Should Rand endorse Sam Clovis (U.S. Senate Iowa)?

[Bastiat's The Law]

What say you guys?

 

[TaftFan]

Yes. Romney is campaigning for Ernst.

 

[Rocco]

Absolutely. The new PPP Iowa numbers were a disaster, Rand needs some socon cred right now, he should go to Iowa to stump for Clovis.

 

[lib3rtarian]

NO, Clovis is polling poorly. After the Brannon loss, Rand doesn't need another loss to his credit right now. Rand should only back candidates who at least have a modicum of a chance to win. "Rand Paul picks another loser" is not a headline I want to see. Rand support should only help push the numbers over the edge, no one should rely on a Rand endorsement being able to provide all of the votes needed to win.

 

[RandallFan]

Rand could endorse in the IA3 race. Maybe he could endorse Jack Kingston in the GA senate race.

Steve King IA4 and Loebsack IA2 are the only incumbents. IA1 is liberal.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

NO, Clovis is polling poorly. After the Brannon loss, Rand doesn't need another loss to his credit right now. Rand should only back candidates who at least have a modicum of a chance to win. "Rand Paul picks another loser" is not a headline I want to see. Rand support should only help push the numbers over the edge, no one should rely on a Rand endorsement being able to provide all of the votes needed to win.

Clovis will likely win if it goes to the convention. I doubt anybody wins outright with 35%.

 

[RandallFan]

Rand and Santorum (Clovis) vs Romney and Palin (Ernst).

I wonder how the always-endorse-women policy plays amongst the GOP voters in Iowa.

 

[compromise]

Rand could endorse in the IA3 race. Maybe he could endorse Jack Kingston in the GA senate race.

Kingston would be good. He's likely to win and agrees with Rand on some issues. Rand should also immediately endorse McDaniel if he wins the primary.

 

[DeMintConservative]

Absolutely not. Perhaps he should endorse Ernst, she's going to win the nomination and she might be good enough of a candidate to pull the upset in the general. Although he might come across as a bandwagoner and upset some of his Iowan supporters who are getting behind Whitaker.

I also don't see the point of endorsing in Georgia. It's far from a given Kingston will win and there isn't much of a difference between him and Perdue ideologically, they just have different regional powerbases.

 

[TaftFan]

Absolutely not. Perhaps he should endorse Ernst, she's going to win the nomination and she might be good enough of a candidate to pull the upset in the general.

I also don't see the point of endorsing in Georgia. It's far from a given Kingston will win and there isn't much of a difference between him and Perdue ideologically, they just have different regional powerbases.

Ernst is the Chamber of Commerce candidate. Clovis is the real conservative in the race.

I don't want him endorsing in Georgia. Perdue and Kingston are both establishment moderates, though I will support Kingston over Perdue. They actually both live across the coastline and got their main support from south Georgia. Middle and Northern Georgia has no candidate in the race.

 

[Anti-Neocon]

There is no "real conservative" in the race. Rand should definitely not be endorsing crappy candidates who won't win.

 

[DeMintConservative]

"Chamber of Commerce candidate" and "real conservative" are just empty buzzwords. The CoC endorsed Ernst because she's going to win the primary; if Jacobs was ahead in the polls, they'd have endorsed him. Was Ernst a better candidate to you 12 days ago, before the Chamber's endorsement? Clovis is the candidate of the Bob Vander Plaats' wing. Everyone can claim to be the "real conservative" - especially those candidates without a voting record.

Look at a map of the Georgia primary:
http://www.ajc.com/us-senate-gop-primary-map-2014/

Kingston won all the rural counties in the South (many of them he represents or did till 2012 in the old 1st district) and he'll keep them in the runoff. Perdue (who was born in mid Georgia, Macon) will once again win most of the rural counties north and south of Atlanta. Whoever wins Handel's voters gets metro Atlanta and the nomination.

I'd say Kingston is the favorite, but Perdue has money, the anti-establishment/career politician card and Kingston's earmarking record.

 

[compromise]

Absolutely not. Perhaps he should endorse Ernst, she's going to win the nomination and she might be good enough of a candidate to pull the upset in the general. Although he might come across as a bandwagoner and upset some of his Iowan supporters who are getting behind Whitaker.

I also don't see the point of endorsing in Georgia. It's far from a given Kingston will win and there isn't much of a difference between him and Perdue ideologically, they just have different regional powerbases.

Kingston's polling higher at the moment. Most of the conservative Broun/Gingrey/Handel support will go to him. Perdue is for bailouts, Common Core and the Patriot Act, Kingston is against all that.

IIRC, Clovis wasn't a big fan of Ron Paul supporters and especially their involvement in the IA GOP when he was on talk radio. He's probably a lot better than the other candidates but he doesn't seem to have much of a chance anyway.

 

[Uriah]

I do not recommend a Rand endorsement of any candidate in Iowa. If he endorsed Ernst he would lose major credibility here in Iowa with almost all Republican activists regardless of faction affiliation. If no candidate gets the required 35% then this will go to convention and I predict a Clovis nomination. Clovis has been gaining steam with endorsements and a small bump in polling. I see a surge coming his way like what we all saw for Santorum in 2012. I don't think he can surpass Ernst but he could force a nominating convention. Some liberty folks support Whitaker over Clovis as I do.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

I do not recommend a Rand endorsement of any candidate in Iowa. If he endorsed Ernst he would lose major credibility here in Iowa with almost all Republican activists regardless of faction affiliation. If no candidate gets the required 35% then this will go to convention and I predict a Clovis nomination. Clovis has been gaining steam with endorsements and a small bump in polling. I see a surge coming his way like what we all saw for Santorum in 2012. I don't think he can surpass Ernst but he could force a nominating convention. Some liberty folks support Whitaker over Clovis as I do.

Whitaker said some things in his interview with Jan Mickelson that should make liberty folks raise an eyebrow.