Romney Prevented the Brokered Convention

[billjarrett]

Odds are, they just won't show up. All of Romney's supporters didn't show up to Michigan which allowed the Ron Paul grassroots to slip in and take the empty state delegate seats.

What happens at the national convention if delegates and their alternates don't show up? How do they fill the slots then?

 

[slamhead]

His endorsement of McCain is absolutely meaningless where delegates are concerned.

 

[slantedview]

843 of McCain + 280 Romney = 1123.

MCCain wins...

i dont think it works like that

 

[slacker921]

It depends on how fast the media spins this.. if they convince the public that McCain has won then it's over whether it's technically correct or not.

The projections on CNN showing how Huckabee would have to finish with 50% of the vote in every primary (or higher) to get into a brokered convention assume Paul wouldn't finish well in any of the states (which... after VA, DC, etc.. is a realistic prediction) and McCain would come in second and pick up almost as many delegates. However - if Paul won TX (not likely at this point..) and Huckabee came in second then it would be a different game. Huckabee would begin picking up drastically more delegates than McCain. The Huckabee folks need to realize that they aren't going to a brokered convention unless Paul starts beating McCain. .. so a brokered convention isn't likely.

 

[nate895]

It depends on how fast the media spins this.. if they convince the public that McCain has won then it's over whether it's technically correct or not.

The projections on CNN showing how Huckabee would have to finish with 50% of the vote in every primary (or higher) to get into a brokered convention assume Paul wouldn't finish well in any of the states (which... after VA, DC, etc.. is a realistic prediction) and McCain would come in second and pick up almost as many delegates. However - if Paul won TX (not likely at this point..) and Huckabee came in second then it would be a different game. Huckabee would begin picking up drastically more delegates than McCain. The Huckabee folks need to realize that they aren't going to a brokered convention unless Paul starts beating McCain. .. so a brokered convention isn't likely.

Those projections are bogus by the way, I've checked the rules, and there is almost no way for McCain to get the delegates needed short of a win in Texas and Ohio. They gave McCain 45% of the delegates for coming in second in Texas, which isn't possible. See my delegate projections thread.

 

[Mani]

My brother votes Tuesday and I called him yesterday to remind him to vote. ( I convinced him to vote RP, but he's not into politics or an advocate or anything).

He was pretty much saying, "What's the point now?"

So I tried to spin the whole stealth delegates, we need to get delegates for RP and your vote helps, brokered convention, etc.


Now if he sees this, it's going to be even harder to convince him to vote.

What dreamworld scenario can prevent McCain from winning?

 

[nate895]

My brother votes Tuesday and I called him yesterday to remind him to vote. ( I convinced him to vote RP, but he's not into politics or an advocate or anything).

He was pretty much saying, "What's the point now?"

So I tried to spin the whole stealth delegates, we need to get delegates for RP and your vote helps, brokered convention, etc.


Now if he sees this, it's going to be even harder to convince him to vote.

What dreamworld scenario can prevent McCain from winning?

My delegate projections thread (see my last post) isn't very dreamworldish and still has McCain ~190 delegates short of the nomination.

 

[slacker921]

"The last thing we want is Ron Paul getting blamed because he took 10% of the GOP vote away in a 3rd party run."
I hate to break it to you.. but he'll get blamed for some of it whether he runs 3rd party or not. If you think the Ron Paul supporters who are working their way up through all of the local and state GOP ranks aren't going to get some of the blame then hide and watch. If you don't think Ron Paul supporters are going to actively criticize McCain after he's nominated (and help his demise) then hide and watch. The GOP will NOT accept that their message is flawed, and they will NOT admit that they've shoved the wrong candidate to the front. They WILL blame their loss on the one candidate who split their ranks.

 

[Jesubub]

Now can we put the brokered convention strategy to rest?

That won't stop me from getting Paul delegates elected in my precinct and bringing in the popular vote. It's still a great moral victory to run off the established GOP hacks from the convention.

 

[Sey.Naci]

The highlighted bit is perhaps key (unless it's just Yahoo! misreporting its source's words):

Republican campaign dropout Mitt Romney agreed Thursday to endorse Sen. John McCain for the party's presidential nomination and ask his national convention delegates to swing behind the front-runner, according to officials familiar with the decision.

Don't think all of Romney's delegates are bound. Even if they are, how is it possible for a candidate who has dropped out to commit his bound delegates to another candidate? Do the rules even allow that?

 

[Ninja Homer]

The highlighted bit is perhaps key (unless it's just Yahoo! misreporting its source's words):

Don't think all of Romney's delegates are bound. Even if they are, how is it possible for a candidate who has dropped out to commit his bound delegates to another candidate? Do the rules even allow that?

Romney has to release his delegates first, and ask them real nicely to pretty please vote for McCain at the national convention.

 

[nate895]

The highlighted bit is perhaps key (unless it's just Yahoo! misreporting its source's words):

Don't think all of Romney's delegates are bound. Even if they are, how is it possible for a candidate who has dropped out to commit his bound delegates to another candidate? Do the rules even allow that?

He can only ask, and since we know we have 24 of those delegates, at least, I don't know what the big fuss is about.

 

[slacker921]

"He was pretty much saying, "What's the point now?"
..... send a message to the GOP? They've made up their mind, but it's worthwhile to let them know there's a lot of people who don't support their decision. If they see 5% against them it's easier to swallow than 15% against them.

 

[billjarrett]

Odds are, they just won't show up. All of Romney's supporters didn't show up to Michigan which allowed the Ron Paul grassroots to slip in and take the empty state delegate seats.

What happens at the national convention if delegates and their alternates don't show up? How do they fill the slots then?

Nobody knows on this one?

 

[Banana]

What I would be more interested in would be how Huckabee reacts.

Will he drop out or fight tooth and nail to bitter end?


Billjarrett- I think I saw a rule saying that if either delegate or alternate is no show, it's a loss of vote.

 

[pacelli]

Except for the sheep factor, they will just vote for whomever they are told.

Or whomever they are paid to vote for.

 

[Ninja Homer]

What happens at the national convention if delegates and their alternates don't show up? How do they fill the slots then?

Nobody knows on this one?

I assume they don't get to vote... Ron Paul delegates FTW.

 

[Pauliana]

just....so....damned....disappointed
in the GOP.

 

[thexjib]

It depends on how many of Romney's bound delegates were Ron Paul supporters.

ding ding you get the prize

while I doubt that Dr. Paul will win the GOP nod I have no doubt that the RNC could turn out to be a Paul fest on the floor and at the writting of the platform. One thing HQ did well was getting our people to run as delegates even in states that "bound" there vote.