Ron Paul will Defeat Romney in Virginia

[Krugerrand]

Virginia (primary) Proportional 15% Threshold, if >50% Winner Take All. 49 delegates total. Primary is OPEN.

Virginia is 3 delegates to each of its 11 congressional districts for a total of 33. 13 go to whomever wins the majority leaving 3 uncommitted. Any candidate taking > 50% takes all 49.

I don't believe that to be correct. It looks like you get to keep your 3 per congressional district no matter what:

Ok .. here are the rules:
http://rpv.org/sites/default/files/VA Delegate Allocation Process_Approved7-16-11_0.pdf
as found here:
http://rpv.org/node/910

The candidate who receives the most votes, as certified by the Virginia State Board of Elections, in each Congressional District will win all of the Delegates and Alternate Delegates from that specific Congressional District. Additionally, a presidential candidate, who receives at least 50.001% of the statewide vote, as certified by the Virginia State Board of Elections, will be awarded all of Virginia’s At-Large Delegates and Alternate Delegates.

Some of the delegates that are elected based on the results in each district. Plus, there are at-large delegates that go to the winner of the 50%.

So if Ron Paul gets over 50%, he gets all of the at-large delegates, plus he get the delegates for each district that he won. If he loses in a district here or there, Romney gets those delegates.

 

[LanceK37]

Open primary, so Democrats will love sinking Romney.

The Democrat turnout for these has been quite low.

 

[LanceK37]

I know you all like to see positive media, but he gives no reasoning or facts to support his assertions. I'm sure this is spin of some sort, possibly pro-Gingrich spin.

I agree, there's no evidence that Virginia doesn't like Romney.

 

[69360]

I agree, there's no evidence that Virginia doesn't like Romney.

Unfortunately Romney loves war just enough for the neocons and loves Jesus just enough for the socons.

 

[iamse7en]

Virginia is for ⅃OVƎRS?

 

[Sarge]

The more I think about the comments, that Newt and Rick might have their people vote for Ron, I think they might be right.

If Newt were to win Florida, he would want to make sure Mitt doesn't win VA. Both FL and VA have about the same number of delegates at stake, so Newt wouldn't want Mitt to get the VA delegates if Mitt wins the FL delegates.

 

[thoughtomator]

We're probably going to see a deep split between Northern VA and the rest of the state.

 

[jason43]

I'm in Va and Pauls support is strong here. I wear my RP shirts all the time and get stopped and complemented regularly. Most mf my friends are voting for him and they are not intensively political or active on the forums or anything. I think he will do quite well without santorum or gingrichs "supporters".

 

[Simple]

I'm in Virginia and I agree, there will be a segment of the population voting for Ron Paul as a protest vote because they don't want to vote for Romney.

 

[Article V]

Virginia is for ⅃OVƎRS?

F*cking hilarious!

 

[Todd]

the problem is that to some extent VA is a suburb of DC. They LIKE the status quo, generally.

You speak the truth. Northern Virginia and Tidewater are BIG parts of the MIC. I think they represent a huge proportion of voting block. Gonna be a hard nut to crack. Ron must get the rural districts.

 

[pcaharrier]

The only question that remains unanswered for me is whether social conservatives (and whoever else belongs in the "anyone but Romney" crowd) will put aside their qualms about Ron Paul long enough to do something about their distaste for Romney. Knowing a few people in Virginia who fit that description, I'm doubtful.

These are the same people who will say "Well, we must vote for whoever the Republican nominee even if we don't like him because we must defeat Obama at all costs." I have my doubts about whether they will apply that same logic in this situation and conclude that "I might not like everything about Ron Paul, but this might be our last chance to stop Romney from making this a blowout."

Color me very cautious, I suppose. If the Paul campaign can pull it off though, I probably won't sleep for at least three days.

 

[thoughtomator]

Keep in mind there are a lot of bigtime-shafted middle class voters even in NoVA - my modest-sized town (pop 55k, suburban) mustered hundreds to its local Tea Party way back in April 2009.

If you haven't seen Elizabeth Warren's seminal work "The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class", you really ought to. (Put aside that she's a socialist, this particular work is objectively a masterpiece no matter who authored it.)



These kind of stresses are what the middle class is really suffering from. We haven't yet seen a strong middle-class state vote yet, NH is the closest so far.

For example, I live in a townhouse development where every last person bought their units within a few months of the very top of the bubble, in 2005-6. All of these people got ripped off by the same company - Countrywide, now owned by Bank of America. Almost all have some form of student debt also weighing them down, if not for themselves then for their kids. They get hammered by taxes and hammered again by medical insurance. They send their kids to school and the kids come back having learned nothing of value.

These people have a lot of beefs with the present system, I believe a very large number of people fit this description, and it is extremely fertile ground for Paul conversions.

 

[Mordan]

i have already shouted many times

VA is ALL that matters since we didn't win IOWA. You want electability for California and Texas?

Beat Romney in Virginia.
Beat Romney in Virginia.
Beat Romney in Virginia.

Virginia should be easier than Nevada.

 

[Cyberbrain]

Like almost every Virginia election it'll probably depend on turnout in northern VA. That'll be a Romney stronghold so the less that come out to vote there the better Paul's chances to win. Places to watch will probably be Richmond and Norfolk and how many show up for Ron in the college towns.

I think VA can be won if he gets momentum coming into Super Tuesday, but I wouldn't say it's in the box for him just yet. I'll be totally thrilled if he gets good numbers in southwest VA where I've been campaigning. =D

 

[eduardo89]

If Gingrich is still in the race by then Ron wil win. Gingrich's voters will not vote Romney and most of them don't see Ron as a viable candidate so they'll see it as giving newt an advantage if Ron wins.