"Ron Paul Secretly Won the Caucuses" by David Weigel (Slate)

[sailingaway]

What about this factor? Super delegates, Dr. Paul has none...... http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

He has one. Just not identified.

 

[sailingaway]

Yes, that is odd. I imagine, as some others have suggested, that the RNC will try to pull something at the convention, or prior to the convention they will rewrite the rules in some way. There are not oblivious to what's happening, even if the public and most of the media are.

Yeah, and the AP is pretending delegates are already awarded which is so clearly untrue...

But that would mean the GOP wrote the election off. Ron wouldn't HAVE to run third party.

 

[Ekrub]

That would be RNC Suicide. RP would 3rd party them into the gutter with that sort of treatment on a national stage.

That's why RP doesn't rule out a third party. If they change the rules to screw us over, they can't point to an interview and say "look he lied to everyone, don't vote for him"

 

[Taco John]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

Because it's a long forgotten aspect of our system after the days of media and the Beauty Contest primary. Television has picked our winner over the last half dozen decades. And in those days there haven't been insurgent campaigns to challenge the establishment because there hasn't been a communication medium for them to make it work.

 

[TER]

We must win Maine. We need a Moneybomb desperately!

 

[TER]

Campaign in Maine. We need a win in Maine!!!

 

[bluesc]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

Romney doesn't care about the delegates. He bulldozes through a state, wins the vote and leaves it in a mess. Paul supporters rise from the rubble and become the actual delegates awarded.

For Romney it's about momentum leading into the huge primary states - places where we most likely can't pull something like this off. Newt and Santorum will be more cautious about things like this since their strategy isn't based on rolling through and locking up the nomination quickly. It takes real organization, a good grassroots, and some talent to pull something like this off successfully. I'm confident Doug Wead is contributing.

 

[TER]

This wasnt planned for. The elite are panicking. This was not in the plans at all!

The cry has grown stronger, the words heard more clearly, that it's no one but Doctor Ron Paul!

 

[RonPaulFever]

I still can't believe he's polling 2nd nationally.....my God....there is hope!

 

[PolicyReader]

We need to inform people of what lies ahead for precinct delegates. I know when I went to the next level in Texas they had a nominating committee for who they were going to send to the state convention. A lot of people didn't know they took application before the county convention. So if your were new and unorganized you will get locked out so that insiders can go. The Paul delegates need to organize and push through their own slate.

Quoted for truth.
Learn the rules in your area, network beforehand so you know who the Ron Paul delegates are without identifying yourself/each other at the convention(s) and Learn Robers Rules of Order

 

[lordindra3]

I TOLD YOU SANTORUM WINNING WAS A BLESSING IN DISGUISE! But no, everybody else was sour-pussing on me and saying how bad it was... Its good because the biggest way we lose with current standing is what happened in 08 and that is that McCain pretty much sweeps the entire country and there is no chance to even make it to the convention. Of course nothing is better than Paul winning states to boot, but Im just playing the cards we currently have.

 

[abruzz0]

AMAZING JOB!!!!!!!

 

[TER]

I still can't believe he's polling 2nd nationally.....my God....there is hope!

Ron has to be more specific with how the other candidates share many of the Big Government policies of Obama. He needs to specifically point out instances in which the others, by name, have been on the side of Obama in terms of an over reaching, over intrusive, over taxing federal government. He needs to clearly stand out against the rest of the field. I know he does this, but he needs to continue to improve so by Super Tuesday.

 

[TER]

And I need to go to sleep. Goodnight!

 

[BigByrd47119]

I TOLD YOU SANTORUM WINNING WAS A BLESSING IN DISGUISE! But no, everybody else was sour-pussing on me and saying how bad it was... Its good because the biggest way we lose with current standing is what happened in 08 and that is that McCain pretty much sweeps the entire country and there is no chance to even make it to the convention. Of course nothing is better than Paul winning states to boot, but Im just playing the cards we currently have.

Yea, supporters just want to see a win so it feels like we are winning...even though we already are (maybe/sort of/kind of) winning. If that even made any sense...

 

[Louis Vouid]

This happened 4 years ago too. It is not the big deal people make it out to be. Didn't succeed then and it won't now. People need to stop being so optimistic about things like this and start working to win a damn state!

 

[tbone717]

Ok, for those that don't get this, here is what has happened so far according to what I see on thegreenpapers.com. Bound delegates have been awarded from NH, SC, FL & NV. While NV still has their state convention, their state party rules will bind those delegates proportionally based on the caucus results.

So that would make the count as follows: Romney 73, Newt 29, Paul 8, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2

The delegates from IA, MN, & CO total 104 have not yet been awarded. So Paul could have 104 of those, or he could have 10 of those. We just do not know at this time. IA and MN delegates are not bound, CO delegates are a hybrid of being bound and unbound from what I gather (honestly I read the state rules twice and I am still not 100% sure of it)

Moving forward there are still 1644 bound delegates and 423 unbound delegates to be awarded. Which means that any of the four remaining candidates can secure enough bound delegates to win the nomination outright.

 

[bluesc]

Ok, for those that don't get this, here is what has happened so far according to what I see on thegreenpapers.com. Bound delegates have been awarded from NH, SC, FL & NV. While NV still has their state convention, their state party rules will bind those delegates proportionally based on the caucus results.

So that would make the count as follows: Romney 73, Newt 29, Paul 8, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2

The delegates from IA, MN, & CO total 104 have not yet been awarded. So Paul could have 104 of those, or he could have 10 of those. We just do not know at this time. IA and MN delegates are not bound, CO delegates are a hybrid of being bound and unbound from what I gather (honestly I read the state rules twice and I am still not 100% sure of it)

Moving forward there are still 1644 bound delegates and 423 unbound delegates to be awarded. Which means that any of the four remaining candidates can secure enough bound delegates to win the nomination outright.

One thing about the Nevada delegates. State rules dictate the bound/unbound rules, correct? So, when the delegates meet for the state convention, let's assume we have a majority of delegates, some of which are standing for other candidates.. Surely they can introduce a rule to release those delegates and make them unbound?

 

[splanky]

Ok, for those that don't get this, here is what has happened so far according to what I see on thegreenpapers.com. Bound delegates have been awarded from NH, SC, FL & NV. While NV still has their state convention, their state party rules will bind those delegates proportionally based on the caucus results.

So that would make the count as follows: Romney 73, Newt 29, Paul 8, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2

The delegates from IA, MN, & CO total 104 have not yet been awarded. So Paul could have 104 of those, or he could have 10 of those. We just do not know at this time. IA and MN delegates are not bound, CO delegates are a hybrid of being bound and unbound from what I gather (honestly I read the state rules twice and I am still not 100% sure of it)

Moving forward there are still 1644 bound delegates and 423 unbound delegates to be awarded. Which means that any of the four remaining candidates can secure enough bound delegates to win the nomination outright.

This is the information & analysis that ought to be stickied and updated, on its own thread, after every development. It's what I was looking for when I came here days ago and only lucked out that you posted it. Thanks for doing so.

 

[tbone717]

One thing about the Nevada delegates. State rules dictate the bound/unbound rules, correct? So, when the delegates meet for the state convention, let's assume we have a majority of delegates, some of which are standing for other candidates.. Surely they can introduce a rule to release those delegates and make them unbound?

Yeah I think so, I read their rules again and it appears that way. Honestly my head is spinning from reading this stuff.

As far as I see it, we are spending way too much time pondering the implications of what is pretty much a long shot possibility. My guess is that someone will emerge from Super Tuesday as the presumptive nominee, unless Paul can pose a serious challenge and win a few states and make a new contest out of this.