About the race: Its really tricky. Obviously, Trump will get the most delegates. But its well possible that he wont get the majority of them. So that is at the moment my best prediction and that could turn out violently, if the establishment will grab it from him at the convention, which they most certainly can, but then again - what would Trump do after that? Guess what, it won't be boring.
The next month is pretty meager in terms of allocated delegates, but Trump might get the littlest share of them and lose some momentum:
March 22nd:
Utah: Cruz is leading in the only poll conducted recently with a huge margin. Cruz 53%, Kasich 29%, Trump 11%. If Cruz manages the 50% threshold, its winner-take-all 40 delegates for him.
American Samoa: A few GOP members will join in a pub, drink a few beer and determine the AS delegation, so no one knows what will happen there. As far as I get it there will be no preference vote at all, and the delegates will be unbound.
April 1st-3rd: North Dakota GOP Convention: A bit like American Samoa
There was no preference vote in ND, all delegates will be determined at the state convention and will be truely unbound in all aspects. Very likely non-Trump territory.
April 5th: Wisconsin primary: K, that could be Trumps only day in the month - or not. There hasnt been any poll since over a month. Back then, they were slightly in favor of Trump, but really not by much with 6 candidates in the race. Its mostly winner take all (WTA) state, except that CD delegates are WTA to district results, not to statewide results.
April 9th: Colorado convention: Like AS and ND, CO holds no preferential vote. Delegates are directly elected at the convention and get bound to the candidates they pledge to before they get elected (in case they do, they can also run as uncommitted). Surely non-Trump territory.
And thats it until April 19th - the NY primary which Trump will win almost certainly.
(P.S.: Still waiting on final Missouri results....)
