RP on INTRADE

[gmason06]

Currently the price of RP contracts are very cheap, Bid/Ask is 1.4/2.0, meaning 50 contracts can be purchased for $10.00. Each contract has the potential to rise to $10.00 each. 50 contracts x 10.00=$500.00 for every $10.00. Why is this important, please read on and keep in mind as you read that today RP supporters have donated $50,000+. Had that money been first used to purchase RP contracts on INTRADE it could very easily have become worth over 875,000 in a few days while scoring a very favorable newsworthy event for RP due to the rise in INTRADE contract price. This is a very important win-win opportunity for us that is quite easy to accomplish if only about 100-200 RP supporters understand the concept and act upon this in a timeframe comparable to a money bomb.

If you are not familiar, INTRADE is a "Prediction Market" where people buy and sell contracts based on their view as to the outcome of an event, such as who will be the 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee. Ron Paul Graphs, among other sites, report the daily price of RP contracts on INTRADE.
It is essentially betting on the future/a guage of what people think wil occur in the future. Because this is a market where thousands of people put their money where their mouth is many important people also watch and comment on this market as an important indicator of what may occur in the future. This means that moves on INTRADE generate media attention. Because of this various POTUS campaigns/supporters BUY their candidate and/or SELL their candidates opponents to create a spin opportunity that their candidate is considered superior among the "smart money/inside knowledge" crowd.

How can this help RP with Money and Publicity?

PUBLICITY-If a large number of RP's supporters purchased a small number of contracts each we could significantly move this market in the direction that the "smart money" believes RP's odds of winning are improving by those with the inside track on how the primaries will ultimately play out-like how the "TRUE" campaign cash situation will be sinking more of the competition, for instance based on our greater knowledge of upcoming MONEY BOMBS, etc. A large contract price move in a short period of time gets a lot of attention-PUBLICITY- and it tends to influence non-partisan speculators to jump on the trend.

MONEY-If we can move the market up we can earn profits that we can then contribute to the RP campaign. The best part about this is the profits will be at the expense of supporters of the other candidates, i.e. we will be using their money to donate to RP, gotta love that. As mentioned above, big market move bring in money from non-partisan folks that are just on INTRADE to try and make a speculative profit, which will further move the RP contracts in the direction we want them to go-UP.

If people think this is a good idea/want to know more about how this can be implemented just ask here. I imagine there are others on the DP that are familiar w/ INTRADE that can assist with implementing this and if there is sufficient interest in such an effort. ALL can help spread the word. The key here is a lot of people investing 10-20 dollars.

IMPORTANT NOTE: For Non-US citizens that cannot contribute to RP's campaign-This is an excellent and easy way for you to assist in promoting RP/FREEDOM that is legal.

The idea is we are showing our support and confidence in RP by "BUYING" (going long) on RP contracts. If there are more "Buyers" than "Sellers" the price on RP contracts move up in price(supply/demand the more demand for something relative to the supply prices increase). Note: before I go further this is not absolutely guaranteed to make a profit, that is the reason to limit everyone to $10.00-20.00 max/what each person can afford to lose. The basic idea is that a LARGE number of RP supporters(very important) start BUYING RP contracts at around the same time(increased demand) moving the price up and keeping demand HIGH so that the price stays UP(at least for a while). When the price is reasonably higher than the price of your BUY then you can sell a few which will be at a profit to donate to RP. ****IF YOU ARE MAXED OUT/IF SOMEONE IS A NON-US CITIZEN YOU/THEY CAN HELP BY BUYING TO INCREASE THE RP CONTRACT PRICE WHICH WILL ALLOW NON_MAXED OUT/US CITIZENS TO MAKE A PROFIT TO DONATE TO THE CAMPAIGN. SINCE YOU/OTHERS ARE NOT DIRECTLY GIVING SOMEONE MONEY TO DONATE IT IS NOT AGAINST THE RULES. In other words if one persons actions by coincidence increased someone elses chances of making an INTRADE profit on RP contracts and that person just happened to use those profits to donate to RP it is not the same as a MAXED out person giving a non-maxed out person money specifically to donate to RP, that is not allowed. If a Non-US citizens INTRADE activity happens to indirectly help a US citizen make an INTRADE profit that they then donate to RP it is not the same as them directly sending money to a US citizen to Donate to RP which of course is not allowed. Understand.

BTW-ALL we are doing is showing our support in RP by being "BULLISH" on his prospects for winning the nomination. If doing so happens to both generate profits for RP supporters that increases their available funds and then they decide to use those funds to donate to RP those to separate events are not related. Also, showing support by purchasing RP contracts does tend to increase the price of RP contracts which gets attention/can very likely lead to positive media attention("RP INTRADE CONTRACT PRICE KEEPS GOING UP!!!!, MANY ARE BULLISH ON RP FOR GOP NOMINATION!!!-potential media headlines like that). Bottom line we believe in RP, we demonstrate our belief in RP by going by BUYING RP contracts on INTRADE because we think he will WIN!! If by chance a lot of RP supporters happen to show their confidence that RP will win, thus increasing the Price/earning profits and creating media attention that is merely due to our belief in RP not because that was our purpose---understand?

Also, if you have an account, do not BUY/SELL anything yet. There is a bit more to explain/it is important that others are also wanting to SUPPORT RP on INTRADE during THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Please consider/comment on this proposal and thanks for taking the time to read this post.

If you do not understand how this works-ASK.

Summerizing the primary benefits of this are:

1. It is a means to force our opponents to DONATE to RP (against their will) that is the best part!

2. It allows a completely legal way for Non-US citizens to transfer money to US citizens who then contribute to RP.

3. It is quick and easy.

4. low cost-$10-$20 per person can easily generate $120-$240 in funds to donate in a few days. What is better 10,000 people donating $20 each=$200, 000 or 10,000 people donating $240 each=$2,400,000; hard choice!

5. Generates positive media attention, rapidly.

If you consider this to be worthwhile, it is, please spread the word.

 

[Physics]

Interesting idea... how many buys would you need to influence the market? How many people do you need and how much?

 

[UziSprayTF]

I have a intrade account and I disagree. There is enough liquidity across the market that would force RP down again. Bet on what you think will happen, not on what you want to happen. For example, bet that it will be a brokered convention or that Hillary will win the nomination or something like that. Or bet on the odds of a recession. Something. Just don't think you are really doing RP any favours by making some other trader rich.

Also be vary careful of people that encourage you to do so. gmason06 you're new here, and at the risk of ticking you off (which I really hope I don't do) I have to warn others that if gmason06 were dishonest to the rest of us he could buy RP contracts then he could significantly gain off of it if he has us buying many many contracts.

 

[Physics]

lol don't worry, I'm far from jumping on-board. Good points though.

 

[RPinSEAZ]

This reminds me of a pump and dump scheme where a person promotes a stock to force the price up then he sells all the stock he bought before the pump at the height of the market letting all the suckers who bought on the way up lose their savings.

 

[gmason06]

No Offense taken however a few points-

I have a intrade account and I disagree. There is enough liquidity across the market that would force RP down again. Bet on what you think will happen, not on what you want to happen. For example, bet that it will be a brokered convention or that Hillary will win the nomination or something like that. Or bet on the odds of a recession. Something. Just don't think you are really doing RP any favours by making some other trader rich.

Also be vary careful of people that encourage you to do so. gmason06 you're new here, and at the risk of ticking you off (which I really hope I don't do) I have to warn others that if gmason06 were dishonest to the rest of us he could buy RP contracts then he could significantly gain off of it if he has us buying many many contracts.

1. I have been a Ron Paul supporter for over a decade.

2. While I have not posted here much, I have been a member for sometime.

3. My only motivation is to help RP/the RP campaign

4. My screen name here is gmason06(duh) but I post almost exclusively as gmason08 on other boards(I made an error when I registered here, tried to get Admin to correct it with no luck-I would still like to correct that Admin if possible)

5. I promoted RP/Freedom extensively on DIGG for months-gmason08-feel free to check it/me out. Some was pretty good stuff I think.

6. As to the liquidity of that particular contract, that is a good point which I fully intended to address IF and only IF there was sufficient interest to even consider proceeding further, no sense going through all the nitty gritty if few are even interested.

Sufficient (minimum) interest, based on each individual risking 10-20 dollars would require approximately 200 RP supporters. Based on a current open interest/outstanding contracts of just under 103,000 contracts. Meaning that 200 people risking 20 dollars at $0.2 per contract=100 contracts each person x 200 people=20,000 contracts or approximately 20% of the current open interest. That should provide sufficient demand to move the price such that the speculative and/or propaganda short traders will have to cover their shorts which will further increase demand/price.

As I believe I mentioned, this is not guaranteed under these circumstances but as I also mentioned RP supporters have already donated $50,000+ to the campaign.

Putting that much buying to work on the Intrade RP contract:

Current TOTAL value of the RP 2008 Rep. Nominee Contract=

102,900 contracts x current BID 1.4 (14 cents per contract)=

$14,686 TOTAL RP MARKET VALUE-INTRADE

102,900 contracts x current ASK 2.0 (20 cents per contract)=

$20,580 TOTAL RP MARKET VALUE-INTRADE

compare the above to what just todays donors could have done with, as you say, the Liquidity of this particular INTRADE market with todays donations,
i.e.

50,000+ is approximately 2 1/2 times the TOTAL VALUE of this market at ASK price(3.5 times BID price). I can assure you that 2 1/2 times entering ANY market with BUY orders will substantially move that market.

As you said you did not mean to offend me and I take you at your word, as well as, not taking any offense at your comments. In fact your important point allowed me to explain ONE of the details to be understood prior to implementing this proposal if at all.

Now I will point something out with which I hope you will not take any offense.

There are Many people trade on INTRADE. Traders on INTRADE must keep up with current relevent news related to the markets they trade in order to make informed trading decisions. For example-Traders in political election contracts are wise to stay VERY informed about all potential developments effecting that market including the potential of the supporters of one or more candidates entering a specific market in a big way.

If an individual out checking political news relative to a particular market they SOLD SHORT(profiting from a decline in price), happens into a discussion forum where supporters of a candidate represented by that market(LIKE RP) which that individual SHORTED were discussing the possibility of showing their support by a MASSIVE BUY, that person would be wise to discourage such talk. Just sayin' and no offense. My point is I have no problem you questioning my motives, it is good you do so but I hope you understand what you suggested as a possibility for me just as easily goes both ways, i.e. your motives may be the ones which are impure.


For everyone-The bottomline is this proposal requires a risk of 10-20 dollars per person. That amount would be your TOTAL risk but it could very possibly be ALL lost, ALL $10-20. This is not for anyone that cannot afford to lose 10-20. If you think this is a scheme for me to gain 10-20 from 200 people then you do not understand markets (or me) well enough to participate. Unlike when some asks you for a chipin for a precinct walk or whatever, with this you always completely maintain control of your own account.

Feel free to ask any questions you like. The purpose at this point is merely to determine how many folks would even consider exploring this further. Even if there was sufficient interest it would still remain to decide whether or not to proceed.

 

[gmason06]

Btw

Considering the RP supporters reputation for being able to mobilize a lot of cash in a short period of time merely discussing this here-extensively-has the possibility of moving that particular contract up if INTRADE folks get wind of it. It could even cause the asshole SHORTING/driving down the RP contract price to get burned on their SHORT Contracts which serves them right and is extra funny because I suspect that many that would short RP contracts are the same anti-RP's we have been fighting.

 

[Ex Post Facto]

Interesting, can you inform me about what INTRADE is exactly. How does it work? Whats involved?

 

[gmason06]

UziSpray

You neglected to point out something very significant, particularly for someone that has an INTRADE account.

You suggested that others would force the RP contract price DOWN. As I am sure you are well aware, the only way they could do so would be to SELL SHORT at a greater volume than we BUY. So far no big deal. But the critical part you neglected to tell everyone is that for each contract the sell short their TOTAL risk is 10.00 minus the short sale price.

Since the current price is 14-20 cents per contract everytime they sell SHORT they risk right now 10.00-14-20 cents=$9.86-9.80

Where we (RP) contract buyers only have a total risk of 14-20 cents per LONG BUY contract.

Who do you think will win that war of attrition those who risk 14-20 cents per shot they take or those that risk $9.80-9.86 per shot and each side must at least EQUAL the other sides shots NOT to lose ground?

Are you sure you have not SHORTED the RP market UZISpray?

By the way you have posted more than I have but I joined in June, you joined in December??

Interesting screen name you have. My screen name is in honor of George Mason, author of the BILL OF RIGHTS, one of my heros. My home is very near Gunston Hall, George Mason's Home. What does your screen name mean?

 

[sharpsteve2003]

I looked into intrade a month ago and even signed up. but when I tried to put money into the account I ran into many problems. They could not take my credit card as credit card companies list them as a gambling site. then when I tried to fund it by other means (wire the money, or fed ex) the cost became not worth the trouble. About $30 bucks for international transfers. They are based in Ireland.
So now I just play in the practice area where they give you 5000 to start with. It's just for fun and you can see what you could have done had you been able to put Fake Federal reserve dollars in. It does not affect real trading. I only check back on it about once a week. And I also check in the real trading area what is happening. Checking out some of the graphs to see where other candidates are headed is just another way to see who might win certain states. They do seem to be about as good as the polls.

I had the plan like you that if I had been able to put in a few bucks I could have made some extra money to give to Ron Paul.

 

[UziSprayTF]

You neglected to point out something very significant, particularly for someone that has an INTRADE account.

You suggested that others would force the RP contract price DOWN. As I am sure you are well aware, the only way they could do so would be to SELL SHORT at a greater volume than we BUY. So far no big deal. But the critical part you neglected to tell everyone is that for each contract the sell short their TOTAL risk is 10.00 minus the short sale price.

Since the current price is 14-20 cents per contract everytime they sell SHORT they risk right now 10.00-14-20 cents=$9.86-9.80

Where we (RP) contract buyers only have a total risk of 14-20 cents per LONG BUY contract.

Who do you think will win that war of attrition those who risk 14-20 cents per shot they take or those that risk $9.80-9.86 per shot and each side must at least EQUAL the other sides shots NOT to lose ground?

Are you sure you have not SHORTED the RP market UZISpray?

By the way you have posted more than I have but I joined in June, you joined in December??

Interesting screen name you have. My screen name is in honor of George Mason, author of the BILL OF RIGHTS, one of my heros. My home is very near Gunston Hall, George Mason's Home. What does your screen name mean?

Oh, I like guns. Specifically Uzis. I'm not Jewish, or a neo-con. At one time (2002) I called myself a neo-libertarian, but once I found out that Bush was full of shit RE: Iraq I went back to my more peaceful roots.

As for if I shorted it: It actually puts my mind at ease that you would suggest that. I have not, but I thought that that might cross your mind if you were honest. I really debated if I should short it a while back, but decided I'd rather short the third party run (which I REALLY REALLY suggest people do. Seriously. RP is not going to run as a 3rd party.) than the nomination win itself.

As for a war of attrition, that is quite possible. They would have to cover many more pennies than we would. Ultimately, however, I think markets should show good information. I understand that you want to make a difference, but I think that the money would be better used elsewhere.

Glad to hear that there is another Intrader on the boards And again I really did mean no offense at the suggestion. Now that I see that you were registered in the summer I am more at ease.

 

[Knightskye]

Manipulation...

Am I on the Paul Forums or the Giuliani Forums?

 

[gmason06]

I will

Interesting, can you inform me about what INTRADE is exactly. How does it work? Whats involved?

Provide more info tomorrow please look for it here, getting late for me. In the mean time you can go to INTRADE.COM they have a lot of good info there explaining how it works.

Thanks for your interest.

 

[gmason06]

sharpsteve I think I may be able to help

I looked into intrade a month ago and even signed up. but when I tried to put money into the account I ran into many problems. They could not take my credit card as credit card companies list them as a gambling site. then when I tried to fund it by other means (wire the money, or fed ex) the cost became not worth the trouble. About $30 bucks for international transfers. They are based in Ireland.
So now I just play in the practice area where they give you 5000 to start with. It's just for fun and you can see what you could have done had you been able to put Fake Federal reserve dollars in. It does not affect real trading. I only check back on it about once a week. And I also check in the real trading area what is happening. Checking out some of the graphs to see where other candidates are headed is just another way to see who might win certain states. They do seem to be about as good as the polls.

I had the plan like you that if I had been able to put in a few bucks I could have made some extra money to give to Ron Paul.

you avoid that problem if you wish. I had a similar problem but I got my CC company to pre-authorize the charge. If you would like to try I can reply with the details tomorrow. Leave a request here if you want that info.

 

[gmason06]

Thanks for the reply UziSpray

Oh, I like guns. Specifically Uzis. I'm not Jewish, or a neo-con. At one time (2002) I called myself a neo-libertarian, but once I found out that Bush was full of shit RE: Iraq I went back to my more peaceful roots.

As for if I shorted it: It actually puts my mind at ease that you would suggest that. I have not, but I thought that that might cross your mind if you were honest. I really debated if I should short it a while back, but decided I'd rather short the third party run (which I REALLY REALLY suggest people do. Seriously. RP is not going to run as a 3rd party.) than the nomination win itself.

As for a war of attrition, that is quite possible. They would have to cover many more pennies than we would. Ultimately, however, I think markets should show good information. I understand that you want to make a difference, but I think that the money would be better used elsewhere.

Glad to hear that there is another Intrader on the boards And again I really did mean no offense at the suggestion. Now that I see that you were registered in the summer I am more at ease.

I am a gunner myself. I really did not take any offense and hope you did not either. You do have to be careful on the boards (like you have to be with Gov), be open to the good and keep a wary eye out for the less than good.

While I understand and accept your reasoned opinion on this please stick around, hear out the whole concept/goals, please make comments along the way and I welcome your input as to whether it is a final go/no go. As I said earlier, at this point the exercise is just to determine how many would even consider having a go. That is some way from being even feasible to consider attempting because 3 people w/ $10.00 does not even qualify for further consideration.

Nice to meet you.

 

[gmason06]

Knightskye

Manipulation...

Am I on the Paul Forums or the Giuliani Forums?

Fair enough on your observation. I can appreciate unease about a proposal like this.

For what it is worth doing this type of thing or even considering same is not my standard fare. However, very rarely(I know that's how things get started down the shitter) circumstances lead to considering actions that would normally be well beyond the limit.

 

[peterdn1]

I trade on intrade and do follow Ron Paul's campaign closely. Ron Paul has had a media blackout which has been and continues to be disgraceful. Had Dr. Paul received reasonable and fair coverage this nomination process would look quite different than it does currently.

I just bought some of Ron Paul's nomination contract and will hang onto it, although I have little optimism of it paying off. I'm currently betting on Romney in Florida but would encourage all Ron Paul supporters to stick by their candidate (McCain or Romney-they are the same thing). Regards and good luck.

 

[gmason06]

Basics If Considering Participation

1. Go to INTRADE.com to learn more about how their "Prediction Market" works, opening an account, checking what is going on with the RP contract, other candidate contracts, practice trading, etc., lots of good info there.

2. VERY IMPORTANT-If you are interested in opening account, doing this to fund your account will likely save you money/time-

The best way to fund an account is by credit card(there are other options but they take time and/or have added cost).

Because:

INTRADE is in Ireland

and it is also considered a "gambling" site(like stock markets, etc. are not at their core gambling)

some/many CC companies will reject the charge unless you do this procedure-

Call your CC company ahead of time and have them do a pre-"AUTHORIZATION" for the EXACT amount you want to deposit. example $25.00

This will essentially set aside those funds for an incoming charge from INTRADE for, typically, 24 hours(if there is no charge the authorization will expire)

Your CC company may as who the charge is for if so it is TS.com.

The specific way I recommend doing a CC deposit is:

1. Go to INTRADE and prepare your CC deposit BUT DO NOT HIT SUBMIT YET, just have all the fields filled out.

2. Call your CC company and have them "AUTHORIZE" the EXACT amount you want to deposit.

3. Once your CC company confirms they have set aside/authorized the amount you want to deposit- THEN hit the submit button at INTRADE on the CC deposit info you have already filled out-NOTE: you may want to wait one minute or so between the time your CC company confirms the authorization and when you hit the SUBMIT button. Using this procedure your CC deposit should go through no problem, it is quick and there are no additional costs/delays like wiring or fedexing funds.

LASTLY-

If you are opening an account for RP purposes I strongly recommend you do not make any trades in that market(except perhaps a few contracts to get the feel of things, right now they are around 18 cents each, if you can't afford to make a mistake with 18 cents you should not be doing this) UNTIL we have an opportunity to further discuss our approach.

If you were just interested in markets/INTRADE have fun it is a relatively low cost/risk way to study market behavior.


ANY questions ask here.

 

[bp2519]

I bought into RP at 3.5 for Pres and 6 for republican nomination for over a grand. So much for that...

 

[gmason06]

Please clarify

You bought 1000 contracts or you bought $1000.00 worth?