Ron Paul Needs to go for Romney's jugular

[kylejack]

HHOOLLLDDD!!!!!!!!!!!

+1

He can go on offense after South Carolina, when Romney has trounced the other remaining contenders.

 

[Lucille]

Ron Paul Goes Bird Hunting
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?349743-Ron-Paul-Goes-Bird-Hunting

 

[Lethalmiko]

Jesus dude. That was not a 'huge miscalculation'. It was very effective. The campaign people are professionals. Do you think you are reading things in the polling that they don't see?

I disagree. You seem to suggest that Paul's professional campaign advisers cannot make mistakes. The NH campaign was more effective but Iowa I think was botched because it was basically in the bag for RP and when the polls started showing a shift towards Santorum, the Paul campaign did not react fast enough to blunt him, probably assuming he would also fade away but apparently not realizing the significance of his late surge until it was too late. Nate Silver makes very good analyses of these kinds of issues on his blog and his forecasts so far are spot on, though his forecast model underestimated Paul's support in NH by about 4-5 percentage points.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

 

[BUSHLIED]

BUSHLIED, I agree with your insightful analysis and the broader point we are both making is that we Ron Paul supporters should look at the reality of the effectiveness of his campaign and make good suggestions that can sharpen it. Nothing should be taken for granted. Ron Paul says a lot of great stuff in interviews and I am glad he is going more on the offensive against the media as he did on Morning Joe (I wrote to the campaign to suggest this very thing a few weeks ago) but I feel one of his weaknesses is a failure to be more precise and clear to the average uninformed voters and his failure to communicate emphasis. For example, he often says the other candidates represent "the status quo" but this is abstract and largely meaningless to most voters. For some, "status quo" means welfare checks and his message to them means they will lose out. To others "status quo" means medicare.

Therefore, he must be very precise in what he means by "status quo" by saying things like "Romney is backed by the same corrupt bankers that were bailed out with our tax payer money and with secretly created $16trillion of Federal Reserve money that shall bring massive inflation". By emphasizing words like "corrupt", "inflation" and "secretly created", voters will then realize that there is massive government-sanctioned theft going on and will get mad at both Obama and Romney. The media and candidates like Gingrich are very good at shaping public opinion through certain keywords and subliminal phrases they always add to their message against Paul (eg kook, nut, unelectable, long-shot, quixotic, etc). Ron Paul does not like to have to stoop to their level but the reality is that this is a war of propaganda and his campaign must necessarily similarly wage its own propaganda war in which important keywords/phrases are used to sharpen the message.

Correct. Romney is deliberately "vague" and running against Obama. These things work in campaigns because it provide people, the US voter with a "Scapegoat" someone to BLAME...it is a very primitive defense mechanism. "It's not my fault, it's that guy over there...." We need to get Obama out etc...

Ron is not running against Obama, and not really the other candidates, he is running against the entire US Government....a nebulous term, because the government does do some good things according to people....Ron paints too broad of a stroke, sure he is running in the GOP primary BUT he is running to far to right and then too fair to left....

His message is great but needs some serious revisions...Ron is the biggest flaw to the campaign...he needs to change NOW...his victories would have been bigger if he didn't let himself get painted by the media and other candidates....

Talk about what a strong national defense means????????? Define it. Give people some clue. In my first year, I would cut these particular bases and reallocate 30% of the funds to the VA to take care of returning troops from Iraq. Then I would order the generals etc...to start a draw down process in Afghanistan and have them home within 6 months. Then I would have an assessment done on which bases are non-essential and work to have them inventoried and pull troops out there. Something that sounds practical and reasonable.

it is so frustrating because anyone with common sense knows this will get votes and mitigate the attacks on his FP by the media and other candidates....wtf?

 

[blazeKing]

It'll come, and when it comes it will be explosive.

 

[specsaregood]

I disagree. You seem to suggest that Paul's professional campaign advisers cannot make mistakes.

fwiw, huey is also a campaign professional and has been doing this stuff for decades.

 

[spudea]

the other candidates are gonna dog pile on romney. Ron Paul needs to stay out of it for now. After florida it will be 2 man race and then we go for the jugular

 

[Eric39]

Patience young padawan.

Romney is a financial juggernaut. Attacking him will only give reason for him to throw the kitchen sink at us. Obviously a lot of people already don't like him, so we have little to gain. However, if he begins to attack us they could slip the momentum to another anti-Romney candidate.

Just wait. South Carolina will be the nail in the coffin for the other anti romneys, but by no means Romney. We need to solidify our footing before taking on the boss.

You're over estimating the gains one candidate would have from being the one to attack Romney.

 

[Deborah K]

I'm not even sure we should strike on Romney unless attacked. We have power and money, but not like Mitt.

Take out the rest, make the choice clear and obvious, win.

This. By the time the others are winnowed, we'll have gained much more momentum and support. Ron Paul will then be able to turn the tide.

 

[Lethalmiko]

Some of you in this important discussion are not addressing the arguments I have given. "supdea" for example says RP should stay out and the others will "dog pile" on Romney but I have already given counter arguments to that. "Eric39" also makes a point about momentum going to others but this I have also argued against. Romney throwing the kitchen sink at Paul now would actually be good because it would provoke a real debate where he would have to confront real issues thrown back at him and it may happen in time to help Paul's numbers in SC and FL.

Romney is the presumptive nominee in most people's minds so hitting him hard now in the early stages would force everyone to reevaluate that idea and start listening to RP more. Leaving him to consolidate his position in the 4 first states in my view is bordering on suicide and even RP himself said recently in an interview that Romney wining SC/FL makes it harder to catch up.

I fear that many RP supporters are a little naive and too over confident about taking down Romney after he has amassed several wins. He has to be hit every day right now!!

 

[rp2012win]

If Romney wins SC the media will declare it over. When the media says it is over, then it is over. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy because people hear that and then it inspires them to go to the poll and vote romney even though they don't like him. He has to be attacked now. Paul will not attack him though. Romney is anointed as the establishment pick and nobody is allowed to lay an effective glove on him. Our only hope is that someone has a skeleton in romney's closet and it will be posted to youtube this week.

 

[fuzzybekool]

I believe the other establishment neo-cons are already using their valuable money and resources going after Romney for us. While they are busy fighting amongst themselves and tearing each other apart on how un-conservative they each are, Ron Paul's message stays above the fray, converting more and more people, and in the end... winning. Stay calm.

 

[kusok]

I side with the "attack Romney NOW!!!" people.

Romney almost has this thing locked up while Paul waits. I think he should have focused on him from the start, and totally 100% ignore ALL others, as they have no money, no organization, not on the ballot in many states, no phonebank, no ground game, no grassroots etc. and would thus fail anyway at some point. Like, what was the point of going after Cain??? I don't know what burned him faster his women or his stupidity, o why did Paul spend the energy??? Or why attack Santorum? Let him win iowa! Makes Romney look bad. Santorum isn't winning the nomination anyway...

 

[Mini-Me]

Mini-Me, you are not factoring in the very big possibility that the candidates who get knocked out may endorse Romney in exchange for a spot in his administration. They obviously would rather back Romney than Paul.

You are also underestimating the power of the corrupt media in shaping public opinion and you are too confident about the backfiring theory. Most Republicans watch Fox news and little else. Fox is against Paul and when down to a race between Romney and Paul, trust me they will cut Paul to pieces with more lies and smear. You cannot be entirely sure that the grassroots movement will defeat the media. If Romney wins the first four states in this contest, the states that follow may feel a vote for Paul is a waste even if they agree with his ideas and they will assume that most other people are thinking like them.

I am not convinced that voters really care about Romney's flip-flops. You tout it as a strength for the Paul campaign but it may be largely irrelevant. Romney may well lose votes to the other candidates but I posit that they will be very few because most voters are realistic enough to know that the minor candidates cannot win long term. Therefore I do not agree their stay will be prolonged. How can they do it on shoestring budgets? Besides, it is too easy to attack and destroy them later if need be and they will not be able to effectively respond, lack of money being one of the reasons.

Romney aligning with the media has already happened and they are already trying to destroy Paul so hitting Romney makes no difference to that specific issue. The media keeping the other candidates in as a distraction is moot because people can already see from the results so far that they are going nowhere. Besides, if the other candidates gain a little from Romney being blunted, there will be more attack dogs against him as front-runner, unlike a two man horse race.

I'm definitely not underestimating the media; my basic assumption is that we are primarily running against the media, and Romney is a secondary opponent. No matter what, the MSM is all about squashing Ron Paul, 24/7, no matter what. They hate and fear him more than they have ever hated or feared anyone, and the ONLY thing they care about is ensuring we don't win. They do not care whether Romney wins, or Gingrich wins, or Buddy Roemer wins...as long as it's not Ron Paul. Their current strategy is to pimp Romney and drown us out in a sea of minor candidates...but the Romney campaign has different ideas (possibly fear of a Gingrich resurgence), and Gingrich thinks of himself as more than a pawn. (For all we know he's right; he was a serious threat a month ago.) As long as Gingrich remains, he will expend all his resources attacking Romney. The others are likely to do the same in South Carolina, because they're too egotistical to want Romney to coast to a nomination.

Adding our voice to the throng of anti-Romney sentiment immediately is unlikely to matter as much as you might think: He's going to be hit from almost every direction in South Carolina anyway, which will sink him slightly, and the mudslinging between the Romney/Gingrich/etc. camps will create resentment between their voters. South Carolina may also be inherently difficult for him, considering he's a Mormon. If Gingrich and Santorum go out flailing wildly at Romney, they'll score a few hits, die out, and then be in no position to turn around and immediately give a Romney endorsement that their voters will fall behind. The bitterness will be too fresh.

Meanwhile, Romney's modus operandi is to treat us respectfully as credible and fearsome opponents; this particular strategy is very much at odds with the media's agenda of marginalizing us ASAP, and so it counteracts some media bias and lends us additional credibility in the minds of many voters. In other words, the media may be on Romney's side, but Romney's strategy for winning is somewhat undermining the media's scorched earth campaign against Ron Paul. For the meantime, I think it's better to let their strategies conflict. Attacking too early will force Romney to shift his strategy and join the media in trying to force us out of the race RIGHT NOW...and South Carolina and Florida are extremely difficult states for us where we may not survive a completely unified attack. For these two states, we can really use the boost we're getting from Romney playing us up, and we can try to gain more genuine support with positive ads.

I do agree that Romney needs to take his hits before he cruises to victory, but the other candidates - too egotistical to just let Romney win right now - will be spending every dollar they have knocking him for the next couple weeks anyway. Let them exhaust themselves doing that; they'll be successful to some degree, and we can pick up where they left off the moment Gingrich calls it quits. Romney will take his hits, and we'll knock Gingrich out of the race together, and then we can fight in earnest.

The LAST thing we want is a huge Gingrich resurgence, where the narrative becomes Gingrich vs. Romney. It may sound good to have the establishment votes split between the two for the rest of the race, whereas Ron Paul will get his usual votes...but in the end, we are going to need more than the 20-something percent we're currently getting. Instead, we really need to EXPAND our votes to a larger portion of the Republican base, and the only way that will happen is if those voters view us as a credible alternative. We MUST control the narrative. The media will lie, and twist, and smear constantly, so we're going to have a huge problem in that department...but at least we have a chance. What we don't have a chance against is a compelling "Romney vs. Gingrich" narrative that actually looks legitimate to voters, and what we really want to avoid is Romney joining the media in an attempt to stamp us out in South Carolina and Florida.

I understand that running strictly one on one against Romney would be very difficult. It would probably be best if a few minor candidates like Santorum, Huntsman, and Perry overstayed their welcome in order to splinter off the establishment vote a bit without appearing especially credible...but we cannot allow any other "major" Romney opponent to remain who can mount a national campaign, and that is why Gingrich needs to be knocked out of the ring.

Long story short: We'll most likely go after Romney after Florida and before Super Tuesday, but South Carolina and Florida may be our most vulnerable races, and we need him to acknowledge us as his main competition for those (and we need to run positive ads there IMO). Similarly, we need to ensure Gingrich does not mount a huge comeback, and knocking him out before Super Tuesday (where we can focus on Romney) is the most clear-cut way to do that.

Of course, there's nothing wrong with disagreeing: You're totally free to spread viral anti-Romney videos, etc. (The one about flip-flopping is pretty excellent IMO.) I know that doesn't help get actual TV ads on the air, but the official campaign probably wants to hold fire for a couple more states though...and personally, I think it's smart that they're doing so.

 

[TomtheTinker]

No he shouldn't. Right now Mitt & RP should fend off the 2nd tier. A 1v1 w.mitt is best for us.

 

[Taco John]

Ron Paul should do what he's doing, which is keep his boot on the heads of the rest of the pack, while being civil with Mitt and let the other candidates fizzle out before engaging in Mitt. It does Ron Paul zero good to attack Mitt, only to see Mitt replaced by Perry or Gingrich. Let those guys waste thier bullets going after Mitt, and let Ron Paul present himself as the conservative alternative to all that mess.

People are waaaay too impatient. This campaign is being run by professionals, and it's going exactly according to plan.

 

[BUSHLIED]

No he shouldn't. Right now Mitt & RP should fend off the 2nd tier. A 1v1 w.mitt is best for us.

The problem is the larger primary states...Romney will win those in the population centers, typically like the democrats do where the whole state goes red except the major cities where the minorities and wealthy liberals live.

Take 2008 Pennsylvania:

Red is DEM and
Blue is GOP:

Obama crushed McCain in PA by taking Philadelphia. I bet Romney primary maps will look like this if it is Ron v Romney. This is a major problem.

 

[Mordan]

Attacking Mitt is a waste of resources right now.

Ron Paul needs to win Texas and California.

The Nomination is over when Romney has 51% of pledged delegates. I'm sure DOug Wead will be there to remind the media. Besides the media will be happy to have something to report on.

 

[Lethalmiko]

Mini-Me, you have made some very valid observations. However:

1. Attacks on Romney from the others are not as effective as from RP because they are also tainted. For example, Gingrich and Santorum cannot attack Romney on the corrupting money he is getting from Goldman Sachs because they have also accepted lobbyist money before. Their attacks will thus have little effect since they have already been discredited and as you may know, the only thing they have on Romney is the Bain Capital issue. But imagine a TV ad from Mr Squeaky Clean attacking Romney over his links to corrupt banks. It would be more devastating than the "Serial Hypocrisy" advert that started the sharp decline of Gingrich and the media would not be able to stop it and they would be forced to discuss it just as they discussed the other one. I don't agree that their strategy is to drown out Paul using minor candidates. I think they just want to bury him, regardless of who else is there.

2. Everyone forgives a former candidate who officially endorses their preferred candidate since they figure he brings his supporters to the fold and any previous bitterness is soon forgotten.

3. Romney not going after Paul actually sends a message to everyone that he thinks RP is insignificant. Hitting him and forcing him to respond changes that narrative instantly.

4. Another important point you overlook is that when you engage Romney directly, it gives Paul some free publicity since the media is covering Romney so much. If an ad similar to "Serial Hypocrisy" is aired, it will be factual and Romney will be forced to state his positions more clearly which will expose him. He will alse be forced to address his cosy relationship with the bankers and create an ongoing narrative against him that he won't be able to contain.

5. A unified attack between Romney and the media will be blunted because if people are now seeing him as corrupt, they will not trust what he says.

6. There cannot be a Gingrich resurgence because he has already been discredited and he has no money.

7. I doubt that RP can win without actively poaching Romney voters and those leaning towards him (Romney).

8. Election history says that the guy who takes off with several victories in the early states ends up winning because he looks more unstoppable with each win.

 

[BUSHLIED]

7. I doubt that RP can win without actively poaching Romney voters and those leaning towards him (Romney).

8. Election history says that the guy who takes off with several victories in the early states ends up winning because he looks more unstoppable with each win.

This^^