Ron Paul sees big jump on Intrade

[roughridersten]

Ron Paul's chance of getting the Republican nomination had been stagnated between 2-3% for weeks. Starting yesterday, Ron Paul's chance has risen sharply on strong trading volume and now sits at 5.6%. He has now leapfrogged Cain for getting the nomination.

My guess is that the first surge corresponds with the information about three way poll between Obama, Romney, and Paul.

During the last two days, Romney and Perry have seen their numbers drop, while Gingrich and Cain have held steady.



http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=656777

Meanwhile, Paul is now third behind Obama and Romney to win the general election (ahead of Perry and Gingrich).

 

[roughridersten]

And now I see the other thread. Sorry for the repost.

 

[sailingaway]

I think it was the three way poll, as well.

Let's put it this way. Romney may get the nomination with the establishment bias and inertia on his side, but if he LEFT the GOP and ran third party, he wouldn't get anything like the 18% the MSNBC poll gave Ron in that scenario. If Ron gets the nomination, he will win the general, imho.

 

[R3volutionJedi]

If Ron gets the nomination, he will win the general, imho.

YEA

 

[rp08orbust]

I think it was the three way poll, as well.

Why would a poll showing Ron Paul doing well as an independent (which he has essentially ruled out) cause people to bet on him winning the Republican nomination?

I'm hoping for something bigger, like maybe PPP sitting on a new NH poll showing Ron surging there or something.

 

[mwkaufman]

Taking chance at presidency divided by chance at nomination on Intrade, you can see how various candidates would do in the general election according to Intrade.

74% Paul
55% Huntsman
49% Romney
48% Cain
48% Gingrich
34% Perry

Surprised Cain and Gingrich do so well relative to Romney.

 

[sailingaway]

Why would a poll showing Ron Paul doing well as an independent (which he has essentially ruled out) cause people to bet on him winning the Republican nomination?

I'm hoping for something bigger, like maybe PPP sitting on a new NH poll showing Ron surging there or something.

Because people DON'T vote for third party and the margins are usually 3% or 4%, not 18%. That was a VERY high number for such things. And it is PERSONAL power to Ron, nontransferable.

 

[69360]

I think it was the three way poll, as well.

Let's put it this way. Romney may get the nomination with the establishment bias and inertia on his side, but if he LEFT the GOP and ran third party, he wouldn't get anything like the 18% the MSNBC poll gave Ron in that scenario. If Ron gets the nomination, he will win the general, imho.

And if he doesn't get the nomination, we get Obama again.

Why can't the GOP see that? They can't win without us. There is no chance in hell of it.

 

[trey4sports]

Why would a poll showing Ron Paul doing well as an independent (which he has essentially ruled out) cause people to bet on him winning the Republican nomination?

I'm hoping for something bigger, like maybe PPP sitting on a new NH poll showing Ron surging there or something.

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

 

[1836]

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

Markets are incredible and Intrade has, time and time again, proven its worth in predicting outcomes with a surprising degree of accuracy!

I would say our rising on Intrade in a significant way is far more important than some poll showing us up several points. Not because people notice it, but because we know what it means.

 

[69360]

Because people DON'T vote for third party and the margins are usually 3% or 4%, not 18%. That was a VERY high number for such things. And it is PERSONAL power to Ron, nontransferable.

They voted for Perot. Ron could be more popular that Perot. If the euro fails and we bang the debt ceiling causing another congressional impasse, Ron's chances 3rd party skyrocket. That could happen simultaneously actually. I know we aren't supposed to talk about it, but it's true.

 

[rp08orbust]

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

I was pretty impressed with it leading up to the Ames straw poll.

 

[InTradePro]

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

Hey! Some of us have feelings you know

 

[trey4sports]

I was pretty impressed with it leading up to the Ames straw poll.

as was I. The day OF the Ames Straw Poll I lost a lot of confidence in Intrade. The market ended up shifting to about 80/15 Bachmann over Paul and yet they were only separated by 150 votes out of of 17,000 total. The market seemed pretty superficial. It basically correlated with how the media was calling the straw poll.

 

[Elwar]

If I had money I would bet against Ron Paul winning with every penny.

If he wins, oh well...I lose all of my money but I have a bright future ahead of me with much more opportunity to make money.

If he loses...that sucks...we are all screwed, but at least I have a few more percent in cash that I can use to get the hell out of the U.S.

 

[sailingaway]

They voted for Perot. Ron could be more popular that Perot. If the euro fails and we bang the debt ceiling causing another congressional impasse, Ron's chances 3rd party skyrocket. That could happen simultaneously actually. I know we aren't supposed to talk about it, but it's true.

Yeah, but Perot was the reason the exParty chairs took over the debates and limited who could get in. They never wanted another.

 

[69360]

Yeah, but Perot was the reason the exParty chairs took over the debates and limited who could get in. They never wanted another.

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

 

[rp08orbust]

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

19%

 

[InTradePro]

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

15%, but you can understand it would be a crocked poll, so likely 25% of real voters.

 

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Third party Presidential debate requirements have been set at 15% in three national polls since at least 2000. Lots of room for manipulation, but if anyone could hit that threshold, it would be Ron Paul.