So can Paul win the Gop Nomination? I dont underatand this process?

[CplKoontz]

If this plays out the way I described, by the end of February we could be looking at an entirely different race, with Paul as the national frontrunner and leading with delegates.

Damn! That would be AWESOME!!!!!!!

 

[CplKoontz]

We understand, and trumpet, that the Republican nominee can't win without Ron Paul.

Can Ron Paul win without Social Conservatives? Can Ron Paul win without Hawks?

It goes both ways.

But somehow, Rick Santorum's supporters don't say "No One But Rick", and doesn't say that Republican Nominee cannot win the general without Socon support. It's entirely true of course. No, that's only what we do. And Republicans, who typically are team players, don't like it.

I am a Social Conservative and I support Paul......

 

[newbitech]

Even after Florida, only 5% of the delegates will have been selected. And they're split 4 ways.

This is a 50 state race. Ron Paul will win delegates in virtually every state after Florida.

source..

You really shouldn't be spreading hopium like this. virtually every state.. No. do you know what the break down for delegates are between WTA-types vs Proportional-types states? It's almost 50/50.

He has to win AT LEAST 1 winner take all state. IF he only wins 1 winner take all state, that means he has to win a huge majority of all proportional-type states. Splits like N.H. and Iowa means he has to win states like S.C. and FL.

 

[parocks]

To touch on what we might be able to expect in the next few weeks, I will share my observations and speculation.

The campaign is skipping FL, and they are making it known they are skipping FL so that they can claim rightfully so that they have no expectations for the state. The are doing so because FL is a 25 delegate "winner take all" state. So unless you win (which would be extremely costly to do so) you go home empty handed. So the decision is, do they spend millions in FL for a chance at winning a relatively small amount of delegates or do they move on to the next phase of states. They are moving on and saving the cash. Smart move for them. This is essentially what they did in SC, but didn't "skip" the state per se, since there is so much media attention on SC being it is the "first in the South" primary.

So I wouldn't expect to hear much about Paul in the national media for the next 10 days or so, as all attention will be focused on FL. However, that doesn't mean the campaign is asleep - they are focusing right now on the four caucus states that follow (NV, CO, ME & MN). They have already announces ad buys in NV & MN, and have a "boots on the ground" program set up for ME and are soliciting for volunteers. I have not seen anything yet on work in CO, but I am sure that we will shortly.

The plan here is to win some of these caucus states. Four of course would be ideal, but personally I think two or more should get us right back into the main narrative of the race. It is likely Santorum will be gone by then. So we will have Romney (who is fairly well organized in the caucus states) and Newt (who is not organized at all). In all likelihood we could see results that show Newt (who may be at that point the national frontrunner) coming in a distant third place in all four caucuses, thus derailing his campaign. Paul then emerges as the true alternative to Romney (what we have wanted all along) and then we move into two primary states (MI & AZ) followed by Super Tuesday. It is highly possible that going into Super Tuesday we could be tied for or in the lead as far as delegates.

If this plays out the way I described, by the end of February we could be looking at an entirely different race, with Paul as the national frontrunner and leading with delegates.

It's almost certain that Paul will look better after the caucus states and Gingrich will look worse after the caucus states. I'm in Maine.

Does anyone know how easy it is to contact the official campaign relatively high up for a local answer? Maybe Collins knows the answer to my question?

Phone From Home does Voter ID. They might do some GOTV calls, but it's mostly voter ID. Do locals get the data that the phone from home people are getting?