Romney: Skipping the Ames Straw Poll!

[White Bear Lake]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576375940207952076.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Mr. Romney’s campaign said he would still compete in Iowa’s caucuses, now slated for February, 2012. But the former Massachusetts governor’s absence from the Aug. 13 straw poll will likely diminish his chances, some Iowa officials say, while raising the odds that whoever wins the poll will be best positioned to claim the status as Mr. Romney’s top rival for the nomination…

According to 2008 election-day surveys, 60% of Iowa caucus-goers called themselves evangelical or born-again Christians. In the New Hampshire primary, the figure was 23%. In the general election that year, about a quarter of voters in both parties were evangelical Christians.

Moreover, the straw poll presents a risk to Mr. Romney: Expectations that he win likely would be high, due to his broad name recognition and status as the putative GOP front-runner. But a weak finish in the straw poll could diminish him…

Romney advisers insist he won’t skip Iowa entirely. He plans to participate in a debate just before the straw poll that has been sanctioned by the Republican National Committee. But by missing the straw poll, Mr. Romney may alienate some Iowans. “It definitely impacts your ability to compete in the caucuses,” said Doug Gross, the chairman of Mr. Romney’s 2008 campaign in Iowa. “Iowa Republicans take this very personally.”

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/06/09/wow-romney-to-skip-iowa-straw-poll/

 

[Sentinelrv]

I see people celebrating this. Don't think this automatically wins anything for us. We need to continue to do all we can in order to have a massive blowout win at Ames.

 

[sailingaway]

He 'skipped' the SRLC last year too.....

 

[jake]

Calculated political decision. He knows Paul will win! Ceaseless!

 

[Carehn]

Calculated political decision. He knows Paul will win! Ceaseless!

Maybe. Hes acting cute but he is also acting like a hare. Let him act stupid and sleep under a tree, in the meantime we will run a campaign. We should just keep running and let them ACT like fools.

 

[amonasro]

Maybe he's diverting resources into NH, a state he has a better chance of winning. I guess that 10 million he "raised" was more like a suitcase full of IOUs.

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

I see people celebrating this. Don't think this automatically wins anything for us. We need to continue to do all we can in order to have a massive blowout win at Ames.

Agreed. We ought NOT to get over-excited & keep focusing on how we can win Iowa

Maybe. Hes acting cute but he is also acting like a hare. Let him act stupid and sleep under a tree, in the meantime we will run a campaign. We should just keep running and let them ACT like fools.

Yup, this can cost this hare the race but I don't think he has any other options because if he comes & loses then that'll be a pretty big blow to his campaign so he's playing his best cards but even that mayn't work out that well for him.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Calculated political decision. He knows Paul will win! Ceaseless!

The conspiracy theorist in me says this is a preemptive move so a strong showing by Ron Paul can be discounted by the media.... I don't think it will work though. With Romney not spending like mad to bus in supporters, and the other candidates having weak ground games, a Ron Paul victory will be the big political story of the summer, and finally sway all those who like him but were brainwashed into thinking he couldn't win before.

 

[Esoteric]

This is actually bad for us. I'm surprised nobody is approaching this news from this angle..

Romney wants to discredit all straw polls to make it more difficult for second-tier candidates to use them as a launching pad. and he may very well do so. The first GOP debate was discredited because he wasn't there. Now, all the straw polls will all have an astrisk attached to their results, in that "The Front-Runner didn't participate". Also, he will take an axe to the significance of the Ames straw poll because if he comes in 5th, people will just point to the fact that he got 2x as many votes in 07, mccain finished in 10th, and the dialog will be that the Ames straw poll is not a good indicator of the nominee.

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

This is actually bad for us. I'm surprised nobody is approaching this news from this angle..

Romney wants to discredit all straw polls to make it more difficult for second-tier candidates to use them as a launching pad. and he may very well do so. The first GOP debate was discredited because he wasn't there. Now, all the straw polls will all have an astrisk attached to their results, in that "The Front-Runner didn't participate". Also, he will take an axe to the significance of the Ames straw poll because if he comes in 5th, people will just point to the fact that he got 2x as many votes in 07, mccain finished in 10th, and the dialog will be that the Ames straw poll is not a good indicator of the nominee.

I think it's pretty obvious to most of us but we can't control what he does, we should worry about what we do control & that is to make sure that we win & hopefully in as comprehensive a manner as possible. He can't run away from competition like this forever, in fact, that may even make people think that he's scared & in fact, he IS & we should lead the way in pointing it out to others & discredit him that way rather than focusing on the negative aspect of this issue.

 

[Sentinelrv]

If he's attempting to use this to discredit a Ron Paul win at Ames, then we need to spin his move as weakness. Tell everybody that you talk to online and offline that this move prooves that Romney doesn't even believe he can win. He dropped out of Ames so he doesn't get painted a loser by the media. Spin it! They do it to us. This is our chance to hit Romney where it hurts. He's afraid he's going to lose.

 

[zert]

If a candidate skips a debate then the debaters should discuss the candidate, and their polices. The skipping individual won't be able to respond because they are watching it on TV in some far off place.

Also

60% of Iowa caucus-goers called themselves evangelical or born-again Christians

Lets stay away from comparing religion to drugs. I know this isn't how it was said, but this is how it is now being heard.

 

[Napoleon's Shadow]

Lowering the bar and lowering standards. Under promise and over deliver.

 

[RonPaul101.com]

The Media

The conspiracy theorist in me says this is a preemptive move so a strong showing by Ron Paul can be discounted by the media.... I don't think it will work though. With Romney not spending like mad to bus in supporters, and the other candidates having weak ground games, a Ron Paul victory will be the big political story of the summer, and finally sway all those who like him but were brainwashed into thinking he couldn't win before.

I guess we can't underestimate the media's ability to dismiss Ron Paul. I wouldn't be shocked if they could even dismiss an Iowa win next year. We must focus on a strong "RAF! MB" next month and a strong Ames in Aug, but not lose site of the need to expand our efforts to other early states. Huckabee won Iowa last time, and we see how that turned out. Of the following NH, SC, and NV, where do we think Ron Paul will have the most success after Iowa? NV?

 

[Chieppa1]

He's scared to look, he's shook.

Also agree he's trying to discredit them.

 

[RonPaul101.com]

If a candidate skips a debate then the debaters should discuss the candidate, and their polices. The skipping individual won't be able to respond because they are watching it on TV in some far off place.

Also

Lets stay away from comparing religion to drugs. I know this isn't how it was said, but this is how it is now being heard.

Excellent points.

 

[The Dark Knight]

Bachmann will still be a major force to reckon with. Pawlenty is also going all in to win Ames with Romney's former staff. Cain is being promoted by Foxnews. Ames is up for grabs.

 

[Johncjackson]

Some wild theories, but the likely idea is that he expects to win anyway, and if he doesn't there is isn't much he can do to convince the evangelical voters otherwise.

 

[UtahApocalypse]

This is actually bad for us. I'm surprised nobody is approaching this news from this angle..

Romney wants to discredit all straw polls to make it more difficult for second-tier candidates to use them as a launching pad. and he may very well do so. The first GOP debate was discredited because he wasn't there. Now, all the straw polls will all have an astrisk attached to their results, in that "The Front-Runner didn't participate". Also, he will take an axe to the significance of the Ames straw poll because if he comes in 5th, people will just point to the fact that he got 2x as many votes in 07, mccain finished in 10th, and the dialog will be that the Ames straw poll is not a good indicator of the nominee.

I agree that is the strategy. It will backfire though. Iowans are not going to take to kindly to being set aside. Ames is not just a big political moment, its a huge Iowa moment. they are proud to be the first "litmus test" of the election cycle. I get the feeling Romney just lost the caucus.


This does not mean a Paul victory, but it does open the door for us to get in and win Iowans hearts.

 

[cdc482]

There are other candidates to be worried about who are trying VERY HARD to win Ames.
That is all I can say.