Silver Lining - The perfect storm is still brewing

[skolwulf]

Facts about Iowa Caucus:
High turnout
Fred Thompson - 3rd place
Ron Paul - Double Digits

We know that a high turnout would dilute our numbers in Iowa, so this should be no surprise to us. I would like to point out that a 3rd place finish from Fred Thompson actually might work to our advantage in the long run. It keeps the race split heavily going through the primaries.

Huck won, but will likely fade nationally. Romney will likely be consider unelectable and lanquish. Rudy is playing a very risky strategy that will likely explode in his face. Thompson will drop out eventually, but hang in for a bit longer. The storm still brews

I see McCain as our biggest problem...

...but Ron Paul is positioned best money-wise to conduct a drawn out National Campaign, and we, the grassroots, are the fuel that will burn his torch of liberty brightest of all.

 

[liberty_Forever]

Agreed, globalist McCain and Bilderberg shill Bloomberg will be defeated.

 

[skolwulf]

I hadn't even gotten to considering Bloomberg's independent run.

 

[skeptic]

The pessimism is misplaced.

1. Ron Paul did better than expected.
2. He spent relatively little time in the state.
3. He beat Rudy. Decisively! Rudy is TOAST!
4. He did this in a party that has 80% supporting the war.
5. He is not that far behind Frederick of Hollywood and Mad Dog McCain.

Looking to the future are the following likelihoods:

1. The economy will deteriorate. Significantly.
2. The economy will displace the war as the burning issue for the nation and Republicans. This is a major strength of Ron Paul. And it lowers the resistance of national security hawks to consider him. Even Hannity like RP on economics.
3. The Huckster will implode. Fred will fade. McCain will (for a time) be the frontrunner).
4. The GOP will break into 3 camps: Romney, McCain and RP.
5. McCain will eventually get the endorsements of Giuliani, Thompson and Huckabee. Many of their supporters will feel betrayed because of immigration, campaign finance, gun control, global warming etc.
5. Religion will seriously and irreparably divide Romney (Mormon) from McCain (which includes the Huckster, Fred and Giuliani).
6. I expect slow but steady improvement in RP's support. They are sticky since they support him based on ISSUES.
7. RP has the funds to survive and stay in the race.
8. RP has a good chance of accumulating much of the supporters of Fred and Huckster that find McCain unacceptable.
9. Romney will throw in the towel. But with so much bad will between Romney and McCain, his support for McCain will be tepid at best. Many of Romney's supporters, particularly western Mormons will break for RP.

Whether all this happens in time (or at all) remains to be seen. The point is, we have already come so much farther than we had any right to expect back in February. Nobody said this was going to be easy.

 

[skeptic]

Facts about Iowa Caucus:
High turnout
Fred Thompson - 3rd place
Ron Paul - Double Digits

We know that a high turnout would dilute our numbers in Iowa, so this should be no surprise to us. I would like to point at that a 3rd place finish from Fred Thompson actually might work to our advantage in the long run. It keeps the race split heavily going through the primaries.

Huck won, but will likely fade nationally. Romney will likely be consider unelectable and lanquish. Rudy is playing a very risky strategy that will likely explode in his face. Thompson will drop out eventually, but hang in for a bit longer. The storm still brews

I see McCain as our biggest problem...

...but Ron Paul is positioned best money-wise to conduct a drawn out National Campaign, and we, the grassroots, are the fuel that will burn his torch of liberty brightest of all.

Great minds thin alike!

 

[skolwulf]

Whether all this happens in time (or at all) remains to be seen. The point is, we have already come so much farther than we had any right to expect back in February. Nobody said this was going to be easy.

Victory will be all the more sweet given the hard fight.

 

[rasheedwallace]

double digits, win over giuliani.


could be worse.

 

[hankpyro]

thanks

You guys are cheering me up.

 

[Man from La Mancha]

This doesn't mean nothing unless a paper vote counted and witnessed by the public, till you realize this it's useless.

.

 

[junior_bacon_cheeseburger]

Brokered convention and we storm it like the Bastille!

 

[MozoVote]

Reminds me of the Ames results in another way. People were a little down at first, then picked themselves up and kept working. I think that's what we'll see happen this week, too.

 

[ButchHowdy]

1. Ron Paul did better than expected.
2. He spent relatively little time in the state.
3. He beat Rudy. Decisively! Rudy is TOAST!
4. He did this in a party that has 80% supporting the war.
5. He is not that far behind Frederick of Hollywood and Mad Dog McCain.

Looking to the future are the following likelihoods:

1. The economy will deteriorate. Significantly.
2. The economy will displace the war as the burning issue for the nation and Republicans. This is a major strength of Ron Paul. And it lowers the resistance of national security hawks to consider him. Even Hannity like RP on economics.
3. The Huckster will implode. Fred will fade. McCain will (for a time) be the frontrunner).
4. The GOP will break into 3 camps: Romney, McCain and RP.
5. McCain will eventually get the endorsements of Giuliani, Thompson and Huckabee. Many of their supporters will feel betrayed because of immigration, campaign finance, gun control, global warming etc.
5. Religion will seriously and irreparably divide Romney (Mormon) from McCain (which includes the Huckster, Fred and Giuliani).
6. I expect slow but steady improvement in RP's support. They are sticky since they support him based on ISSUES.
7. RP has the funds to survive and stay in the race.
8. RP has a good chance of accumulating much of the supporters of Fred and Huckster that find McCain unacceptable.
9. Romney will throw in the towel. But with so much bad will between Romney and McCain, his support for McCain will be tepid at best. Many of Romney's supporters, particularly western Mormons will break for RP.

Whether all this happens in time (or at all) remains to be seen. The point is, we have already come so much farther than we had any right to expect back in February. Nobody said this was going to be easy.

Great predictions/synopsis!!

 

[ionlyknowy]

I really think that Huck will stay in... he has a dynamic like ours... a dedicated following.

Huck's following is the Christians of America. Just your everyday average Christian.

They are overwhelmingly for Huck. The reason for this is because they feel threatened by the current choices. They see Hillary and Rudy, and have gotten scared. This has caused them to have huge turnout.

 

[skolwulf]

You guys are cheering me up.

There is nothing to be happy/unhappy about, Iowa is what it is (1 of 50 battles). We have work to do now, the time to celebrate will be on Nov 5th, 2008 and the party will be on January 20, 2009.

 

[Molly1]

Let's see

Huckelberry had 200 madison ave handlers using every trick in the book and an earpiece.

Ron Paul had no air time except for being called a 'kook.'

I'd say 10 percent is darn respectable.

Two candidates dropped out tonight, not us.

And, FOX cannot invite Guiliani now without inviting Ron Paul who beat him 2.5 to 1.

There's room in the bus!

Good work guys.

 

[ChelC]

I think that Romney may just hurt himself among Mormons. I am a mormon, and recently saw an interview with him where he said something like this:

"As far as I know God has not spoken to anyone since Moses and the bush, and perhaps a few others."

Since we mormons believe that God appeared to Joseph Smith, this is pretty much a denial to appease the crowd at present. Unfortunately it's not getting much play. I would personally love for all LDS people to hear that interview - it just might open some eyes to how wishy washy he really is.

I've been for Paul all along, but most mormons I know are for Romney. I'm not sure why since he has a really bad political history contrary to much of what we stand for as a church.

 

[pinkmandy]

I know A LOT, and I mean A LOT, of people online and irl who support the Huck first and their next choice is Dr. Paul.

At the moment, they are still convinced Huck is a conservative (most conservative) but RP is second behind him. Dumb, I know, but when they wake the hell up they are heading to us.

 

[skolwulf]

I think that Romney may just hurt himself among Mormons. I am a mormon, and recently saw an interview with him where he said something like this:

"As far as I know God has not spoken to anyone since Moses and the bush, and perhaps a few others."

Since we mormons believe that God appeared to Joseph Smith, this is pretty much a denial to appease the crowd at present. Unfortunately it's not getting much play. I would personally love for all LDS people to hear that interview - it just might open some eyes to how wishy washy he really is.

I've been for Paul all along, but most mormons I know are for Romney. I'm not sure why since he has a really bad political history contrary to much of what we stand for as a church.

I am actually somewhat disturbed that many people vote solely based on organized religion. The good thing about this is it will work against Romney in the long term, the bad is that it will help Huck. Too bad more people can't be more rational and leave religion to the pew and not the poll.

BTW, I'm an atheist and don't have anyone representing my beliefs - but Paul has my vote, even if I don't agree with him 100%.

 

[Pii]

I really think that Huck will stay in... he has a dynamic like ours... a dedicated following.

Huck's following is the Christians of America. Just your everyday average Christian.

They are overwhelmingly for Huck. The reason for this is because they feel threatened by the current choices. They see Hillary and Rudy, and have gotten scared. This has caused them to have huge turnout.

Not that I like pandering, but maybe people should be pointing out that both of Ron Paul's brothers are ministers. He is a religious man, and comes from a religious family.

Also, his anti-abortion position should be resonating with this same group of people, but perhaps more importantly, his proposed method for dealing with abortion, putting the decision back into the hands of the States, is actually a workable and reasonable compromise on the issue.

But rather than delve into that quagmire of an issue, the campaign should be hammering home the real issues... Iraq, The Economy, the State of the Dollar, and Rampant Federal Spending.

On these issues, Paul either offers a real contrast to the other candidates' positions, or a depth of expertise that cannot be matched by the other candidates (usually both). The fact that Paul doesn't need advisers is simply astounding when compared to any modern President, all of which have been heavily dependent upon "experts" to formulate policy. He doesn't need to refer to some group of technocrats or lawyers to determine the correct course of action. Nobody on the stage can make that statement, and they have all said the opposite when asked.

 

[itshappening]

Huck gets embedded reporters and daily media coverage, lots of earned media... he doesn't need to advertise so much..

meanwhile the MSM ignore Ron but he has money to maybe get his message out more.. lets hope so