Ron Paul Intrade Prediction Markets

[peterdn1]

Ron Paul is losing in the intrade prediction market, he is currently trading around 2% down about 70% from his high of 9.5%. Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney and even Fred Thompson are all much higher. Guiliani is trading around 19%.

I have seen very little fund raising lately and also not much media coverage compared to the other candidates. I am thinking of selling off my Ron Paul at a loss,is there any reason for me to hold out hope for a resurgence?

 

[Paul10]

....

 

[theantirobot]

enough with the negativity, weather or not he runs as a third party should not have any effect on what we are doing NOW.

 

[Galileo Galilei]

I expect the markets to turn around. Buy Paul if you are a bargain hunter.

 

[peterdn1]

Sorry to be negative, the campaign has far surpassed what I expected out of it. It has challenges that the other campaign don't have. Media blackouts, distorted coverage, exclusion from debates, etc, etc. I think there were valid reasons why Ron Paul was trading at 9.5%.

I'm watching from the sidelines (Canada) and I am absolutely flabbergasted daily by the blatant inequities in your media. In the past however the campaign has managed to overcome these hurdles and grow in support and funding. I think what I was looking for was a scream of protest,outrage, a battle cry. I think that was the sense I got only recently in these forums, but after NH and IOWA I sense less of that.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

Intrade is BS. They had Hillary and Rudy ridiculously overvalued... until other people actually started winning. Paul's peak came BEFORE 11/5, after which he started declining steadily. Supposedly, election markets aggregate individual beliefs into valuable information, but I have yet to see it. Seems like they just follow the news cycle, and when they don't there's really no logical explanation for it. Maybe better than polls, but that's not saying much.

 

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

It has challenges that the other campaign don't have. Media blackouts, distorted coverage, exclusion from debates, etc, etc. I think there were valid reasons why Ron Paul was trading at 9.5%.

Early on, the market didn't adjust for those conditions. It does make me feel good, to think that those watching that market are now aware of the media's role.

 

[Jeremy]

I have seen very little fund raising lately

There's a moneybomb on the 21st

 

[Karsten]

troll

 

[peterdn1]

"troll"
Actually my question was sincere. I think you could respond in a more positive manner that could provide me with more information and your base with some enthusiasm.

 

[peterdn1]

"Intrade is BS. They had Hillary and Rudy ridiculously overvalued... until other people actually started winning."

If you think someone is ridiculously overvalued, you can make some money, I think the value reflects the current information available.

 

[BeFranklin]

Guiliani at 19% is nuts.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

"Intrade is BS. They had Hillary and Rudy ridiculously overvalued... until other people actually started winning."

If you think someone is ridiculously overvalued, you can make some money, I think the value reflects the current information available.

I probably should have. Rudy was inflated even as all signs were pointing to him getting trounced in the early states. Only when that actually started happening did the stock price start reflecting it. Similarly, Huck went up only when the media puffed him and McCain came back from the dead only after New Hampshire.

I just wonder if the people betting money there know how the primary process works. Might be good for some fun and a little money, but not much predictive value. Seems more reactive.

 

[jamiewonder]

Ron Paul is losing in the intrade prediction market, he is currently trading around 2% down about 70% from his high of 9.5%. Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney and even Fred Thompson are all much higher. Guiliani is trading around 19%.

I have seen very little fund raising lately and also not much media coverage compared to the other candidates. I am thinking of selling off my Ron Paul at a loss,is there any reason for me to hold out hope for a resurgence?

Notice how many trolls there are in this forum now all trying to convince us the campaign is loosing support? It's a coordinated attack, commonly referred to as "demoralize the enemy."

Nice try, but it ain't working.

 

[lnieves]

I shorted Giuliani from the high 30 and now he's at 19. A nice profit there. The Ron Paul contract however have given me a loss. I'm holding at least until super tuesday.

 

[peterdn1]

Notice how many trolls there are in this forum now all trying to convince us the campaign is loosing support? It's a coordinated attack, commonly referred to as "demoralize the enemy."

Nice try, but it ain't working.

Jamie,

How many delegates does Guiliani have. (zero)
How is his fund raising going (His top advisers are no longer taking a salary)
What are his poll numbers in the next primary(1% above Paul) that is with main stream media, and a constant feed from propaganda channel FOX.

Jamie, you are really setting the troll bar too low. So low in fact that you are not allowing for reasonable discourse. Why not challenge what I am saying or implying. Give it to me with both barrels. Give me some reason to stay long on Paul instead of stifling the debate. I'm really an easy sell as I have already plucked some money down, betting on Paul's success. I'm in your corner whether you know it or not.

 

[jamiewonder]

Jamie, you are really setting the troll bar too low. So low in fact that you are not allowing for reasonable discourse. Why not challenge what I am saying or implying. Give it to me with both barrels. Give me some reason to stay long on Paul instead of stifling the debate. I'm really an easy sell as I have already plucked some money down, betting on Paul's success. I'm in your corner whether you know it or not.

"Give me some reason to stay long on Paul instead of stifling the debate. " Peter, you should stay-in because it is the right thing to do, and you know it.