Ron Paul on iOS app GOP Unbound

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Hendrik

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Mar 21, 2012
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Check my brand new [still free] iPhone and iPod touch app GOP Unbound on the App Store! I analyze well over 150,000 tweets a day and carve a quite well delegates forecast out of it.

The results are truly stable and I think this is an excellent indicator for the Republican Party unbound delegate vote in an open convention, August 27-30 in Tampa.

One last thing: I'm not making this up! All candidates are treated equally by my analysis, as in screenshots as of mid March you see Paul only 4th. I see it as kind of an experiment and am doing it proper. Next week I'll add charts then you'll get intraday and longer frames. Further it's already got Twitter support so that you can send my delegate forecasts out to the world. Next week also Facebook support for doing some more spin doctoring.

I'd assume that a rising Ron Paul forecast could spin some momentum especially if the app gets some momentum, so you guys spread the word!
And most important: The delegate forecast is for an OPEN CONVENTION, when delegates votes get unbound after first ballot.

Thanks and now download and spread the word - to other forums, FB, Twitter, blogs and wherever !
You are also encouraged to tweet directly from the app!
GOP Unbound
 
I don't possess any iGadgets but will be keeping an eye on this, as support is implemented for more means of dissemination :)
 
Just saw a recent vid on the much more accurate Republican delegate count, nice work. App is on my iPhone as I'm typing this
 
You should explain it better how it works on your site. Do you just count the people that tweet `i´m a delegate for ...` or what?
 
No it's much more simple. I count the name dropping and rely on the pure mass of data available. It's way above 100,000 tweets a day and the pure assumption is that it will show up as delegates. It's impossible to extract positive or negative, sarcastic or ironic intentions from them. Assumption is bottom-line this sentiment reflects the convention floor, AFTER first ballot ! Of course on first ballot the situation is much different as most delegates are bound. But I'm forecasting the UNBOUND situation.

Thanks a lot for your help and support!
 
Love the app!

Love the app! Added it to my Ron Paul App Folder, it's my fourth one, I deleted a crappy one! To keep an eye, I have 1 grinch and 1 mitt app too ... santy doesn't have one as of yet!
 
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Does the app purport to accurately capture the existence of "stealth delegates" or only the results of the caucuses that produce unbound delegates?
 
please share results daily (could be a daily thread), i don't have ios and would love to see thsi stuff
 
Just downloaded the latest update and it looks great. The election dates area day behind though.

I noticed that you posted this in the other thread

Hendrik said:
I don't know but I'll have to do something this week. Yesterday 15 downloads for a free app is just s**t and not worth the efforts. Either I quit distribution and I'll keep the forecast for my private intrade deals or I'll raise the price to 5 bucks. Having no downloads at 5$ certainly feels better than having no downloads at free. Probably public is rating cheap whats free, so I'll not go further with this model while nobody is pushing it.

To me it seems the public is doing well with MSM delegate counts so I'll pull the plug end of week.
Click to expand...

Why would you even want to pull the plug on this app? Just because no one downloaded doesn't mean you should give up. You just need to advertise it more.
 
update version 1.1 available on App Store:

1) Teamup mode: see combined delegate forecast of 2 candidates
2) Now Facebook support: post to your wall
3) the weird bug with strange numbers after initial data load is out

charts next week.
 
I downloaded this and I have no idea how you calculate the #'s.

It seems like your heart is in the right place, but Paul does not have 226 delegates right now. And Romney has OVER 500 pledge delegates...whereas you say he only has 413.

I'd really like to see how you calculate everything.
 
@Rattesnake & in general for discussion about my forecast:

I will lay out the calculation on my website http://www.akamoto.com more precisely end of week. As noted on my page, I don't count 'Hello, I'm a delegate' messages. It is simply impossible to determine the delegates by name, location and bias. My approach is a STATISTICAL one:

That the Twitter bias will reflect the overall delegates bias ! And first ballot, also stated on my website, is clearly NOT my topic. I'm talking about a BROKERED convention with NO majority on first ballot ! Whom the pledged delegates belong to, you can get that from every MSM delegate count. That's why they count RP with 60.

BUT: Ron Pauls delegate strategy builds on stealth delegates and caucus takeovers. The nature of this is: NO ONE SHALL & WILL KNOW who's secretly a Paul biased delegate... until AFTER SECOND ballot. Coz' on second ballot (for some few states later) they can come out.

Now my strategy is to expose how many delegates should be on the Paul ticket, openly AND secretly! And because for stealth reasons there will also be PLEDGED Romney or Santorum delegates who'll come out as Paulsters after first ballot brought no decision.

As with every forecast, it FIRST always is: Speculation, of course! My argument is the pure mass of data available. It is from tens of thousands of INDEPENDENT posters. They don't collaborate, they just speak. And among that overwhelming entropy there is a fascinating order, a structure. So stable and so meaningful, that I truly believe, it can point to the actual delegate bias.

Beside: As you notice, these forecasts are very well ALIVE. They change, and of course delegates moods do not change. So what the Twitter cosmos is really doing is converging to the BIG TRUE number. It is finding its path and that path will be finished on 27Aug, not earlier.

Any further examination of if a tweet is positive or negative or kidding or serious or russian or american or nightly, Sunday, short or long... - all that is not important, cos it will balance out. And even if not today, then tomorrow ! E.g. Gingrich is having some PR today on his latest campaign cut. That obviously brings him some +5% delegates today in my forecast, although I'm smoothing over 7 days. But this is a one time effect and it will be gone soon, probably already tomorrow. I could smooth it even more to get those short effects out but I don't want to have it too much static and out of touch. I'll explain the process on my website later this week.

But as with all forecasts you got to have: confidence ! And I'm assuring you should have that. My numbers will prove to be very realistic.

Hope I could point everything out clear although English's not my first language ;-)
 
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