Right now: Rate the official campaign

[Badger Paul]

"Honestly, those don't hearten me much."

Even though they are the highest RP has ever had in Iowa?

 

[Teaser Rate]

Seeing how Ron's national poll numbers seem to have gotten worse* since he's declared his candidacy and started campaigning, I can't give his team a high grade.



*According to Real Clear Politics's poll aggregator, he was averaging 7.3% on the day he announced, he's now at 6.0%.

 

[libertybrewcity]

Seeing how Ron's national poll numbers seem to have gotten worse* since he's declared his candidacy and started campaigning, I can't give his team a high grade.


*According to Real Clear Politics's poll aggregator, he was averaging 7.3% on the day he announced, he's now at 6.0%.

Yea, out of how many polls though. I don't think there were that many legit polls of likely straw poll voters a few months ago.

 

[Teaser Rate]

Yea, out of how many polls though. I don't think there were that many legit polls of likely straw poll voters a few months ago.

RCP's methodology is very solid (picking the average of the more recent polls published by reliable organizations) when it comes to giving a campaign a good estimate of where it is and where it's going. We're currently at 6% and losing support.

The Iowa straw poll is a good target, but it isn't what the entire campaign should focus on, besides, the latest poll coming out of Iowa has Ron at 5% (PDF), and Intrade has his chances of winning the straw poll at less than 12% (link).

 

[sailingaway]

RCP's methodology is very solid (picking the average of the more recent polls published by reliable organizations) when it comes to giving a campaign a good estimate of where it is and where it's going. We're currently at 6% and losing support.

The Iowa straw poll is a good target, but it isn't what the entire campaign should focus on, besides, the latest poll coming out of Iowa has Ron at 5% (PDF), and Intrade has his chances of winning the straw poll at less than 12% (link).

No it isn't 'very solid' it takes all national polls regardless of how ludicrous, such as Fox's. It is 'a' legitimate way of viewing things, but lately Ron has been coming up in key early states and that isn't even reflected in RCPs average because they ONLY average national polls. And not many are doing those on a regular basis.

The Des Moines register poll out yesterday, for example, which is much more accurate for IOWA than others, showed Ron at 14% in third place, within the margin of error of Romney. That won't even be reflected in the RCP average, because it isn't 'national'.

 

[Teaser Rate]

No it isn't 'very solid' it takes all national polls regardless of how ludicrous, such as Fox's. It is 'a' legitimate way of viewing things, but lately Ron has been coming up in key early states and that isn't even reflected in RCPs average because they ONLY average national polls. And not many are doing those on a regular basis.

The Des Moines register poll out yesterday, for example, which is much more accurate for IOWA than others, showed Ron at 14% in third place, within the margin of error of Romney. That won't even be reflected in the RCP average, because it isn't 'national'.

The poll you mention has significantly fewer respondents than the one I quoted and more importantly, is an outlier when compared to other Iowa polls. In the last 4 polls, Ron's numbers have been 5, 6, 7, and 14%. I'd like to believe that the last one is accurate and the other 3 are wrong, but it probably isn't the case.

 

[Uriah]

Which numbers are you referring to? These? Honestly, those don't hearten me much. Romney's not even making an effort in Iowa and he's still ahead of us 4 weeks out from the Ames Straw Poll. If that's the way it plays out on Aug. 13th, it won't be a good thing.

The ARG poll has Paul @ 14% and 2 weeks ago the Iowa Poll had Dr. Paul @ 7%. I'd say these are reputable polls. I'd also say the campaign may be doing some not so visible work with social conservatives. That's a 7% jump or a doubling of his support! Pretty exciting, I think. As for Romney polling higher than Paul, the good doctor is just 4% behind him and Iowa has a tradition of not showing much support come poll time to candidates that are no shows. I believe Dr. Paul is in a solid second. Some more food for thought, Palin is @ 11% and MAY NOT be on the Ames ballot. The ballot is finalized on July 23 per Iowa GOP. Paul does have some support in the Palin camp...

 

[mczerone]

The Good:

Ron's talking like a winner, taking himself seriously.
The decision to not seek another term in Congress really says that this is not an educational campaign.
Hiring Wead
Spending/Time devotion to IA and NH

The Improving:

Starting to listen to grassroots and incorporate their work and ideas.
Starting to "pander" by focusing on those topics that are trending to people in the early primary states.
Website design is coming around, but could be so much more.

The Not-So-good:
FB page. Needs a staff twitterer. Can dominate Google+ before the other candidates even hear it exists.
Press releases to major media about appearances, plans, and events (PUT TOGETHER A CALENDAR OF EVENTS! even if it has to be altered later).
Still haven't found a way to eliminate the "longshot" and "fringe" talk from the MSM.

Overall: 8, with room to improve

 

[RonPaul101.com]

I was torn between 6 or 8 and went with a 6. I think they are much better than last time but are still missing some key elements. Everyone here has mentioned the good so I will just list some general areas in need of improvement:

The Senior Vote - As the eldest candidate they should work this area better.
RP2012 website - Gotten much better, still insist they need a REGISTER TO VOTE link at the top of the home page; make it easy on people.
Being Aggressive - This may be more for Dr Paul than the campaign but both need to be on the offensive. His opponents are deplorable in many ways, exploit it.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Much better than last time, but I'm still hoping for a very good television advertising campaign before the primaries.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Still haven't found a way to eliminate the "longshot" and "fringe" talk from the MSM.

1. Win the Ames straw poll.
2. Have a mega-money bomb or two.
3. Start hitting 15% or more in the polls.
4. Put out some really great TV ads.

 

[CaptUSA]

Still haven't found a way to eliminate the "longshot" and "fringe" talk from the MSM.

That meme is beginning to show some cracks lately. The past few interviews I've seen in the MSM have been taking his ideas seriously. That's a good thing. If they're taking his ideas seriously, it's a small leap to taking his candidacy seriously.

Ames will be huge.

 

[parocks]

Who are all those clowns? Giuliani hasnt been talked about in a while. they're talking about 2, Palin and Perry. We treat Palin and Perry differently. Perry we attack. (Perry is part of the international conspiracy according to Ron himself) Palin we don't. Let everyone else (Romney?) attack Palin. We attack Perry. And once he's out of the way, has not entered the race because we're embarassing him with grassroots tv ads in Austin and Washington DC about the Logan Act, then we have what? The establishment candidate(s) Palin, Paul, and other candidates like Cain who are unlikely to get much stronger. Bachmann will fall by herself. Santorum could postition himself as a tea party candidate, Gingrich could surprise and take Romney's spot. At some point, we're looking at Paul, Palin, Romney. Then what? Double barrelled attack on Romney. Ron would hopefully really just wail on him. And hopefully the numbers add up right. Because that would be the best way. Paul and Palin, Palin and Paul, 1 and 2. The one who is 2nd is the heir apparent for the next time. Once Romney is out of the way, Paul and Palin can continue to debate, debating politely, while using every opportunity to bash Obama. What Ron Paul grassroots could be doing is focus on getting Ds and Is in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania to like Ron Paul. Palin probably wins. She is, after all, the most famous and the most popular. But Sarah Palin plus Ron Paul tag team is more effective than Sarah Palin alone to get rid of Romney (or whoever the establishment candidate is). Ron Paul would have removed the Romney barrier, which was a big one, and could help Palin, especially, in those 6 states where it is believed that Palin does run strong with certain types of Ds and Is and Ron Paul would run strong with a slightly different type of D or I. A strong case for Palin to pick Paul I think.

Well, if poll numbers are a reflection of how a campaign is doing, then they're not doing a very good job. We're stuck in the mud in single digits and not showing any signs of moving out of there. Meanwhile, we got all these clowns polling ahead of us who haven't even jumped in the race...they could run away with it anytime they decide to enter. Right now, my sole hope rests on a great result in Ames.

 

[sailingaway]

i wonder if you ran a new poll today, now that the new ad is available to view, if you would get a different rating?

 

[parocks]

Ames Straw Poll is a measurement of organization. Can you move your bodies to the straw poll. If Romney doesn't call his supporters and tell them to go, they won't go.

Which numbers are you referring to? These? Honestly, those don't hearten me much. Romney's not even making an effort in Iowa and he's still ahead of us 4 weeks out from the Ames Straw Poll. If that's the way it plays out on Aug. 13th, it won't be a good thing.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

I won't rate them, but I think they REALLY need to get that social media guy in to do a set up of the social media sites under the guidance of whomever controls that there, of course. The idea that Bachmann's facebook should have more likes is insulting to Ron Paul's supporters.

(sorry, Indiana, went to edit mine, got confused by the avatars and started to edit yours. Changed it back, though.)

Unfortunately it looks like T-Paw snagged Mindy Finn

-t

 

[Zarn Solen]

Yes, we should go after Perry and not Palin.

Perry needs to be hit so hard, he wouldn't want to run anymore. There is plenty of real problems with him as 'conservative.'

Palin may or may not run. If she doesn't or drops out early, we need to get her supporters on board with us. Palin has been friendly with the Pauls. Lets use it to our advantage. I noticed in the silly POTUS/VP poll that some people were picking Palin as POTUS but Paul as VP.

 

[turbobrain9]

I clicked a "6" but if I had the option would have given the campaign a "7" as of TODAY. Had you asked me this two days ago, I would have given it a 4...

Keep in mind, the ground game in IOWA has yet to prove itself...the straw poll will be the real test.

Most Positive Developments:

Ron's decision not to seek reelection to Congress and his debt-ceiling ad are the TWO most important things he has done to boost his campaign credibility. Once that ad runs for about a week, I am certain you will see his polls bump at bit.

Three other develops that are looking positive but uncertain:

Doud Weed: I am not sure what he is doing?
Internal Pollster: One doesn't know what he is doing?
Ron's sense of confidence when he talks-will it continue into his debate performance is the big question.


Needs improvement:

Horrible social media development...fb, twitter, etc..
Campaign schedule??? Needs to be addressed one week out...
Website flaws have not been corrected...
Need more online ads...

Presumably the campaign is just in all reality LAGGING in getting everything done and they will catch up NOW that Ron's decision has been made...

One thing that is not being talked about is ballot access??

Suggestions:

Attack ad against Bachmann comparing her to 'tea-party' Christine O'Donnell...if you can compare Bachmann to O'Donnell, make the association that Bachmann is unelectable and gaffe prone...

A mild attack ad against Romney: Basically calling Romney front-runner status into question...he is skipping IOWA and straw polls and for someone that wants to lead has been really silent about some of the major issues facing Americans...then..you go into WE NEED DECISIVE and strong leadership, no wavering, no flip flopping, WE NEED RON PAUL, who has been doing that for over 20 years....


Then you need a positive ad with Ron Paul and his family and holding a baby talking about how he delivers babies...TRUST if the area that Ron needs to build with new voters...they need to see the soft side of RON..

 

[parocks]

Christine is more electable than Michele (over a longer time frame). Bachmann's resume is far worse than O'Donnell's (in many respects) . If we want to attack Bachmann with a TV ad, there's no reason to hurry to do so. For Bachmann, wait and see what SNL does. If SNL wants to wait until the Fall of 12, hoping they can attack her then, we'd have to move the timetable up. But I don't think so.

Perry is evil and we should destroy him, because it's the right thing to do. Bilderberg anybody? Part of the conspiracy anybody?

I clicked a "6" but if I had the option would have given the campaign a "7" as of TODAY. Had you asked me this two days ago, I would have given it a 4...

Keep in mind, the ground game in IOWA has yet to prove itself...the straw poll will be the real test.

Most Positive Developments:

Ron's decision not to seek reelection to Congress and his debt-ceiling ad are the TWO most important things he has done to boost his campaign credibility. Once that ad runs for about a week, I am certain you will see his polls bump at bit.

Three other develops that are looking positive but uncertain:

Doud Weed: I am not sure what he is doing?
Internal Pollster: One doesn't know what he is doing?
Ron's sense of confidence when he talks-will it continue into his debate performance is the big question.


Needs improvement:

Horrible social media development...fb, twitter, etc..
Campaign schedule??? Needs to be addressed one week out...
Website flaws have not been corrected...
Need more online ads...

Presumably the campaign is just in all reality LAGGING in getting everything done and they will catch up NOW that Ron's decision has been made...

One thing that is not being talked about is ballot access??

Suggestions:

Attack ad against Bachmann comparing her to 'tea-party' Christine O'Donnell...if you can compare Bachmann to O'Donnell, make the association that Bachmann is unelectable and gaffe prone...

A mild attack ad against Romney: Basically calling Romney front-runner status into question...he is skipping IOWA and straw polls and for someone that wants to lead has been really silent about some of the major issues facing Americans...then..you go into WE NEED DECISIVE and strong leadership, no wavering, no flip flopping, WE NEED RON PAUL, who has been doing that for over 20 years....


Then you need a positive ad with Ron Paul and his family and holding a baby talking about how he delivers babies...TRUST if the area that Ron needs to build with new voters...they need to see the soft side of RON..

 

[satchelmcqueen]

i give an 8. this is so much better this time around and the people involved and working for him is great!!