Ron Paul sees big jump on Intrade

[sailingaway]

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

15% but they can just use methodologies specifically designed (within 'acceptable parameters') to underestimate his support. even so, they don't want him running third party.

But he's not going to anyhow. That he has this level of support even AGAINST the nominee does make them take him more seriously, though.

 

[roughridersten]

I think I have more respect for Intrade than some here. In my opinion, it is much less manipulable that some "random sample" poll. The fact is, with Intrade, if you disagree with a prediction, you can put your money where your mouth is. Obviously it isn't perfect, and it isn't always right. But the idea is that if someone has insider info, they are likely to use self interest to make money off that info. In doing so, they move the market in the correct direction, and we all see this as an indication that something will happen. Back in the day they had markets for the next major terrorist attack. I believe the government made them take it down (probably out of fear it would be more accurate than them).

I think the 3 way poll means he is more likely to win the nomination because eventually the republicans will come to their senses (or at least there is a greater likelihood that they will).

 

[Fredom101]

Intrade is much more important than many realize. It was HIGHLY accurate in 08. I remember, I didn't buy into it because they had Paul in 5th with really huge odds to win it. But, it turned out to be accurate, just like the polls that I thought were BS.

So, I would expect to see RP pick up a bit in the polls. Will the MSM cover it? HELL no!

 

[Fredom101]

15% but they can just use methodologies specifically designed (within 'acceptable parameters') to underestimate his support. even so, they don't want him running third party.

But he's not going to anyhow. That he has this level of support even AGAINST the nominee does make them take him more seriously, though.

IF he's clearly not going to win say after Super Tuesday, it would be ridiculous for him to NOT run independent. At that point, who cares how many rules are stacked against independents?

 

[Liberty74]

IF he's clearly not going to win say after Super Tuesday, it would be ridiculous for him to NOT run independent. At that point, who cares how many rules are stacked against independents?

I emailed Paul begging him to run as an Independent before he announced to run as a Republican. RP is simply a different breed than all the scumbag fake conservatives running like Romney, Gingrich, Perry, etc. RP is the real deal and with the economic situation and people in general being anti-establishment and anti-status quo, what better way for RP to run? I can say I was ignored...

But I agree with you, if there is nothing going our way after Super Tuesday, revamp and launch RP as the Independent. Don't think for one second he has not thought about it people. If RP doesn't, someone else WILL like Trump, Palin or god knows who will seek the Independent ticket.

18% is a good starting point...

 

[TwoJ]

Looks like it went back down some today :\

 

[PastaRocket848]

IF he's clearly not going to win say after Super Tuesday, it would be ridiculous for him to NOT run independent. At that point, who cares how many rules are stacked against independents?

if he waits until super tuesday he will have already been subject to sore loser laws in the states that he contested which have them. he'd be much better off to make an assessment after iowa/nh. if we're not moving up by then, we're not going to.