So what is the next LARGE step after Iowa?

[Epic]

We just try as hard as we can, one state at a time.

 

[South Park Fan]

Ya know what, and I hate to be negative about this. But what i've bolded above is what worries me.
Snowballing requires something to push the ball down the mountain. Winning simply makes the snowball, but the attention and the "effect" of it is usually generated by the media focus one receives afterwards. We all know how that works which is entirely not fair at all, but it is what it is. If Ron got proper media attention he would be the clear nationwide frontrunner right now.

That's when we beat the media at their own game. If Ron wins Iowa by a large margin over Mitt, they will be forced to acknowledge that Mitt failed the meet expectations, even if they omit who he lost to. That will damage his position in New Hampshire, which will force them to either acknowledge Ron's momentum or continue to discredit caucuses and primaries faster than Ron can do well in them.

 

[Canderson]

I think an ad/media blitz to counter the newsletter fiasco would be a major help between Jan. 3 and 10 as well

 

[helmuth_hubener]

Even Romney is not Romney-rich this go-around -- his campaign that is. Sure, he easily could donate 20 million dollars to himself, but thus far he hasn't done that, and Florida is only a month away (Jan. 31). This is my preferred scenario, consider:

Iowa: Ron Paul wins.
NH: Ron Paul wins.
SC: Ron Paul wins.
Florida: ..... what happens? I submit that Ron Paul wins. Even if he doesn't spend a dime there.

To win Florida, we win everything leading up to Florida. Difficult and unrealistic? So this campaign is difficult and unrealistic. Restoring America to liberty is a difficult and unrealistic. But this will be a lot easier and more realistic than expecting to campaign hard in Florida and win there despite losing all the contests before.

 

[Canderson]

Even Romney is not Romney-rich this go-around -- his campaign that is. Sure, he easily could donate 20 million dollars to himself, but thus far he hasn't done that, and Florida is only a month away (Jan. 31). This is my preferred scenario, consider:

Iowa: Ron Paul wins.
NH: Ron Paul wins.
SC: Ron Paul wins.
Florida: ..... what happens? I submit that Ron Paul wins. Even if he doesn't spend a dime there.

To win Florida, we win everything leading up to Florida. Difficult and unrealistic? So this campaign is difficult and unrealistic. Restoring America to liberty is a difficult and unrealistic. But this will be a lot easier and more realistic than expecting to campaign hard in Florida and win there despite losing all the contests before.

Alright. I agree under one condition. If the field looks divided and vulnerable in the run up to SC the campaign would be wise to go for the gold. If Gingrich, Santorum and Romney beat the heck out of each other with Perry and Bachmann trying to make headway, and Rons numbers look ok it might be worth it.

That said its a big if. We would need to win Iowa and NH and everyone would need to stay in. Right now its questionable and truthfully, unlikely, that we will even win Iowa.

 

[Echoes]

I might be in the minority, but i think NH is a must win along with Iowa. Either win outright or a very close 2nd just to squash the 'iowa was a fluke' scenario.

 

[Canderson]

I might be in the minority, but i think NH is a must win along with Iowa. Either win outright or a very close 2nd just to squash the 'iowa was a fluke' scenario.

It is up there, but I still say Nevada is more important. NH would solidify our Iowa win, but Nevada will bring us back to relevance after a bad showing in the south. Iowa, NH and Nevada wins would probably be enough to make it a likely nomination for Paul, but we still need to win Iowa or else its all just a delegate fight for influence and showing a presence.

 

[jd603]

Romney is loved over here in NH sadly. People don't seem to have any logical reasons to support him though. "He can beat Obama" , which of course isn't true, not with the Ron Paul people not voting for him. This election is Ron Paul or Obama i'm thinking.

 

[South Park Fan]

It is up there, but I still say Nevada is more important. NH would solidify our Iowa win, but Nevada will bring us back to relevance after a bad showing in the south. Iowa, NH and Nevada wins would probably be enough to make it a likely nomination for Paul, but we still need to win Iowa or else its all just a delegate fight for influence and showing a presence.

Nevada is a tough hurdle to surpass given the large Mormon population.

 

[Omnica]

That's when we beat the media at their own game. If Ron wins Iowa by a large margin over Mitt, they will be forced to acknowledge that Mitt failed the meet expectations, even if they omit who he lost to. That will damage his position in New Hampshire, which will force them to either acknowledge Ron's momentum or continue to discredit caucuses and primaries faster than Ron can do well in them.

Nothing will force them to do anything. They will continue to marginalize and smear.

I wish you were right but Dr. P will be the GOP nominee anyway.

 

[anaconda]

It's never too late. The momentum from Iowa *will* affect the NH results. If the results from Iowa are: "Ron Paul wins in a RonSlide" then that effect will be a very good one. We can win NH. Herd mentality, snowballing effects, and seeming inevitability are strong, strong factors in these primary elections. We are in a great position, because all those factors are going to be working for us, because Ron Paul is going to win Iowa.

If Mittens wins by less than about 6-8% in N.H. it will be viewed as a crushing defeat for him and seriously jeopardize his subsequent states.

 

[socal]

I think RP can win New Hampshire if his Iowa victory margin is big enough, which I think it could be. Based on the crowds at his IA events, it looks like he's rapidly gaining support, and I think the racist smear will be a failure overall.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

The campaign should be ramping up efforts in NH right now. Full scale attack on Romney. Whether we win or get 2nd in Iowa, we still need to fight for NH. It will either be going for the knockout punch, or fighting to stay relevant in the race (against the inevitable tide of negative press in the case of a 2nd in Iowa).

 

[refuge]

Here's what needs to happen after winning Iowa:

2nd in NH
top 3 in SC & FL
win Nevada and Maine

Staying in the top 3 in every state keeps us from being ignored.
Winning another state or two before Super Tuesday shows we aren't a one-trick pony.

Keep fighting. It's a long race, with the biggest prizes later in the year. Come into California with a chance to win, and we'll take it from there!

If this was any other candidate, I would agree that staying in the top 3 would be good for us, but top 3 might as well be last place in the Media's eye for Ron Paul. Remember the Iowa Strawpoll? Ron is going to need to get first in at least Iowa, NH, and FL, I think.

 

[kusok]

Can't believe this thread. People talking about 2nd in iowa??? MUST win iowa, and must win NH. After Iowa, ALL IN NH, all in, that ftw pac better go door to door at every NH home. All in! Let's win NH. One state at a time. Try to win them all. But 1st 2 are paramount to get the snowball rolling. beating Mittens in his state would be the checkmate.

 

[enoch150]

1. Do in NH what we did in Iowa just accelerated. Hopefully on January 4th the campaign rolls out a massive ad buy with major attacks on Romney. Paint him as plastic, fake, boring and corrupt.

2. Hope Huntsman helps in bringing Romney down

3. Have a strong feel-good advertising and media blitz to counter the Newsletter racist/conspiratorial label

4. Let spontanious grass roots and momentum give us a few delegates in SC and give up on Florida in order to get a head start in Nevada.

5. Hope that 1 candidate doesn't win both SC and Florida.

6. Bash the hell out of Romney or whoever in Nevada to make sure we win there. I feel Iowa and Nevada are the 2 must wins, with New Hampshire being just below t hem on the priority list.

7. Empty the coffers and go into huge debt if necessary to blanket Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Washington in ads to seal the deal.

8. Watch Arizona and Michigan and jump in to contest if it looks fruitful.

At least that would be my plan of attack if I was Benton. If we could win Iowa, NH and Nevada then dominate the February caucuses it would catapult us to first and Super Teusday would seal the deal.

Florida (50) and Arizona (29) are winner-take-all this year. No point in spending a dime there unless we can win the whole state, and we can't win the whole state in either case.

South Carolina (25), I believe, it's possible to pick up a few delegates here and there if we win a Congressional District or two. If we're known to be stronger in one area in particular it might be a good idea to focus on winning that Congressional District. I don't think it's the best use of resources to blanket the entire state with campaign material.

Nevada (28) has a proportional allocation. We should try to do as well as we can there, even if we don't win the state.

All of the delegates from Colorado (36), Maine (24), and Minnesota (40) are unbound. I don't know what to make of that. Just have to get the right people in the right places, I guess. But if Bachman has dropped out by the time these states come around, we could have a very strong showing in all of them that will feed momentum.

Paul can get delegates from Michigan (30) by winning Congressional Districts. He can also gain delegates by proportional allocation - but only if he gets at least 15% across the state. It is important to do enough campaigning in Michigan to get at least 15%.

I think the pre-Super Tuesday caucus in Washington (43) is non-binding, but again, a strong showing will feed momentum.



tl;dr: Ignore FL and AZ, target only specific areas of SC, spend more on CO, ME, MN, and WA, go all out in NV and MI.

 

[enoch150]

...if we lose SC and NH both, then it's game over again. Of course we can continue on and try to win a few states maybe.

I don't think so. We don't have to come in first in either. As long as we keep picking up delegates here and there, enough to stay in the game even if we're behind, then Texas is make or break for us.

 

[dt_]

If Mittens wins by less than about 6-8% in N.H. it will be viewed as a crushing defeat for him and seriously jeopardize his subsequent states.

How come?

 

[pauladin]

If Mittens wins by less than about 6-8% in N.H. it will be viewed as a crushing defeat for him and seriously jeopardize his subsequent states.

The MSM won't be saying that.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Florida (50) and Arizona (29) are winner-take-all this year. No point in spending a dime there unless we can win the whole state, and we can't win the whole state in either case.

South Carolina (25), I believe, it's possible to pick up a few delegates here and there if we win a Congressional District or two. If we're known to be stronger in one area in particular it might be a good idea to focus on winning that Congressional District. I don't think it's the best use of resources to blanket the entire state with campaign material.

Nevada (28) has a proportional allocation. We should try to do as well as we can there, even if we don't win the state.

All of the delegates from Colorado (36), Maine (24), and Minnesota (40) are unbound. I don't know what to make of that. Just have to get the right people in the right places, I guess. But if Bachman has dropped out by the time these states come around, we could have a very strong showing in all of them that will feed momentum.

Paul can get delegates from Michigan (30) by winning Congressional Districts. He can also gain delegates by proportional allocation - but only if he gets at least 15% across the state. It is important to do enough campaigning in Michigan to get at least 15%.

I think the pre-Super Tuesday caucus in Washington (43) is non-binding, but again, a strong showing will feed momentum.



tl;dr: Ignore FL and AZ, target only specific areas of SC, spend more on CO, ME, MN, and WA, go all out in NV and MI.

Good post!
+rep
I disagvotree on FL and AZ though. There are tons of supporters in each and in FL they are well organized