Ron Paul effectively tied in 1st is better than leading with 1st

Bachmann's win tonight is like Apollo Creed's "win" in Rocky 1. Everyone expected her to crush...and yet, Ron Paul came out of nowhere (in the MSM's eyes) and nearly took the whole thing, leaving the rest of the establishment a little uneasy.

And remember the mileage Huckleberry won in 2007 when he did the same thing in a similar situation. Everyone "knew" ROmney was going to take it that year just like everyone "knew" Bachmann would win today...and yet the margins tonight were MUCH slimmer.

Sure, the win would have been great, but Ron's own stated goal was top 3. He could have made top 3 with less than half the votes he actually got. So he smashed his own goal for this straw poll.
 
harikaried said:
He's a Grammy Award winning country singer where people had to vote first before being allowed to attend his performance in the Bachmann tent.
Click to expand...

Ya and 30.00 is cheap to be under his tent. Bachmann being a native of Iowa and the 30.00 vote to see Randy Travis was huge. For Ron Paul to get second by only 152 votes from first place .. is also a HUGE. If you care to know what I think.

Ron Paul 2012 !!
 
This is indeed a win and it gives me hope. After hearing the news and the numbers I told my wife that this is actually better for Dr. Paul than an outright win. Had he won, the media would've dismissed the entire Straw Poll as unnecessary, non-binding, unimportant. With a Bachmann win, and everyone knows how narrow the win, the media will not discount the Poll and the media cannot dismiss RP as he came in so very close. To dismiss RP would be to dismiss Bachmann...and the media isn't ready to feed on her carcass yet...not until Perry picks up steam.

This bodes well for the campaign.
 
PineGroveDave said:
This is indeed a win and it gives me hope. After hearing the news and the numbers I told my wife that this is actually better for Dr. Paul than an outright win. Had he won, the media would've dismissed the entire Straw Poll as unnecessary, non-binding, unimportant. With a Bachmann win, and everyone knows how narrow the win, the media will not discount the Poll and the media cannot dismiss RP as he came in so very close. To dismiss RP would be to dismiss Bachmann...and the media isn't ready to feed on her carcass yet...not until Perry picks up steam.

This bodes well for the campaign.
Click to expand...

Yes, this is good. The story I see is 2 Tea Party candidates way out front of the Establishment RINOs. Bachmann likely has Tea Party support and Socon support. We are likely to get Bachmann's tea party supporters if the voters take a quick look at her resume. Bachmann's supporters, Cain's supporters are the supporters we're to try to get. In Iowa, that's 2/3ds. Iowa looks pretty good. If we lost to TPaw and Romney was in 3rd, the "tea party" percentage would be a lot lower.
 
lol at the hometown bump! Politico tweeted during her speech that all that over the top 'I'm from Iowa' stuff would make a perfect commercial for a challenger to run in her next congressional election.
Click to expand...

I don't think she's running for re-election. And if she does, she'll have an uphill climb because it looks like her district is about to get sliced up by the courts in redistricting.
 
erowe1 said:
I like the way you think.

The choices they gave us before the results were: either Ron Paul wins and the results are invalid, or Ron Paul loses and the results are valid.

What we got was valid results by that logic, with RP still being essentially tied for first.
Click to expand...

Yes. Getting second by a hair gives Ron way more positive spin from the press than if he had won.
 
harikaried said:
The main differentiation are issues related to Patriot Act and wars.
Click to expand...

Are you saying that you think that Bachmann's supporters won't vote for Ron Paul because of the Patriot Act?
It's definitely possible that we won't get some of her supporters because of wars. But, she's tea party, Ron Paul is tea party,
so we could expect a Bachmann vote would go to Paul. Some Bachmann supporters are more socon law and order conservatives, Huckabee types, who might go to Perry.
 
willwash said:
Bachmann's win tonight is like Apollo Creed's "win" in Rocky 1. Everyone expected her to crush...and yet, Ron Paul came out of nowhere (in the MSM's eyes) and nearly took the whole thing, leaving the rest of the establishment a little uneasy.

And remember the mileage Huckleberry won in 2007 when he did the same thing in a similar situation. Everyone "knew" ROmney was going to take it that year just like everyone "knew" Bachmann would win today...and yet the margins tonight were MUCH slimmer.

Sure, the win would have been great, but Ron's own stated goal was top 3. He could have made top 3 with less than half the votes he actually got. So he smashed his own goal for this straw poll.
Click to expand...

^^^^^ THIS. The only thing that could have been better is if MB had only edged him out by 1 vote!
 
parocks said:
Are you saying that you think that Bachmann's supporters won't vote for Ron Paul because of the Patriot Act?
Click to expand...
No, I'm just pointing out that's one way to convince Bachmann's supporters. If Bachmann's supporters don't want to be spied on by the government but like pretty much everything else she has to say, Ron Paul is their person.
 
Lets be polite to the Bachman folks, when she drops out, based on her positive comments about Ron, I'm sure her supporters will be looking at RP. And I welcome them to the forum in advance.
 
hueylong said:
This is a decent bit of analysis. A big RP win would have been dismissed as another 'Ron Paul Straw Poll Win"... This way, we are definitely in the mix. Plus, it keeps Bachmann strong enough to split the votes of Romney and Denethor Perry.
Click to expand...

McCain is a troll because he hates Hobbits, Perry is Denethor, gotta love the LOTR references!
 
GOP already running scared. Top story on Huff Post this morning is Dowd, former Bush advisor, says there is no way Paul will win, so just count him out. He is a pro drug and apologize to Iran candidate, so not to be taken seriously...lol.

I'm encouraged more by the large scale attacks on Paul by the GOP establishment. With Limbaugh, Beck and now Bush advisors going after him; they must be worried.
 
harikaried said:
No, I'm just pointing out that's one way to convince Bachmann's supporters. If Bachmann's supporters don't want to be spied on by the government but like pretty much everything else she has to say, Ron Paul is their person.
Click to expand...

I think Bachmann just doesn't make it. If a Bachmann supporter does like the Patriot Act, and Bachmann falls out of the race for any number of reasons, we don't necessarily want to have reminded the Bachmann supporter that Ron Paul disagrees with them. Right now, it's almost better for us to say "we like Bachmann". It's a calculated risk. We assume that 1) she'll fall apart by herself. The media might really closely examine her record. SNL is still on hiatus. 2) Somebody else might try to take her down. Romney, Perry, Pawlenty attacked her at the debate.

It's better to tell Bachmann supporters how similar Bachmann and Paul are, not where they differ.
 
Let's just hope that Cain and Santorum go back to the rocks they crawl out from under...Gingrich too.

You'll have Romney, Perry, Paul, Bachmann, and Pawlenty....Pawlenty i don't think will make it to the primaries if he doesn't boost in the polls...he may try to stick in there until IA...
 
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