0811]

How could anyone want to make their state look bad by putting Newt in 1st place. we need to get this point across

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Ron Paul does well in Iowa, hopefully win or maybe second.
New Hampshire primary we want a close-enough second.
South Carolina and Florida primary elections in January will hopefully go to some non-Romney (fairly likely).
A 3-way race will become more apparent by then: Romney vs Paul vs [Newt or Santorum or Perry]
There are then four races in early February, all caucuses: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. We can win all of these (we already have HQs in all).

Then there are two primaries, one in Arizona and one in Michigan. This is 3 weeks after the 4 caucuses which we hopefully dominated, giving Paul time to capitalize on momentum.


Following those two primaries: The Washington Caucuses, and then Super Tuesday.

If Ron Paul has only twice the support he had in 2008, these caucuses could prove victory after victory for Paul, solidifying the three-way race between Romney, Paul and [Newt or Santorum or Perry] to unfold on Super Tuesday (which has 4 caucuses itself).

This is all possible, you just have to be ready for the long haul.

good post
+rep

 

[fatjohn]

Ron Paul does well in Iowa, hopefully win or maybe second.
New Hampshire primary we want a close-enough second.
South Carolina and Florida primary elections in January will hopefully go to some non-Romney (fairly likely).
A 3-way race will become more apparent by then: Romney vs Paul vs [Newt or Santorum or Perry]
There are then four races in early February, all caucuses: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. We can win all of these (we already have HQs in all).

Then there are two primaries, one in Arizona and one in Michigan. This is 3 weeks after the 4 caucuses which we hopefully dominated, giving Paul time to capitalize on momentum.


Following those two primaries: The Washington Caucuses, and then Super Tuesday.

If Ron Paul has only twice the support he had in 2008, these caucuses could prove victory after victory for Paul, solidifying the three-way race between Romney, Paul and [Newt or Santorum or Perry] to unfold on Super Tuesday (which has 4 caucuses itself).

This is all possible, you just have to be ready for the long haul.

You really believe there is a decent chance left if Romney wins both Iowa as well as NH? This would be an incredible victory for romney.

You are focussing on how 2 strong seconds is not bad at all. But if we finish after romney and romney instead of santorum and romney, I think its practically over considering a Romney momentum win or a Gingrich win in SC and FL afterwards.

Iowa is vital for the Paul campaign and 2nd should be seen as what it is, a loss.

 

[anaconda]

How come?

Because it's supposed to be a strong state for Mittens and he has been polling ridiculously high there. But now Ron is closing the gap some and a solid RP win in Iowa might make it close in N.H.