Ron Paul's Delegate Strategy II: The Ground War

[kathy88]

http://www.nolanchart.com/article9509-ron-pauls-delegate-strategy-ii-the-ground-war.html

Yeah, it's biased. So what?

While media attention stays fixed on the air war, the GOP is paying more attention to this other front, where it's still a three-man race.

 

[sailingaway]

Not biased at all. It didn't even mention the party rule breaking on appointing PCOs and shutting over 1000 voters out of the caucuses in King county where it so happens Ron isn't doing as well.

 

[MRoberts]

Yeah, it's biased. So what?

Biased is fine. Not based in reality is another. The <1144 plan basically hinges on Romney getting virtually ZERO unbound delegates, and ZERO super delegates. Neither of which will happen. If anything, it will be Santorum who finishes with fewer delegates than he "earned" via the popular votes.

Counting on something with an infinitesimal likelihood of happening is simply a bad strategy.

Then again, there were people on this very site that still INSISTED in July 2008 that Ron Paul would be the GOP nominee and not McCain.

 

[youaredangerous]

This took a gigantic hit today, Romney destroyed in North Dakota.

 

[JasonM]

Biased is fine. Not based in reality is another. The <1144 plan basically hinges on Romney getting virtually ZERO unbound delegates, and ZERO super delegates. Neither of which will happen. If anything, it will be Santorum who finishes with fewer delegates than he "earned" via the popular votes.

Counting on something with an infinitesimal likelihood of happening is simply a bad strategy.

Then again, there were people on this very site that still INSISTED in July 2008 that Ron Paul would be the GOP nominee and not McCain.

I know exactly what you mean. It's one thing to be optimistic, it's quite another to be so optimistic as to completely lose touch with reality. We have to know when to realize when it is "game over" and it's time to switch gears to something that will continue to benefit us. We have the advantage of being a movement instead of being a mere campaign, we just have to build on that now. When someone reaches that magic number, give or take a couple hundred (super delegates and all that), it's effectively over for the campaign and it's time to go back to "GOP party infrastructure takeover" mode and redirect our efforts towards getting liberty candidates elected.

 

[DanConway]

Biased is fine. Not based in reality is another. The <1144 plan basically hinges on Romney getting virtually ZERO unbound delegates, and ZERO super delegates. Neither of which will happen. If anything, it will be Santorum who finishes with fewer delegates than he "earned" via the popular votes.

Counting on something with an infinitesimal likelihood of happening is simply a bad strategy.

Then again, there were people on this very site that still INSISTED in July 2008 that Ron Paul would be the GOP nominee and not McCain.

What you say is true...but "there never was much hope, just a fool's hope." Anything we could do, anything we can do, was only going to give us a small chance of success. Expecting to win by a third-party run is even more of a fool's hope.

Even so, Romney will not have anything wrapped up until the end, and many things can happen between now and then.

If you're in a state that has yet to vote, coordinate with others if you can and work to deliver your precinct, town, or congressional district for Ron Paul. Get involved in the local GOP and bring in other Paul supporters. Support other liberty-minded candidates. All these things further the cause of human liberty in the United States of America.

 

[Badger Paul]

"If anything, it will be Santorum who finishes with fewer delegates than he "earned" via the popular votes."

And that's exactly what happened in North Dakota. The person who finished third in the straw poll vote walked away with 20 of the state's 28 delegates.

I'm starting to think we're going too see this happen again and again and again this spring. I'm starting to wonder if the non-major party route is more viable.

 

[JasonM]

"If anything, it will be Santorum who finishes with fewer delegates than he "earned" via the popular votes."

And that's exactly what happened in North Dakota. The person who finished third in the straw poll vote walked away with 20 of the state's 28 delegates.

I'm starting to think we're going too see this happen again and again and again this spring. I'm starting to wonder if the non-major party route is more viable.

Too bad that number will never be altered in the CNN tally. 4 years from now, people will look back at North Dakota's results and (unless they are a hyper activist like us), they will never know that the recorded number is in fact inaccurate. =/

 

[PolicyReader]

Biased is fine. Not based in reality is another. The <1144 plan basically hinges on Romney getting virtually ZERO unbound delegates, and ZERO super delegates. Neither of which will happen. If anything, it will be Santorum who finishes with fewer delegates than he "earned" via the popular votes.

Counting on something with an infinitesimal likelihood of happening is simply a bad strategy.

Then again, there were people on this very site that still INSISTED in July 2008 that Ron Paul would be the GOP nominee and not McCain.

I'm not sure I agree with the math of your statements but rather than debate the point at this juncture I'll just post the current count and anyone can weigh what they'd like from the tally.

I'm tired of seeing the media put up blatantly wrong delegate counts, so I figured its time that this forum begin their own, accurate, delegate count. On top of that, people on this forum often ask questions about delegates, so hopefully I can clear things up here.

The key difference between this count, and the thing you see on FOX or CNN is that here, i've left the unbound delegates as unbound. Most of the MSM will award the unbound delegate proportionally simply because no one knows, and putting up 'unbound' on the tv screen would confuse 99% of the population.

So, here, instead of guessing, i've left the unbound as unbound. Mods can sticky this if they choose.


Let's begin

Early Contests

Iowa


Number of delegates: 28 total (25 tied to January 3 caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 25 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
County Conventions: March 10th
State Convention: April 21st

Results:

Unbound: 25

New Hampshire

Number of delegates: 12 total (All 12 tied to January 10 primary)
Delegate Allocation: All 12 awarded proportionally according to January 10th primary

Results:

Romney: 9
Paul: 3
Unbound (from huntsman): 2

South Carolina

Number of delegates: 25 total (reduced from 50 via RNC penalty)
Delegate Allocation: 14 delegates given to winner of each of the 7 congressional districts. 11 at large delegates given to winner

Results:

Gingrich: 23
Romney:2

Florida

Number of Delegates: 50 total (reduced from 99 due to RNC penalty)
Delegate Allocation: Winner take all

Results:

Romney: 50

FEBRUARY-PRE-SUPER TUESDAY
Nevada

Number of Delegates: 28 total
Delegate Allocation: All 28 awarded proportionally

Results:

Romney: 14
Gingrich: 6
Paul: 5
Santorum: 3

Minnesota


Number of Delegates: 40 total (37 tied to February 7 caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 37 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
County Conventions: February 17th-March 31st
Congressional District Conventions: April 14th-April 21st
State Conventions: May 4th-May 5th

Results:

Unboud: 34
Santorum: 2
Paul: 1

Colorado

Number of Delegates: 36 total (33 tied to February 7 caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 33 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
District Caucuses: March 29th-April 13th (Distict Caucuses choose the 21 National Convention Delegates (3 in each of Colorado's 7 Congression Districts) along with the district's delegates to the Colorado State Republican Convention)
State convention: April 14th (State convention selects the remaining 12 delegates)

Results:

Unbound: 33

Maine
Number of delegates:24 total (21 tied to caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 21 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
State Convention: May 5th-6th (6 delegates elected from the 2 congressional districts, 15 at large delegates awarded)

Results:

Unbound: 21

Michigan
Delegate total: 30 total (Penalized 30 delegates because of RNC rules
Delegate allocation: 2 at large, 28 awarded to winner of the 14 congressional districts

Results:

Romney: 16
Santorum: 14

Arizona
Delegate total: 29 (Penalized 29 delegates because of RNC rules)
Delegate allocation: Winner take all

Results:

Romney: 29

Wyoming
Delegate total: 29 total delegates (26 tied to caucus process, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: 12 awarded by 12 counties (others provide alternates), 14 awarded at state convention
County convention: March 6th-10th (Elect delegates to the national convention, each county provides either an alternate or actual delegate)
State convention: April 12th-14th (remaining 14 delegates chosen for National Convention)

Results:


Romney: 8
Santorum:2
Paul:1
Undeclared: 1
Unbound:14

Washington
Delegate total: 43 total delegates (40 delegates tied to March 3 caucuses; 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: All 40 unbound, awarded at county/state convention
County Convention: April 17th-21st
State Convention: May 30th- June 2nd

Results

Unbound: 40

SUPER TUESDAY

Alaska
Delegate total: 27 total delegates (24 delegates tied to March 6 caucuses; 3 Unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: 27 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 11 bonus
Town Conventions: April
State Convention: April 26-28

Romney: 8
Santorum:8
Paul: 6
Gingrich: 2


Georgia
Delegate total: 76 total delegates; all tied to March 6 primary
Delegate allocation: 10 base at-large / 42 re: 14 congressional districts / 3 party / 21 bonus
Congressional Convention: April 14th
State Convention: May 18th- 19th

Results

Gingrich: 52
Romney: 21
Santorum: 3

Idaho
Delegate total: 32 total delegates; all tied to March 6 primary
Delegate allocation: 10 base at-large / 6 re: 2 congressional districts / 3 party / 13 bonus (winner take all if 50% threshold is reached)
State Convention: June 21st- 23rd

Results

Romney: 32

Massachusetts
Delegate total: 41 total delegates (38 delegates tied to March 6 primary, 3 Unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: 10 base at-large / 27 re: 9 congressional districts / 3 party / 1 bonus
Congressional Convention: April 28th (district delegates selected here)
State Convention: June 15th (at large delegates selected here)

Results

Romney: 38

North Dakota
Delegate total: 28 total delegates; All delegates tied to caucuses
Delegate allocation: Delegates selected at state convention
State Convention: March 30-April 1

Results

Unbound: 28

Ohio
Delegate total: 66 total delegates (63 tied to the March 6 primary, 3 Unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: 66 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 48 re: 16 congressional districts / 3 party / 5 bonus (NOTE: Rick Santorum did NOT file a slate of delegate candidates in CDs 6, 9, and 13)

Results

Romney: 38
Santorum: 21
Undeclared: 4 (from counties santorum won, but has no delegates for)

Oklahoma
Delegate total: 43 total delegates (40 delegates tied to the March 6 primary, 3 Unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: 43 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 15 re: 5 congressional districts / 3 party / 15 bonus
Congressional Convention: March 31-April 14
State Convention: May 11-May 12

Results

Santorum: 14
Romney: 13
Gingrich: 13

Tennessee
Delegate total: 58 total delegates (55 delegates tied to the March 6 primary; 3 Unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: 58 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 27 re: 9 congressional districts / 3 party / 18 bonus
State Convention: April 7th (14 at large delegates are awarded)

Results

Santorum: 29
Romney: 16
Gingrich: 10

Virginia
Delegate total: 49 total delegates; 46 delegates tied to the March 6 primary; 3 Unpledged RNC delegates.
Delegate allocation: 49 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 33 re: 11 congressional districts / 3 party / 3 bonus
Congressional Conventions: May 11th-May 26th
State Convention: June 26th (13 at large delegates are elected here, all are bound according to primary results)

Romney: 43
Paul:3

Vermont
Delegate total: 17 total delegates; all tied to March 6 primary.
Delegate allocation: 17 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 1 bonus
Town Conventions: April
State Convention: May 19th

Results


Romney: 9
Paul:4
Santorum: 4


March Contests

Kansas
Delegate total: All 40 delegates tied to March 10 caucuses
Delegate allocation: 40 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 12 re: 4 congressional districts / 3 party / 15 bonus
Congressional District Conventions: March 30-April 24 (tentative date)
State Convention: April 24-July 1 (tentative date)

Results


Santorum: 33
Romney: 7

Guam
Delegate total: 9 total delegates (6 delegates tied to March 10 caucuses, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 9 total delegates - 6 base at-large / 3 party

Results


Romney: 6 (technically unbound, but each delegate was a confirmed Romney supporter)

Northern Marianas Islands
Delegate total: 9 total delegates (6 delegates tied to March 10 caucuses, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 9 total delegates - 6 base at-large / 3 party

Results


Romney: 6 (technically unbound, but each delegate was a confirmed Romney supporter)

US Virgin Islands
Delegate total: 9 total delegates (6 delegates tied to March 10 caucuses, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 9 total delegates - 6 base at-large / 3 party

Results


Romney: 4
Paul: 1
Uncommitted: 1

Alabama
Delegate total: 50 delegates (47 delegates tied to March 13 primary, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 50 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 21 re: 7 congressional districts / 3 party / 16 bonus

Results


Santorum: 21
Gingrich: 14
Romney: 12

Mississippi
Delegate total: 40 delegates (37 delegates tied to March 13 primary, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 40 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 12 re: 4 congressional districts / 3 party / 15 bonus

Results


Santorum: 13
Gingrich: 12
Romney: 12

Hawaii
Delegate total: 20 delegates (17 delegates tied to March 13 caucus, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 20 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 6 re: 2 congressional districts / 3 party / 1 bonus

Results


Romney: 9
Santorum: 5
Paul: 3

American Samoa
Delegate total: 9 delegates (6 delegates tied to March 13 caucus, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 9 total delegates - 6 base at-large / 3 party

Results


Romney: 6

Puerto Rico
Delegate total: 23 delegates (20 delegates tied to March 18 primary, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 23 total delegates - 20 base at-large / 3 party


Results


Romney: 20

Illinois
Delegate total: 69 delegates (66 delegates tied to March 20 primary, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 69 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 54 re: 18 congressional districts / 3 party / 2 bonus
State Convention: June 9th (12 delegates (10 at large, 2 bonus) are selected here and are UNBOUND at the convention)

Results


Romney: 42
Santorum: 12
Unbound: 12

Louisiana
Delegate total: 46 delegates (20 delegates tied to March 24 primary, 23 tied to caucuses on June 2nd, 3 RNC)
Delegate allocation: 46 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 18 re: 6 congressional districts / 3 party / 15 bonus
Results


Santorum: 10
Romney: 5
Uncommitted: 5




RNC "super-delegates"



Romney:32
Gingrich: 2
Santorum:2
Paul: 1


Totals through March 26th

Total so far: 1,082 (1,144 needed to win)

Romney: 505
Unbound: 214
Santorum: 198
Gingrich: 134
Paul: 28
Uncommitted: 10

Total delegates remaining: 1204/2286 (53%)