Ron Paul can still get 2nd in NV. Here's the math.

[1836]

While we all wait endlessly for the Nevada GOP to get its stuff together and just report the results from Las Vegas metro already, I have some good news for my fellow political geeks: Ron Paul could conceivably catch Newt.

Not so, you say? Watch this...

The results as of this posting are:

Romney 42.4% 6858
Newt 26.1% 4228
Paul 18.3% 2966
Santorum 13.0 2102

That's a total of 16,154 votes. Almost all of which came from areas outside Clark County (and Clark County, home to Las Vegas and suburbs, is the last to report still).

Clark County has 68% of the state's registered Republican voters, and various reports have indicated that it is more than half of the caucus participation.

In 2008, 44,324 people voted in the Nevada Caucuses.

Let's say that Clark County is about half of the turnout this time, too. Since 3% from Clark have already reported, I will just over double the present vote total... let's say a total of 35,000 votes.

If there are 35,000 votes in the caucuses, that means 18846 have yet to report.

What does it take for Ron to catch up to Newt and grab second place?

If Ron Paul wins 25% of the remaining votes, Romney wins 50%, Newt 15%, Santorum 10%, totals look like this:

Romney 16281
Paul 7677
Newt 7057
Rick 3987

So in that case, we win!

What if Ron Paul gets 23%, Newt gets 17%, and Rick gets 10% while Romney gets 50% of those remaining votes?

Then it's:

Romney 16281
Paul 7300
Newt 7431
Rick 3987

Newt barely wins 2nd then, barely.


SO... the tipping point for us to win 2nd place in Nevada is to get around 23-24% of the vote in Clark County, and have Newt below 17%.

Possible? Yes. And it gets us the votes to catch him.

 

[1836]

Blimp

 

[Paulistinian]

God I hope so...

 

[mstrmac1]

Based on the math and the % of the votes Paul and Gingrich will be within 100 votes of each other by end of the caucus .... so looks like we tied for second! Paul should get around 8500 votes...

 

[Uriah]

Paul said he expects to get about 25% of the total Nevada vote.

 

[The One]

We need to get you a John King style touchscreen.

 

[Bruno]

Why are we stuck at 43% for so long?

 

[1836]

We need to get you a John King style touchscreen.

Would love one. Always been a huge political geek. I'd love to be a political reporter if I wasn't so damn involved in the liberty movement.

 

[bobmurph]

If anyone else is planning on staying up until 100% reporting The Silence of the Lambs is just starting on Bravo. In it for the long haul, might as well watch a modern day classic.

 

[1836]

Why are we stuck at 43% for so long?

Either the NV GOP is out shooting dice, or they are trying to lump results together for big spurts of updates.

 

[1836]

If anyone else is planning on staying up until 100% reporting The Silence of the Lambs is just starting on Bravo. In it for the long haul, might as well watch a modern day classic.

Hahaha! Nice.

 

[IterTemporis]

CNN has different numbers

 

[CTRattlesnake]

Concivibly, if turnout in Clark county is higher than you expected, we could be around 22-23 and still win.


Add an extra 9,000 votes to your total to bring us to 08 levels and we could win with a lesser margin of victory

 

[Badger Paul]

If this is true that means turnout for the caucuses was way down from 2008.

 

[sailingaway]

It will be close one way or the other. Nate Silver melded reported numbers with the entrance poll and came up with Ron down to Grinch but only by about 1%. Don't know if the special caucus is enough to make up the difference.... wouldn't think so, unless rounding was involved in his numbers, but I don't know, and entrance polls aren't perfect. Undecideds make up their minds for one thing.

so it is going to be close

 

[JoshS]

Newt only at 15.9!

 

[Uriah]

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/0cb9d4274bd443e58fc0481aabb5dda2/NV--Nevada-Up-All-Night/

 

[bobmurph]

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/0cb9d4274bd443e58fc0481aabb5dda2/NV--Nevada-Up-All-Night/

Can't have RP 2nd place finish as big story for the all importnant Sunday paper and news cycle.

 

[1836]

Holy shit.

Latest numbers from Clark confirm this line of logic.

We are closing the gap on Newt. It was about 1260 votes, now it is only 1240. Seems small, but a couple of updates have inched us closer. That's with 5.8% of Clark reporting....

Clark 5.8% reporting:

Mitt 54.7% 400
Paul 21.5% 157
Newt 15.8% 116
Rick 7.8% 57

Based on these percentages, if we extrapolate them to the model of 35,000 total votes (meaning 18846 more voters from the beginning of this thread's original vote count) then:

Romney 17166
Newt 7225
Paul 7093
Rick 3571

In other words, if the numbers stay similar to right now in Clark, things will be very, very close.

In fact, if they were that close, the Adelson caucus we crushed at the end of the night would be enough to win it by a nose.

 

[bobmurph]

In fact, if they were that close, the Adelson caucus we crushed at the end of the night would be enough to win it by a nose.

Poetic justice if it happens.