RP Winning 5 States, TAMPA "INEVITABLE" <--- FOX NEWS

[PaulConventionWV]

Have people done the numbers, yet? I saw a few people posting last night who said they were going to tally everything up, but, it appeared that our chances at a contested convention were essentially done after last night's sweep.

The "sweep" means nothing if Romney's popular vote wins don't translate into delegates. That's where we come in. The media assumes that, if Romney wins the popular votes, he gets a proportionally large amount of the delegates, but that is anything but certain. In fact, it is almost certainly not true in most states. We already know that, in at least a few states, Ron Paul got the most delegates, despite being 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the popular vote. The popular presidential vote means nothing. It's what happens after that that actually determines the delegate allocation and thusly, the election.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

We'll win California and Texas. Now FUCK OFF.

The system in California isn't very conducive to our winning. How do you see that happening?

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Actually the campaign stated that was their secondary goal.

We have two scenarios before us. One, Paul starts winning the majority of the remaining contests and somehow forces a brokered convention. Two, we have delegates at the convention (bound to Paul, pledged to Paul or bound to another candidate) and those delegates work for influence in the platform.

One is a possibility, albeit a very small one, and relies on the candidate and campaign being able to transform the entire narrative of the race. The second is a certainty, as in there will be a convention and Paul will have supporters there. Whether or not they choose to do anything with their involvement in the convention is yet to be seen.

I really don't know why you think you can determine how many delegates Paul needs to force a brokered convention. There are very few set numbers for the states yet. Romney doesn't "have" as many delegates as he is reported to have. The delegates from many states that voted earlier have yet to be voted on at their respective state conventions, but as we have seen, even if we don't get the popular vote, we can still obtain a plurality or majority of the delegates from those states. So, I don't see why you are arguing the numbers game, claiming it is almost mathematically certain that Paul won't force a brokered convention when you don't even know what the real numbers are yet.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I tally the number (an estimate).
Romney 840 need 32% of the remaining delegates from uncommitted and remaining primaries.
Paul 106 need 109% (impossible) of same as above

The percentage for Paul maybe better once Iowa, Maine, and Washington results come in but essentially base on my understanding it is impossible for him to win now.

Where are you getting your numbers if the delegates from many earlier states haven't even been determined yet?

 

[tbone717]

I really don't know why you think you can determine how many delegates Paul needs to force a brokered convention. There are very few set numbers for the states yet. Romney doesn't "have" as many delegates as he is reported to have. The delegates from many states that voted earlier have yet to be voted on at their respective state conventions, but as we have seen, even if we don't get the popular vote, we can still obtain a plurality or majority of the delegates from those states. So, I don't see why you are arguing the numbers game, claiming it is almost mathematically certain that Paul won't force a brokered convention when you don't even know what the real numbers are yet.

Because most of the delegates are bound by state party rules. Of the 2286 that will be at the RNC, all but 415 will be bound to a candidate (unless released as will likely be the case for Santorum's and Newt's bound delegates). As of this today, by way of caucus and primary results, Romney has 724 bound delegates that are required by party rules to vote for him on the first ballot. Any of the unbound delegates that may have pledged support to him are just speculative since those delegates technically can change their vote between now and the RNC. If you include the "pledged" number that brings Romney to 852. Pledges are based on declared preferences by those unbound delegates that have publicly declared support for Romney

When you reference states that have not had their conventions there are three types of those. One are for states that award unbound delegates like Iowa. Those delegates may declare a preference, but they are not bound to any particular candidate, as stated above there are a total of 415 of those at the RNC (some of them come from caucus states, and some of them are the "bonus" delegates that are awarded in states like AL). The second type are in states like MO that award bound delegates through their state convention process - there are some of them yet to be decided, but it is not a large number. The third type are in states like MA where the actual persons that will be at the RNC has yet to be decided, but those persons are bound by state rules to cast their first round ballot for Romney regardless of their personal preference.

So you are incorrect in your statement that the popular vote does not matter. That is only the case in caucus states that award delegates through the convention process (there are only 10 states that do that IIRC), and states like PA & IL where delegates are directly elected at the polls. But for the majority of states the primary results are binding. For example, 92 of the 95 delegates from New York are required by state party rules to cast their first round ballot for Romney, whether they like him or not. Even though, NY's state convention isn't until the end of May, the votes for those delegates have already been determined by yesterday's results.

 

[kathy88]

From yesterday's contests:

Pennsylvania: (delegates could declare on their applications which candidate they were campaigning to be a delegate for, or they could campaign as uncommitted)

Mitt: 11
Rick: 3
Ron: 5
Newt: 4
Uncommitted: 16
Available: 33 to be chosen at state (3 supers, I believe)

Although the campaign sent out their list of delegates, I would not be surprised if some of the uncommitted delegates are Paul's. These delegates are ALL unbound, as are the 33 yet to be chosen. Also the 7 that Newt/Rick got last night need to go somehwere. If they are party hacks, they will go to Mitt. If they hate Romney they will come to us. SO, the "5" reported delegate figure out of PA I feel is a low estimate.

Delaware:

All 17 bound to Romney first round.

Rhode Island:

Mitt: 12
Ron: 4
Uncommitted: 3

The 16 are bound first round, the 3 are not.

Connecticut:
Romney: 25
Uncommitted: 3

25 are bound first round, uncommitted are unbound

New York:

Mitt: 92
Uncommitted: 3

92 are bound first round, 3 are not

 

[sailingaway]

bump