The State delegations have been set since before the Congressional District level conventions, at the BPOU level conventions, which in some cases are County conventions, other cases are State Senate district or State House district conventions. Those BPOU conventions elected dels to both CDs and State; sometimes in just one vote so the delegations are identical; in other BPOUs two separate votes were conducted and the state delegation is different than the cd delegation to some degree. The BPOU next door to mine elected 10/17 Paul to CD but only 5/17 Paul to state for example, though more recent developments there may have a good number of the non-Paul dels not showing up. In that BPOU the state vote came first, and the much stronger CD results may indicate that our people did a better job of hanging around to the end. But that is one turbulent BPOU and there may be more to it than who left and who didn't.
While I have a very good idea of our strength at State on paper, everything comes down to who shows up and who doesn't show up; the far northern reaches of the state are not our strongholds so that may help bolster our percentages to some degree; Santorum suspending his campaign can't hurt either unless it puts the idea in some of our people's heads that they therefore don't need to show up either, we need max turnout to be in majority, it's not automatic. Majority of course ensures against unfriendly rules passage as well as our ability to shut down any attempt to bind the 13 state-selected delegates. Bills of course needs 60% for endorsement and we must assume that not every Paul supporter is a Bills supporter, the other two candidates have their supporters in some smaller number within our group despite Dr. Paul's endorsement. Conversely Bills has his supporters outside our group, so that may cancel out but I'm not expecting a single-ballot endorsement.
that blatant ?
