Reuters/Zogby Poll: Romney, McCain Tied in Florida, Paul drops from 5 to 3%

Bradley in DC

Bradley in DC

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http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1437

Reuters/Zogby Poll: Romney, McCain Tied in Florida
Mitt Romney has drawn even with Sen. John McCain in Florida's Republican presidential race, according to the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll. Both men receive 30% support.

"And there is drama in the wings as Mike Huckabee has surpassed Rudy Giuliani, 14% to 13%. Giuliani, who has invested most of his time and campaign treasure into Tuesday’s Florida vote, is finding his support slipping away. In yesterday’s tracking poll, he was in third place."
 
If the campaign doesn't start to use the money we've donated to run TV ads, we are likely to see this (declining poll numbers as the election approaches) happen in state after state.

Whether we like it or not, people don't want to "waste their vote" by voting for a candidate that can't win. They assume that the only candidates that have a shot at winning are those they see on television all the time.

No MSM coverage + No TV ads = Low single digit results.

The campaign ran lots of TV ads in Nevada, so people assumed Ron Paul could win. Canvassers were able to find supporters and the GOTV effort got them to the polls.

Without the ads, there are too few supporters for the canvassers and some they do find defect to other candidates -- the ones they see on TV -- the ones that "have a chance to win".

If the campaign announces a major TV ad buy (preferably national) right after Florida and before the CNN debate, Paul might actually get some coverage again. Once the ads start running, we might start to see his poll numbers go up instead of down.

Direct mail, radio ads, newspaper ads, walking precincts, etc. by themselves aren't enough. If a presidential candidate isn't on television, people assume he can't win and all of those other forms of voter contact won't change that perception. TV (ads and/or MSM coverage) is absolutely necessary if we want to win.
 
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No Internals

I can't find any internals to this poll, so we can't see "who" they are interviewing. Is their demographic seriously dominated by the 60+ age group, or is it more evenly distributed? Things like that make a huge difference.

The polls have been off by 10 or more points in many contests this time around due to turnout that didn't reflect their "likely voter" profiles, and Florida seems to be shaping up the same way.

Just look at the Democrats in SC this weekend. No polls indicated that Obama would best Clinton by over 20 points.

The polls are a weak indicator that need to be taken with a shovel full of salt.
 
since3 FL is a winner take all state, and since RP can't win this state (yet), it makes no sense to waste money here.

Sure, it would be nice to get a higher percentage of the vote. But that vote wont get any delegates, and delegates are where its at.
 
steve254 said:
since3 FL is a winner take all state, and since RP can't win this state (yet), it makes no sense to waste money here.

Sure, it would be nice to get a higher percentage of the vote. But that vote wont get any delegates, and delegates are where its at.
Click to expand...
QFT
 
Well,. here is the problem.. I was parked for 15 minutes in waterford lakes and when i came back my car had a huckabee flyer on it. Everywhere I go I see signs for mccain and huckabee now. The Ron Paul signs are starting to be in the minority here. It doesnt matter that Florida is a winner take all state - if Ron Paul does not get double digits in some primaries that have coverage - nobody will vote for him come super tuesday. im not just making this shit up - but how many times have you heard "I really like Ron Paul's message, but he will never win" You can say "He will win if you vote for him!" a million times, and it wont make any difference if people see that he is not winning. Its a catch 22.

Sorry to say - the media has huge control over the voting public. Those who get the most time, get the most votes. During the florida debate, Ron Paul got 1/5 the time of Romney. How will that help him? It wont. It only hurts. How will his message get out when there is no messenger to deliver the message?? If you are in the race, you should get EQUAL time in debates. However, its not the people who run the debates- so they dont give a shit if it is fair or not. All you ever hear in debates is "You dont belong here - prove otherwise." or "you are not really a republican like everyone else here" or "When are you going to run 3rd party" its sickening, and unfortunately - that is what is going to make Ron Paul continue to recieve single digit results in remaining primaries - unless something DRASTICALLY changes.
 
I am registered with Zolby. The last couple of emails I received inviting me to take a poll, they asked a few questions in the beginning like are you a mother of children 5 yrs of age or below type questions and then I am told I don't qualify for the poll.
Prior to that there was a survey that asked for choices that included pairs like McCain/??? vs Romney/??? and Clinton/??? vs Obama/??? but nothing with Ron Paul as yet.

I certainly would not trust them regarding polls.

I have received some calls polling me on my land line and Ron Paul has never been one of the choices.

I have received one on the land line asking me to vote Dem.
 
i2ambler said:
Well,. here is the problem.. I was parked for 15 minutes in waterford lakes and when i came back my car had a huckabee flyer on it. Everywhere I go I see signs for mccain and huckabee now. The Ron Paul signs are starting to be in the minority here. It doesnt matter that Florida is a winner take all state - if Ron Paul does not get double digits in some primaries that have coverage - nobody will vote for him come super tuesday. im not just making this shit up - but how many times have you heard "I really like Ron Paul's message, but he will never win" You can say "He will win if you vote for him!" a million times, and it wont make any difference if people see that he is not winning. Its a catch 22.

Sorry to say - the media has huge control over the voting public. Those who get the most time, get the most votes. During the florida debate, Ron Paul got 1/5 the time of Romney. How will that help him? It wont. It only hurts. How will his message get out when there is no messenger to deliver the message?? If you are in the race, you should get EQUAL time in debates. However, its not the people who run the debates- so they dont give a shit if it is fair or not. All you ever hear in debates is "You dont belong here - prove otherwise." or "you are not really a republican like everyone else here" or "When are you going to run 3rd party" its sickening, and unfortunately - that is what is going to make Ron Paul continue to recieve single digit results in remaining primaries - unless something DRASTICALLY changes.
Click to expand...

I agree 100%.
 
All I know is I've seen ads for Rudy, Romney, and McCain in Broward, now. None for the other candidates - including ours.
 
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