The ratio of new donors to repeat donors (about 40% and INCREASING) means that his support is growing and growing. But, more importantly, I think it means that people are less and less willing to give more if they've already given once, twice, or five times (like myself, my father, grandfather, and army buddies)--unless he is going to go iNDY. I just can't afford it. But I could make myself afford another 500 or even way more if he went iNDY because I know he could win! (don't give me crap--I gave over $1,000 in Q4, as well as about 20-30 hours of canvassing and calling--I know not enough time, but I would do 3 times that when he declared iNDY because I have a much less demanding schedule now)
my dad said he'd donate another 500 to Paul (IF he announces 3rd party) (he donated 200 on Dec. 16th--but that was when it seemed like he REALLY could maybe, possibly win the Nom. I would donate 500 the day he declares (even though it will hurt financially), whereas I can't afford to give anymore (I gave just over a 1,100 in Q4 to the cause--so shut up) for his Republican run; and gramps would probably wager another 1776.00
The 2nd and 3rd tier, broader-base of supporters aren't (many or most of them) going to donate MORE--if they already have once--because TO THEM it is obvious or at least nearly certain that he's not going to get the Nom from the Republican party (I'm not saying I believe that--but they DO). However, they would be very willing and enthusiastic about supporting him in an iNDEPENDENT run.