Ron Paul Republican: Ordered By Odds of Success

[da32130]

It is great we have candidates. But in order to know where to put our money and time we need to know who is set up to win.

(Update regarding these comments:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120066&page=2
Supporting local candidates makes sense. However, we also have these mass money bombs:
http://www.libertywarchest.com/
So this can be used as a source of information for people that don't have the time to research all of these candidates but have money to give.)

Considerations:
1) How does the district normally vote (democrat or republican)?
2) Is the seat open (or is there a well funded incumbent)?

here is a further list of considerations:
http://www.rlc.org/?p=FAQ#4263

general list of candidates:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=91673
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates.html

Here is a starter list from most likely to least likely to win. I can update this as people make comments.

(Update: can try to rank based on Funds needed for a win)

1) Ron Paul (Incumbent; $310,000 raised, looking for $400,000) TEXAS DISTRICT 14
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120216
http://www.ronpaulforcongress.com/
Republican challenger: Chris Peden ($43,262 raised??)

2) other candidates with a good chance?


3) Theodore Terbolizard (CA-4th,Primary June 3, 2008)
http://terbocongress.org/
Open Seat
three candidates have sought the Republican nomination including Iraq War Veteran Eric Egland, former Auburn mayor Mike Holmes and Theodore Terbolizard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_4th_congressional_district#2008
2006: R-49.1%, D-45.9%, L-5%
NOTEUI charge

3) Jim Forsythe (NH-Disctrict 1, Primary September 9, 2008, endorsed by Ron Paul)
http://www.jimforsythe.com/
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates2.html
ENDORSED BY RON PAUL
Also, Peter Bearse (NH-Disctrict 1, Primary September 9, 2008)
http://www.peterbearseforcongress.com/
-------
Carol Shea-Porter (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Shea-Porter
2006: Carol Shea-Porter Democratic 100,837 51.31 Jeb Bradley(I) Republican 95,538 48.61
Only in office 2 years.

3) John Mitchel, LtCol, USAF (Ret) (OH-District 7, Primary March 4, 2008)
http://www.reformcongress.com/
Open Seat (had been republican)
Dave Hobson (R-I, stepping down)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Hobson

3) John Wallace (NY-District 20, Primary: Sept. 9, 2008)
NOTE: Wants to Finish Surge and Iraq Conflict
http://www.johnwallaceforcongress.com/
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand
only in office 2 years, normally a republican district

7) Murray Sabrin (Senate NJ) (Funds needed?, has roughly 40k)
http://www.lewrockwell.com/raskin/raskin32.html
http://www.murraysabrin.com/
http://scholaroffreedom.com/
ENDORSED BY RON PAUL
2002 Race for U.S. Senate
o Frank Lautenberg (D), 54%
o Doug Forrester (R), 44%
Republican challengers(Primary June 3, 2008):
Joseph Pennacchio (may not have money)
Anne Evans Estabrook (has money, but may be too liberal)


7) B.J. Lawson (North Carolina's 4th district, already has raised 75k,Primary May 6, 2008)
comment #26 gives background from B.J.:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=94003&page=3
http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Price_(American_politician)
David Price (D)
2006: 65% versus?
competition for Republican nomination?

7) Brent Sanders (5th District of Louisiana,raised 4.5k, goal 300k, Primary: September 06, 2008)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684
comment #145 gives background(has run for office before):
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684&page=15
http://www.joinsanders.com/
Rodney Alexander (R-I, was a Democrat but switched, may run for Senate)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Alexander
68 percent of the vote over Democratic candidate Gloria Williams Hearn

7) Dave Redick (WI-District 2,Primary Sept. 9, 2008)
http://www.forward-usa.org/
Tammy Baldwin (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Baldwin
1998:won with 53%
2000:won with 51%
2002:won with 66%
2004: won with 63%
2006: won with 63%

11) Linda Goldthorpe (MI-1st District)
http://lindagoldthorpe.com/Home.html
Bart Stupak (D-I)
2006:won with 69.4%
2004:won with 65.6%
2002:won with 67.7%
2000:won with 58.5%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bart_Stupak
http://elections.mlive.com/dynamic/...TE=MIGRAELN&SECTION=POLITICS&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

11) Kevin George ($11,964 raised) TEXAS -DISTRICT 4
http://kevingeorgeforcongress.org/home.htm
Republican Challengers (Primary March 4, 2008)
Ralph Moody Hall (Incumbent; $215,933 raised)
Gene Christensen ($87,340 raised)
Joshua Kowert ($0 raised)
Kathy Seei ($54,487 raised)
"George looks to be up against some stiff competition. Ralph Hall used to be a Democrat but in 2004 became a Republican. He's 84 years old but is still running for re-election. Christensen and Seei have also raised large sums. This will be a very tough win for Kevin George. Oh, and for what its worth, Gene Christensen has been endorsed by Chuck Norris."
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120216


11) Vern McKinley (VA-District 10)
http://www.mckinleyforcongress.com/
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=118607 (#3 comment)
Frank Wolf (R-I)
2006: 57%-41% won against Democrat Judy Feder
Wolf has raised $740,297 thus far; McKinley has $16,325
Virginia's Congressional primary is June 10, 2008
Democrats:
Judy Feder ($588,928 raised) or Mike Turner ($60,744 raised)

11) Maryland Congressional Candidates (tough to beat Democrats, all have won the Republican nomination)
based on zadrock's analysis(comment #23), ordered from least liberal to most:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120066&page=3

a)District 2 - Richard Matthews - http://www.richardmatthews.org
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Ruppersberger
Charles Albert Ruppersberger, III
2006: 69.21% beat Jimmy Mathis Republican 30.68%

b)District 4 - Peter James - http://peterjames08.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Wynn
Al Wynn*
2006: 80.67% beat Michael Moshe Starkman Republican 18.64%
*(lost 2008 in primary to Donna Edwards)

b)District 5 - Collins Baliey - http://www.baileyforuscongress.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steny_Hoyer
Steny Hoyer
2004: 68.67% beat Brad Jewitt Republican 29.93%
2006: no republican opponent

b)District 7 - Mike Hargadon - http://hargadonforuscongress.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elijah_Cummings
Elijah_Cummings
2004: 73.38% beat Tony Salazar Republican 26.38%
2006: no republican opponent

11) Dean Santoro for Florida’s 21st District US Congress (Primary: August 26, 2008)
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates.html
www.SantoroForCongress.org
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=119013
Lincoln Rafael Diaz-Balart (R-I)
Beat Frank Gonzalez, Frank got:
2004: 27% as a libertarian
2006: 41% as a Democrat
Democrat/Libertarian:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Gonzalez
In 2006 Diaz-Balart spent $920,000 while Gonzalez spent $16,000, a 58 to 1 ratio

11) Jason Thompson (GA-7th,Primary: July 15, 2008)
http://www.votejasonthompson.us/
John Linder(R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Linder
In 2006, he was re-elected with 70.9% of the vote.

11) Joel Evens (SC-District 1, Primary June 10, 2008)
http://joelevans2008.com/
Henry E Brown, Jr. (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_E._Brown,_Jr.
democrats don't even contest republicans


11) John D. Diamond (OH 15th district, Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.diamondforcongress.com/Home.htm
Open Seat (normally heavily Democrat)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Results,_U.S._Representative_from_Ohio,_15th_District

11) Dave Ryon ((OH 12th district, Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.daveryon.com/
Pat Tiberi (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Tiberi

11) Tom Brinkman (OH 2nd district,Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.gobrinkman.com/
Jean Schmidt (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Schmidt

 

[DirtMcGirt]

bump

 

[Pauliana]

BJ Lawson? NC-4 against David Price, D 10th term 65%

 

[da32130]

BJ Lawson? NC-4 against David Price, D 10th term 65%

updated info on him

 

[da32130]

Added Vern McKinley (VA-District 10)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=118607

 

[da32130]

Switch the order a bit and added:

6) Dean Santoro for Florida’s 21st District US Congress (Primary: August 26, 2008)
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates.html
www.SantoroForCongress.org
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=119013
Lincoln Rafael Diaz-Balart (R-I)
Beat Frank Gonzalez, Frank got:
2004: 27% as a libertarian
2006: 41% as a Democrat
Democrat/Libertarian:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Gonzalez
In 2006 Diaz-Balart spent $920,000 while Gonzalez spent $16,000, a 58 to 1 ratio

 

[Rhys]

Sound kinda like the MSM, don't we? Picking winners and losers?

 

[Tdcci]

Sound kinda like the MSM, don't we? Picking winners and losers?

Yes, but we can't spread our support too thin.

 

[Rhys]

Yes, but we can't spread our support too thin.

brush fires, not bonfires. that's my opinion.

 

[da32130]

brush fires, not bonfires. that's my opinion.

But if we have an excellent chance somewhere we may want to create a bonfire.

 

[Rhys]

But if we have an excellent chance somewhere we may want to create a bonfire.

it's a tempting mistress, but it will lead to collectivism. Also, everyone needs the benefit of the revolution. I'm going to run so the revolution in my area has a campaign to work for... so we can grow and continue to gain experience. I'll need the help, but I, like Ron Paul, maybe wont be the most electable this time... I'll have no chance maybe ever if I can't capitalize on the momentum now, while it's building and buzzing. And it's not about me... it's the message. It's also not about our most electable, it's about the message still. We need the message to be able to grow and foster everywhere it can.

Allow our campaigns to see what can happen. Let us make our own decisions on the grassroots level without trying to force anything. Allow us to use our strength. Our campaigns need to generate local popularity and buz, so I'd hope the Ron Paul people in my area will help me get elected. If they spend their energy on Murry Sabrin in NJ just because he's electable, I wont even run and the message will dwindle and the GOP in my area will move on and my local meetups wont have anything to meetup for.

Now is the time for political action everywhere. I want a congressman from every district in the country, and for that we need to build campaigns every where we can. Yes we can!

 

[da32130]

it's a tempting mistress, but it will lead to collectivism. Also, everyone needs the benefit of the revolution. I'm going to run so the revolution in my area has a campaign to work for... so we can grow and continue to gain experience. I'll need the help, but I, like Ron Paul, maybe wont be the most electable this time... I'll have no chance maybe ever if I can't capitalize on the momentum now, while it's building and buzzing. And it's not about me... it's the message. It's also not about our most electable, it's about the message still. We need the message to be able to grow and foster everywhere it can.

Allow our campaigns to see what can happen. Let us make our own decisions on the grassroots level without trying to force anything. Allow us to use our strength. Our campaigns need to generate local popularity and buz, so I'd hope the Ron Paul people in my area will help me get elected. If they spend their energy on Murry Sabrin in NJ just because he's electable, I wont even run and the message will dwindle and the GOP in my area will move on and my local meetups wont have anything to meetup for.

Now is the time for political action everywhere. I want a congressman from every district in the country, and for that we need to build campaigns every where we can. Yes we can!

Those are good points.

 

[life_boy]

I understand what you're saying. Local areas that have RP candidates running should focus on them. I think the purpose of the thread was to discuss the challenges faced by the campaigns and for those of us who do not have a local candidate to rally behind, where to put some of our money.

On a note of fairness, Sabrin is running for Senate and Senate campaigns usually require far more money than congressional campaigns because of the scope. They are also far more competitive. The more money we can give to Sabrin the better.

 

[da32130]

added info from this link:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120216

 

[VaderM5]

Any chance for those that lose their primary will run as a independent?

 

[zadrock]

My guess is that Matthews has the best shot in MD (District 2 vs. Dutch Ruppersberger). We are so SO Democratic. We might do better to run as Gravel Democrats here. lol

Z

 

[da32130]

My guess is that Matthews has the best shot in MD (District 2 vs. Dutch Ruppersberger). We are so SO Democratic. We might do better to run as Gravel Democrats here. lol

Z

Any reason why?

If their isn't much distinction between each of the MD candidates chances I may just keep them all at the same level.

 

[da32130]

Added:
3) Brent Sanders (raised 4.5k, goal 300k)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684
comment #145 gives background(has run for office before):
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684&page=15
http://www.joinsanders.com/
Rodney Alexander (R-I, was a Democrat but switched, may run for Senate)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Alexander
68 percent of the vote over Democratic candidate Gloria Williams Hearn

 

[da32130]

Added:
3) Theodore Terbolizard (CA-4th)
http://terbocongress.org/
No incumbent
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califor..._district#2008
2006: R-49.1%, D-45.9%, L-5%

 

[life_boy]

Terbolizard has Republican competition. If he can seal the nomination then he could have a very good chance.